The euro fell in European trading on Tuesday against a basket of global currencies, to resume its losses that paused temporarily yesterday against the US dollar, as the focus of investors is currently directed toward buying the American currency as a preferred alternative investment, while awaiting the developments of the Iran war, especially the approaching end of Donald Trump’s deadline to reopen the Strait of Hormuz later today.

With the continued rise in global oil prices and eurozone inflation exceeding the European Central Bank’s medium-term target, the probabilities of raising European interest rates at least once this year increased, pending the release of more crucial economic data in Europe.

Price overview

- Euro exchange rate today: the euro fell against the dollar by about 0.15% to ($1.1524), from the opening price of the day at ($1.1540), and recorded the highest level at ($1.1548).

- The euro ended Monday’s trading up by 0.25% against the dollar, in the first gain within the last three days, with renewed hopes of reaching a ceasefire agreement in the Middle East under Pakistani sponsorship.

US dollar

The dollar index rose on Tuesday by 0.15%, to approach its highest levels in several months, reflecting the rise of the American currency against a basket of global currencies.

Buying operations of the US dollar are active as it is the best investment haven, in light of traders’ anticipation of the deadline set by Washington to reopen the Strait of Hormuz to navigation, with increasing fears of Iranian infrastructure being subjected to attacks in the event of non-compliance.

Iran war updates

- Trump threatens to target civilian infrastructure if Iran does not comply with the deadline later today, Tuesday.

- The Wall Street Journal: Trump in his private talks with officials has become less optimistic about Iran concluding a deal.

- The Wall Street Journal: The gap between the positions of Washington and Tehran cannot be narrowed before the expiration of Trump’s deadline.

- Axios: Trump may postpone the attack on Iran if he senses real signs of a deal looming on the horizon.

- Axios: Trump alone is the owner of the decision to begin the destruction of Iranian infrastructure at eight in the evening Tuesday.

Global oil prices

Global oil prices rose by an average of 2.5% on Tuesday, to extend their rise for the third consecutive day, with Brent crude recording the highest level in four weeks at $116.50 per barrel, due to fears of the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the failure of peace negotiations between the United States and Iran.

European interest rates

- Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank, said: the bank is ready to raise interest rates even if the expected rise in inflation is short-term.

- Data last week showed that inflation in the eurozone exceeded the European Central Bank's target to reach 2.5% in March with the rise in energy prices.

- Following that data, the money market pricing of the probabilities of the European Central Bank raising European interest rates by about 25 basis points in this April rose from 30% to 35%.

- Sources reported to Reuters that the European Central Bank is likely to begin discussing raising interest rates during the meeting of this month.

- In order to re-price the above probabilities, investors await the release of more economic data in the eurozone about the levels of inflation, unemployment, and wages.

The Japanese yen fell in Asian trading on Tuesday against a basket of major and minor currencies, continuing its losses for the second consecutive day against the US dollar and approaching the point of trading below the 160 yen level. This is as the focus of investors is currently directed toward buying the American currency as a preferred alternative investment, with the approaching end of Donald Trump’s deadline to reopen the Strait of Hormuz later today.

Data released today in Tokyo showed the continued contraction of Japanese household spending in February for the third consecutive month, in the latest indicators of the receding of inflationary pressures on monetary policy makers in the Japanese central bank.

Price overview

- Japanese yen exchange rate today: the dollar rose against the yen by 0.15% to (¥159.93), from the opening price of the day at (¥159.68), and recorded the lowest level at (¥159.56).

- The yen ended Monday’s trading down by 0.1% against the dollar, in the third loss within the last four days, due to fears of the escalation of the Iranian war.

US dollar

The dollar index rose on Tuesday by 0.15%, to approach its highest levels in several months, reflecting the rise of the American currency against a basket of global currencies.

Buying operations of the US dollar are active as it is the best investment haven, in light of traders’ anticipation of the deadline set by Washington to reopen the Strait of Hormuz to navigation, with increasing fears of Iranian infrastructure being subjected to attacks in the event of non-compliance.

Iran war updates

- Trump threatens to target civilian infrastructure if Iran does not comply with the deadline later today, Tuesday.

- The Wall Street Journal: Trump in his private talks with officials has become less optimistic about Iran concluding a deal.

- The Wall Street Journal: The gap between the positions of Washington and Tehran cannot be narrowed before the expiration of Trump’s deadline.

- Axios: Trump may postpone the attack on Iran if he senses real signs of a deal looming on the horizon.

- Axios: Trump alone is the owner of the decision to begin the destruction of Iranian infrastructure at eight in the evening Tuesday.

Gloomy data

Data today, Tuesday, in Tokyo showed the fall of household spending in Japan by 1.8% on an annual basis in February, worse than market expectations of a fall of 0.8%, and spending recorded a fall of 1.0% in January, in the third consecutive monthly contraction.

The contraction of consumer spending in Japan paves the way for the fall of prices and the slowing of the pace of inflation during the coming period. And there is no doubt that the receding of inflationary pressures on monetary policy makers in the Central Bank of Japan reduces the chances of conducting increases in Japanese interest rates during the coming period.

Japanese interest rates

- Following that data, the pricing of the probabilities of the Japanese central bank raising interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point in the April meeting fell from 15% to 10%.

- In order to re-price those probabilities, investors await the release of more data about the levels of inflation, unemployment, and wages in Japan.

Most cryptocurrencies rose during trading today, Monday, including Ethereum in light of institutions and companies strengthening their holdings of Ethereum.

BitMine Immersion Technologies (BMNR), a company specialized in managing Ethereum treasuries, increased its holdings of the second cryptocurrency after another round of weekly purchases.

The Las Vegas-based company purchased 71,252 Ethereum last week, a slight increase from the previous week, which is its largest weekly purchase since December. With this, its total holdings have become 4.803 million ETH, strengthening its position as the largest publicly traded Ethereum treasury.

From this holding, BitMine added 191,994 ETH in staking contracts last week, bringing the total assets deposited in staking to 3.33 million ETH, which is about 69% of its entire holdings. The company said it is currently achieving an annual yield of $196 million from these assets via the Made in America Validator Network (MAVAN) which it launched recently.

According to the Chairman of BitMine, Thomas Lee, ETH has been the second best performing asset since the start of the war between the United States, Israel, and Iran during the past six weeks, recording a rise of 6.8%, outperforming the S&P 500 index and gold by 1,130 and 1,840 basis points respectively.

Lee wrote in a statement on Monday: "These are good indicators, as we expect that the leadership of ETH will strengthen investor confidence and attract liquidity from the market side, with Ethereum continuing to benefit from the double push of Wall Street's employment of tokens on the blockchain and the increasing need of proxy artificial intelligence systems for public and neutral blockchain."

BitMine also possesses a stake worth $200 million in Beast Industries, and 198 Bitcoin (BTC), and a stake worth $92 million in Eightco Holdings (ORBS), in addition to total cash liquidity amounting to $864 million.

At the same time, the company announced that its shares were approved for listing on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), to stop trading on NYSE American by the end of the market on Wednesday, and begin trading on the NYSE on Thursday. The price of BitMine stock rose by 5% until the time of writing the report on Monday.

Ethereum price expectations: ETH attempts to break the trading range and retests the 50-day moving average

Ethereum recorded $84.5 million in liquidations during the last 24 hours, driven by the liquidation of short positions worth $74.8 million, according to Coinglass data.

On the daily chart, ETH is trading at $2,140. The short-term bias appears neutral with a slight upward trend, as the price maintains trading above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average at $2,085, and regained its strength after last week's decline. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average at $2,145 forms immediate resistance, which keeps the price trading within a short and medium-term range.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains at 53 above the midline, while the Stochastic indicator (Stoch) moves toward the overbought zone, indicating the rebuilding of upward momentum without the presence of a clear catalyst for an upward explosion yet.

As for the initial support levels, they appear at $2,108, supported by the 20-day moving average below. Breaking this level may open the way toward $1,911, followed by the main support at $1,741. Any deeper losses may extend to $1,520 then $1,405 as broader bearish levels.

On the upward side, immediate resistance forms at $2,389, with the necessity of a daily close above it to reactivate the upward movement toward $2,746.

Regarding trades, the price of Ethereum rose at exactly 20:23 GMT on the CoinMarketCap platform by 4.1% to $2148.4.

The American President Donald Trump may boast of his ability to negotiate to conclude a winning deal, but his recent moves in Iran appear closer to a gamble on a dice table in one of his former casinos, even if it were with dice he believed were perhaps loaded in his favor. And similar to the belief of his friend Russian President Vladimir Putin that the "special military operation" in Ukraine would be effectively settled within seven days, it seems that Trump also believed that his intervention in Iran would end approximately within the same time frame.

But unlike Putin, Trump had some reasons for his optimism—as the perfect convergence between intelligence capabilities and American military power led to the quiet ousting of Bashar al-Assad in Syria, and also the case for Nicolas Maduro in Venezuela—which is what Trump believed was in his favor to do the same thing in Iran. A senior source working closely with the energy security system of the European Union told "OilPrice.com" last week: "Trump did not realize the extent of the breadth and depth of the Islamic regime in Iran compared to the regimes in Venezuela and Syria."

He added: "But looking at what the scene looks like from now on, he still has a way out."

Mission objectives in Iran

This path is linked to the four objectives of the mission in Iran that Trump clearly presented at the beginning of the conflict.

According to the order he mentioned, the objectives began with making the building of a nuclear arsenal impossible for Iran, then moving to weakening and destroying the Iranian ballistic missile stockpile and production capabilities. After that came the objective of regime change, and finally ending the funding and arming of regional proxies for Iran. These objectives gained the support of all members of his cabinet.

The European source said: "Trump can say that the American and Israeli attacks weakened Iran's ability to make a nuclear weapon in the foreseeable future, destroyed a large part of the ballistic missile stockpile, hindered its production capabilities significantly, changed the regime, and weakened the regional proxies of Iran to the degree that they became much less of a threat than they were."

But he added: "But there are reservations, and he knows that many will consider any announcement of the end of the mission here a hollow victory indeed, if not an actual defeat."

Results of military strikes

American intelligence reports until the time of writing the report (April 5, 2026) indicate that it is not possible to confirm except for the destruction of about a third of the Iranian missile arsenal only, while about two-thirds of the production facilities for missiles, drones, warships, and shipyards were subjected to destruction or severe damage.

As for what relates to the nuclear program, the Fordow fuel enrichment facility has been made non-operational, according to the American Ministry of War. Also, the above-ground enrichment facility at the Natanz site was completely destroyed, while the underground laboratories were subjected to very significant damage.

The same applies to the Isfahan nuclear technology center, which is a vital point for converting uranium into the gas necessary for the enrichment process.

However, about 400 to 440 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60%—which the International Atomic Energy Agency lost track of last year—remains unknown in location. The agency also admits that the full scope of current Iranian activities, especially in secret sites, remains unknown.

Separately, Trump can also say that he changed the regime, but only to the extent that he removed almost the top leadership rank in Iran, including the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, and the Commander-in-Chief of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Mohammad Pakpour, and the Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council Ali Larijani. But the Islamic regime itself, with all its basic elements, still exists.

He can also say that he removed many of the key leaderships of the regional proxies for Iran and reduced their operational capabilities significantly.

Iranian pressure cards

The problem lies not only in the clear gaps in the claim that Trump's four objectives have been fully achieved, but what is more obvious is that Iran now possesses several high-value pressure cards against the United States and its allies that it has not used in this way before.

One of these cards hits at the core of Trump's strategy to re-impose American hegemony over the Middle East after removing the militant Islamic element in Iran from the equation.

A prominent legal source in Washington working closely with the US Treasury Department told "OilPrice.com" last week:

"Trump's goal was always to achieve that through expanding the scope of the Abraham Accords—which are agreements mediated by the United States between Israel and Arab countries—on the basis that every agreement will carry with it an American guarantee for economic and military security."

He added: "But with the same regime remaining in Iran and the continued falling of missiles and drones on these countries, it becomes impossible to achieve that."

Energy prices and the elections

The other big gap between any potential victory speech for Trump and the reality on the ground is the rise in global energy prices, with the possibility of them rising more remaining in the hand of Iran.

Trump may or may not be planning some way to run for a third term, but sources confirm that he is a man who cares deeply about his legacy as president.

And entering the important midterm elections in November with the continued rise in gasoline prices will likely mean an electoral disaster for him and for the Republican Party.

The source in Washington said: "Trump cannot spend two years as a president without influence, unable to accomplish anything, while everyone remembers after years that the failure of Iran was the most prominent thing that characterized that period, exactly as happened to President Jimmy Carter."

He added: "Therefore, if he does not do anything else before he announces victory and exits, then I am sure he will try to do something about that."

Abu Musa Island: The exit option

There is a strategy that was tested in military scenarios—and described by sources in Washington and the European Union as successful—that could transfer control over energy prices from Iran to the United States, and at the same time grant Trump the political exit he wants.

And this plan centers around Abu Musa Island.

The area of the island is barely 4.9 square miles, and it is located 40 miles east of the Emirate of Sharjah in the United Arab Emirates, and 42 miles south of the Iranian port of Bandar Lengeh.

Its importance lies not in its size but in its location behind the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow maritime corridor through which about a third of global crude oil and approximately one-fifth of the liquefied natural gas in the world passes.

Until the year 1971, the island was managed by Britain before its withdrawal from the Gulf, and since then it has been claimed by the United Arab Emirates but it is under the control of Iran, which is a legal ambiguity that planners in Washington consider an opportunity and not a hindrance.

And among the most interesting things about the island is the long airstrip disproportionate to its size, and it is capable of accommodating several types of American bombers and fighters. From a military perspective, the island is an unsinkable advanced operations base waiting to be used.

The potential military scenario

According to the scenario circulating among senior American military planners, US Marine forces deployed in the region can control the island.

And as soon as it is secured, it can be quickly converted into a launch base for American air and naval operations behind the front line in the Strait of Hormuz.

And in coordination with the nearby Greater Tunb and Lesser Tunb islands, the United States can establish a chain of positions to monitor or deter or neutralize Iranian threats to oil tankers.

And these threats may include:

Missile batteries

Drone launch sites

Swarms of fast boats

Naval mine planting operations

And the most important thing is that Trump may present this move not as an invasion of Iran but as a restoration of territories claimed by the Emirates, which allows him to say that American forces did not enter hostile territories.

The potential political victory

For Trump, the control over Abu Musa Island may allow him to say that the United States:

Re-imposed control over the most important energy chokepoint in the world

Ended Iran's ability to use oil prices as a weapon

Achieved a strategic victory that no previous American administration achieved

It will also grant him the political cover to announce the end of the mission and withdraw American forces before the conflict extends to the midterm election season.