The euro rose in European trading on Thursday against a basket of global currencies, holding above its six-week low versus the US dollar and heading for its first daily gain in four sessions. The rebound came as traders bought from recent lows and optimism grew over a potential resolution to France’s political crisis, with President Emmanuel Macron reportedly close to naming a new prime minister.

Amid renewed inflationary pressures facing European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers, expectations for further interest-rate cuts this year have weakened. Investors are now awaiting additional economic data and comments from ECB officials to reassess those odds.

Price Overview

• Euro exchange rate today: The euro rose around 0.2% to $1.1648, from an opening level of $1.1628, after touching a session low of $1.1619.

• On Wednesday, the euro fell 0.25% against the dollar—its third loss in four days—hitting a six-week low of $1.1598 amid continued political uncertainty in France.

US Dollar

The US Dollar Index slipped 0.15% on Thursday, retreating from a two-month high of 99.08 points, and heading for its first loss in four sessions, reflecting a pause in the dollar’s recent rally against major and minor peers.

Beyond profit-taking, the latest Federal Reserve meeting minutes reinforced expectations for at least two additional rate cuts by the end of this year.

A New French Prime Minister

Outgoing Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu said President Macron could nominate a new prime minister within 48 hours — a move seen as a swift attempt to contain the political turmoil following the collapse of France’s short-lived government just hours after it was formed.

These developments come at a delicate time for European markets, as political instability in Paris has raised investor concerns about the outlook for Macron’s economic reforms. The Élysée is now seeking to form a government capable of securing parliamentary confidence and easing domestic tensions.

European Interest Rates

• Data last week showed eurozone inflation rising in September in line with forecasts, underscoring persistent price pressures on ECB policymakers.

• Following that data, money-market pricing for a 25-basis-point ECB rate cut in October has stabilized below 10%.

• Traders have scaled back bets on further monetary easing, suggesting that the ECB’s current rate-cutting cycle may be over for this year.

• According to sources, ECB officials believe no additional rate cuts are needed to achieve the 2% inflation target, despite new projections pointing to lower rates over the next two years.

• The same sources indicated that unless the eurozone faces another major economic shock, borrowing costs are expected to remain at current levels for some time.

Copper prices surged to a 16-month high on the London Metal Exchange (LME) after Canada’s Teck Resources (listed on the TSX and NYSE under tickers: TECK.A, TECK.B, TECK) cut its 2025 copper-production forecast due to persistent challenges at its Quebrada Blanca mine in Chile and Highland Valley Copper mine in Canada.

Prices rose 0.5% to $10,815 per metric ton on the LME. The company now expects output of 170,000–190,000 tons in 2025, down from previous estimates of 210,000–230,000 tons, and also reduced its annual production targets for the following three years.

The Quebrada Blanca (QB) project has long frustrated investors, having exceeded its original budget by $4 billion and fallen several years behind schedule. Current problems include difficulties in tailings storage at a high-altitude Andean site, damage to key equipment, and instability within the open-pit area.

So far this year, copper prices have climbed about 23%, as supply fears outweigh weak demand in major industrial economies. Analysts have revised down global output forecasts following a string of accidents and operational disruptions at mines in Chile, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Indonesia, leading many to anticipate a significant supply deficit.

Concerns deepened after Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE: FCX) declared force majeure at its Grasberg mine in Papua, Indonesia — the world’s second-largest copper mine — following severe flooding that halted production entirely. The company confirmed over the weekend that all seven missing workers were found dead after five additional bodies were recovered.

Analysts at Jefferies wrote in a research note: “We are living through unprecedented disruptions to global copper supply, many of which are not short-term. The latest setback at the QB project further fuels these concerns.”

Citigroup meanwhile forecast copper prices to continue rising, potentially reaching $12,000 per ton in the first half of next year, supported by production cuts and favorable macroeconomic factors, including a weaker US dollar. Prices are expected to ease gradually in 2026 as output resumes at affected mines.

On the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), three-month copper futures rose 1.15% to $11,343 per ton (approximately $5.156 per pound).

Bitcoin fell to around $120,000 on Wednesday, down 2.22% over the past 24 hours, trading near $121,000 and marking a 3.75% decline from its record high of $126,000 reached earlier this week.

The pullback follows a strong rally that began in late September, coinciding with a surge in inflows to US spot Bitcoin ETFs — which recorded their second-largest week of inflows since launching in January 2024.

According to earlier reports, those funds saw a combined $1.19 billion in inflows on October 6, led by BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), which alone attracted $967 million. The following day, October 7, the funds experienced net outflows of $23.81 million.

$140,000 Before the End of October?

Economist Timothy Peterson said that historical models based on the past decade’s data suggest a 50% chance that Bitcoin could exceed $140,000 by the end of October.

His analysis, derived from hundreds of simulations using actual price data since 2015, shows that roughly half of the potential monthly gains have already been realized. However, Peterson also estimated a 43% probability that Bitcoin will close the month below $136,000, underscoring the extreme volatility that continues to define the crypto market.

October has historically been one of Bitcoin’s strongest months, delivering average returns of 20.75% since 2013, according to CoinGlass. For the token to reach $140,000, it would need to rise about 14.7% from current levels.

Gold Hits New Record Highs

While Bitcoin’s momentum slowed, traditional safe-haven assets continued to surge. Spot gold climbed above $4,000 per ounce, reaching a record $4,017.16 on the morning of October 8, while US gold futures for December delivery advanced to $4,040 per ounce.

Gold has delivered exceptional performance in 2025, up 53% year-to-date after gaining 27% in 2024, as investors increasingly turn to it as a hedge against inflation and currency weakness — even as Bitcoin matures as a potential digital alternative.

On-Chain Data Shows Declining Selling Pressure

According to CryptoQuant data, the Fund Flow Ratio — which measures exchange-related transactions versus total network activity — dropped to its lowest level since July 2023.

This suggests more Bitcoin is moving into private wallets for long-term holding, DeFi applications, or OTC institutional trades rather than being sent to exchanges for liquidation.

Such patterns often precede medium-term recoveries, as investors begin rotating capital toward the next promising digital assets.

Oil prices rose more than 1% on Wednesday, supported by OPEC+’s decision to implement a smaller-than-expected production increase next month, even as persistent concerns over a potential supply glut limited further gains.

Brent crude futures climbed 82 cents, or 1.3%, to $66.27 a barrel by 09:45 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 85 cents, or 1.4%, to $62.58 a barrel.

Both benchmarks had ended the previous session little changed, as investors weighed signs of growing global supply against OPEC+’s modest output hike for November. The alliance — comprising the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies led by Russia — announced the move over the weekend.

“The minimal increase that OPEC+ agreed to on Sunday was enough to provide some support for prices,” said Tamas Varga, oil analyst at PVM, in a note on Wednesday.

OPEC+ agreed to raise its collective production target for November by 137,000 barrels per day amid mounting concerns of a potential surplus in the oil market, according to Reuters sources within the group.

Goldman Sachs said it expects global inventories to rise by 1.5 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of the year, despite strong seasonal demand, projecting a surplus of around 2 million barrels per day from Q4 2025 through Q4 2026.

However, the bank noted there are upside risks to prices if Russian output declines.

Investors now await US inventory data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), due later on Wednesday.

On Tuesday, industry data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) showed that US crude inventories rose by 2.78 million barrels in the week ending October 3, while gasoline and distillate stocks declined over the same period.

Meanwhile, the EIA reported on Tuesday that US oil production is expected to reach a new record this year, surpassing previous estimates.