The euro declined at the start of European trading on Friday against a basket of global currencies, extending its movement in negative territory for the second consecutive day against the US dollar, amid subdued trading conditions in the foreign exchange market due to the Good Friday holiday.

Demand for the US dollar as a preferred safe-haven asset resumed following US President Donald Trump’s address on developments in the Iran war, which included more aggressive remarks than markets had anticipated.

With eurozone inflation exceeding the European Central Bank’s medium-term target due to rising energy prices, expectations have increased for at least one interest rate hike this year, as markets await further key economic data from the region.

Price Overview

Euro exchange rate today: the euro fell about 0.1% against the dollar to $1.1532, down from the session opening level of $1.1538, with a session high of $1.1545.

The euro ended Thursday’s session down 0.45% against the dollar, marking its first loss in three days, following Donald Trump’s remarks on the war with Iran.

US dollar

The dollar index rose about 0.1% on Friday, holding gains for the second consecutive session, reflecting continued strength in the US currency against a basket of global currencies.

Dollar buying as a preferred safe-haven asset resumed following US President Donald Trump’s address to the nation on developments in the Iran war, during which he confirmed that the United States will continue the war with Iran in the coming weeks.

Later today, the US nonfarm payrolls report for March is due, a key indicator closely watched by the Federal Reserve in determining appropriate monetary policy tools for the world’s largest economy, providing strong signals on the path of US interest rates throughout this year.

European interest rates

European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said last week that the bank is prepared to raise interest rates even if the expected rise in inflation is temporary.

Data released on Tuesday showed that eurozone inflation exceeded the ECB’s target, reaching 2.5% in March amid rising energy prices.

Following the data, money markets increased pricing for the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike by the European Central Bank at the April meeting from 30% to 35%.

Reuters sources indicated that the ECB is likely to begin discussions on raising interest rates at this month’s meeting.

To reassess these expectations, investors are awaiting further economic data from the eurozone on inflation, unemployment, and wages.

The Japanese yen fell in Asian trading on Friday against a basket of major and minor currencies, remaining in negative territory for the third consecutive day against the US dollar, amid subdued trading conditions in the foreign exchange market due to the Good Friday holiday.

Japan’s finance minister issued a new warning to currency traders, reaffirming the government’s readiness to act against speculation in foreign exchange markets, as volatility has increased significantly in recent periods.

With increasing signs of easing inflationary pressures on policymakers at the Bank of Japan, expectations for a Japanese interest rate hike in April have declined, as markets await further economic data from Japan.

Price Overview

Japanese yen exchange rate today: the US dollar rose 0.1% against the yen to ¥159.72, up from the session opening level of ¥159.59, after hitting a low of ¥159.43.

The yen ended Thursday’s session down 0.5% against the dollar, marking its second consecutive daily loss, following more hawkish remarks from US President Donald Trump regarding the war with Iran.

US dollar

The dollar index rose about 0.1% on Friday, holding gains for the second consecutive session, reflecting continued strength in the US currency against a basket of global currencies.

Dollar buying as a preferred safe-haven asset resumed following US President Donald Trump’s address to the nation on developments in the Iran war, during which he confirmed that the United States will continue the war with Iran in the coming weeks.

Later today, the US nonfarm payrolls report for March is due, a key indicator closely watched by the Federal Reserve in determining appropriate monetary policy tools for the world’s largest economy, and which will provide strong signals about the path of US interest rates over the course of this year.

Japanese authorities

Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama issued a fresh warning to currency traders on Friday, reaffirming the government’s readiness to act against speculation in foreign exchange markets amid rising volatility.

Katayama said in a regular press conference: we are seeing increased speculation in both crude oil futures markets and foreign exchange markets, and volatility has risen significantly.

She added that since exchange rate volatility resulting from these developments affects people’s livelihoods and the broader economy, the government stands ready to respond comprehensively on all fronts.

Japanese interest rates

Data released this week in Japan showed a slowdown in core inflation in Tokyo during March, in the latest sign of easing inflationary pressures on policymakers at the Bank of Japan.

Following the data, markets reduced pricing for the probability of a quarter-point rate hike by the Bank of Japan at the April meeting from 25% to 15%.

To reassess these expectations, investors are awaiting further data on inflation, unemployment, and wages in Japan.

Oil prices rose sharply during Thursday’s trading, recording weekly gains after US President Donald Trump confirmed the continuation and intensification of military operations against Iran.

US crude surged to close above benchmark Brent for the first time in nearly four years, amid concerns over prolonged supply disruptions, especially as hopes of reopening the Strait of Hormuz faded.

US President Donald Trump said in a speech that he intends to intensify strikes on Iran over the next two to three weeks, reinforcing market expectations that military escalation will precede any de-escalation efforts.

In trading, Brent crude futures for June delivery rose 7.78%, or $7.87, to $109.03 per barrel, posting weekly gains of 3.52%, marking the seventh consecutive weekly increase.

US Nymex crude futures for May delivery jumped 11.41%, or $11.42, to $111.54 per barrel, after touching $111.73 earlier in the session, marking the largest price increase since 2020 and posting weekly gains of 11.94%.

Nuclear energy has once again returned to the center of a heated debate among European leaders, at a time when a new energy crisis is sweeping the world, leaving the import-dependent European Union racing to find alternative energy sources. The bloc still imports more than half of its energy needs, making it highly vulnerable to global market shocks, such as the unprecedented disruption to oil and gas supplies currently taking place in the Strait of Hormuz amid the ongoing war between the United States and Israel on one side and Iran on the other. To keep the lights on and prevent large segments of Europe’s population from slipping into energy poverty, Europe may have little choice but to turn back to nuclear power.

The European Commission — the executive arm of the European Union — has introduced a number of new nuclear-related initiatives as part of its strategy to address the escalating crisis, marking a shift from Europe’s previous trajectory of moving away from nuclear energy. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen confirmed this shift, saying at the nuclear energy summit held in Paris on March 10:

“I believe it was a strategic mistake for Europe to turn its back on a reliable, affordable, and low-emission source of energy.”

Nuclear energy has long been a controversial issue among European leaders. Most member states moved away from it, with Germany leading opposition to nuclear power. In contrast, France has remained one of the strongest advocates of this carbon-free energy source, generating around 65% of its electricity from nuclear power. However, even the most committed opponents have begun softening their stance in recent years, as momentum builds around nuclear energy as a dual-benefit solution that enhances energy security — particularly Europe’s energy independence — while also helping achieve climate goals.

This shift had already begun even before Europe “sleepwalked into another energy crisis.” Last year, the governments of Italy and Denmark made progress toward lifting decades-long bans on nuclear energy production, while Spain showed renewed openness to reconsidering plans to shut down its nuclear plants. Notably, Germany even agreed to drop its opposition to nuclear energy within EU legislation, in an unprecedented alignment with France on an issue that has historically been a major point of contention. A German official described the move as a “radical policy shift” that would help remove obstacles and improve efficiency in shaping EU energy policy.

We are now seeing some of the results of this shift, with the European Commission clearly embracing nuclear energy as part of its strategy to tackle the energy crisis. The emergence of small modular reactors is a major factor behind the region’s changing stance and a central pillar of its nuclear strategy. This emerging technology promises to make nuclear power safer, more cost-effective, and easier to deploy at scale.

This month, a €330 million nuclear investment package was announced under the Euratom research and training program for 2026–2027, with strong support for small modular reactor technology.

The European Commission has announced plans to bring these reactors into operation as early as the early 2030s, with a goal of expanding capacity to between 17 gigawatts and 53 gigawatts by 2050. A recent Euronews report stated that the Commission has pledged to reduce bureaucracy by streamlining licensing procedures, along with providing financial guarantees to accelerate deployment, noting that 11 EU member states have already backed a joint declaration supporting the technology.

At the same time, Europe is increasing investment in nuclear fusion research and development. A significant €222 million from the Commission’s nuclear research funding has been allocated to fusion energy, highlighting the bloc’s ambition to launch its first commercial fusion power plant. According to a report by EE News Europe, this funding underscores the EU’s goal of achieving major progress in this field.

Notably, Germany is among the leading countries in the race to develop nuclear fusion — which, unlike nuclear fission, does not produce radioactive waste — and could be on track to become the first country in the world to successfully operate a viable commercial fusion reactor.