The euro rose in European markets on Thursday against a basket of major global currencies, marking its first gain in six sessions against the US dollar. This comes as part of an attempted rebound from a two-month low, driven by renewed buying interest at lower levels. However, despite today’s rise, the euro is on track for its first monthly loss of 2025.

Later today, Germany is set to release key inflation data for July, ahead of the eurozone-wide inflation report due Friday. These figures are expected to offer new clues about the likelihood of a European Central Bank rate cut in September.

Price Overview

• EUR/USD today: The euro rose by 0.35% to $1.1443, up from an opening price of $1.1403, with a session low at $1.1402.

• On Wednesday, the euro closed down 1.25% against the dollar — its fifth straight daily loss — hitting a two-month low of $1.1400. This drop followed strong US growth data and a hawkish Federal Reserve meeting.

Monthly Performance

• For the month of July, which officially ends with today’s price settlement, the euro is down approximately 2.9% against the dollar. This marks its first monthly loss of 2025, and the biggest since December 2024.

• The decline is attributed to profit-taking and correction from a four-year high of $1.1830 earlier this month.

• Market concerns have grown over a potential eurozone recession due to escalating trade tensions between the EU and the US.

• Germany and France have strongly criticized the recently announced EU-US trade agreement.

ECB Policy Outlook

• Last week, the European Central Bank kept its key interest rates unchanged at 2.15%, the lowest level since October 2022, after seven consecutive rate cuts.

• The ECB has opted for a pause in monetary easing, awaiting more clarity on future US-EU trade relations.

• ECB President Christine Lagarde stated after the policy meeting: “We are in a wait-and-see position,” adding that the eurozone economy has shown resilience despite global uncertainties.

• According to Reuters sources, a clear majority within the ECB’s governing council favored keeping rates unchanged again in September.

• As a result, money market pricing for a 25-basis-point rate cut in September has dropped from 50% to below 30%.

German Inflation Data

To reassess the likelihood of a rate cut, investors are closely watching today’s release of Germany’s headline inflation data for July, ahead of tomorrow’s broader eurozone report.

These figures will indicate how much inflationary pressure is weighing on ECB policymakers. Higher-than-expected readings would reduce the probability of a September rate cut — and vice versa.

Outlook for the Euro

• At Economies.com we expect the following: If inflation data comes in hotter than market expectations, the likelihood of an ECB rate cut in September will diminish, potentially supporting continued recovery in the euro’s exchange rate in the foreign exchange market.

The Japanese yen rose during Asian trading on Thursday against a basket of major and minor currencies, beginning to recover from its lowest level in three and a half months against the US dollar, as buyers stepped in at lower price levels. However, despite today’s rebound, the yen is on track to post its biggest monthly loss in 2025.

As expected, the Bank of Japan decided to keep short-term interest rates unchanged for the fourth consecutive meeting, while raising inflation forecasts over a three-year horizon. The bank stated it would raise interest rates if economic and price conditions align with expectations.

Price Overview

• USD/JPY today: The dollar fell by 0.6% to ¥148.59, down from an opening of ¥149.47, after hitting a session high of ¥149.48.

• On Wednesday, the yen dropped by 0.7% against the dollar — its fourth loss in five sessions — reaching a three-and-a-half-month low of ¥149.54. The decline was driven by strong US economic data and a hawkish Federal Reserve meeting.

Monthly Performance

In July — which concludes with today’s price settlement — the Japanese yen has declined by 3.35% against the US dollar, making it the largest monthly loss of 2025 so far, specifically since December 2025.

This monthly loss is attributed to weaker demand for the yen as a safe haven, amid improving trade developments between the US and its key partners, and growing political uncertainty in Japan after the ruling party lost the upper house elections.

BOJ Holds Steady

As widely expected, the Bank of Japan left its current monetary policy tools unchanged on Thursday, maintaining the interest rate range at 0.50% — the highest since 2008 — for the fourth consecutive meeting.

The decision to hold rates steady was unanimous among the board members. Policymakers indicated they prefer to take more time to evaluate the impact of growing global economic risks, including rising US tariffs, on Japan’s fragile recovery.

Monetary Policy Statement

In its policy update, the BOJ reiterated its willingness to raise interest rates if economic and price conditions evolve as projected.

“The economic outlook remains surrounded by multiple risks,” the BOJ said. “In particular, how trade and other policies develop in each region — and how global economic activity and prices respond — remains highly uncertain.”

Inflation Forecasts

The BOJ raised its core CPI forecast for fiscal year 2025 from 2.2% to 2.7%, the 2026 projection from 1.8% to 1.7% (revised downward), and the 2027 estimate from 1.9% to 2.0%.

Rate Outlook

• Market pricing now reflects over a 50% chance of a 25-basis-point rate hike at the BOJ’s September meeting.

• Investors are awaiting further data on inflation, unemployment, and wage growth in Japan to recalibrate expectations.

Kazuo Ueda Speech Expected

BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda is scheduled to speak later today to discuss the policy meeting results. His comments are expected to provide further insight into the timing and pace of future rate normalization and potential rate hikes through the remainder of the year.

At the conclusion of its June 30–July 1 meeting, the Bank of Japan’s Policy Board announced on Thursday morning that it would leave interest rates unchanged at a range of 0.50% — the highest level since 2008 — in line with most global market expectations. This marks the fourth consecutive meeting with no rate change.

The decision to maintain the short-term interest rate was unanimous, with all nine members of the central bank’s board voting in favor.

Policymakers at the Bank of Japan appear inclined to spend more time assessing the potential economic impact of looming US tariff hikes, particularly on Japan’s export-dependent economy.

The Federal Reserve announced on Wednesday its decision to keep the interest rate unchanged in the range of 4.25% to 4.50%, marking the fifth consecutive hold.