The euro rose slightly in European trading on Friday against a basket of major currencies, attempting to recover from a two-week low against the US dollar as traders engaged in limited buying from lower levels. The move came ahead of key eurozone inflation data expected to offer strong clues about the likelihood of a rate cut by the European Central Bank (ECB) in December.

The single currency remains on track to post its first monthly loss in three months, weighed down by political tensions in France, escalating geopolitical risks in Eastern Europe, and a stronger appetite among investors for the US dollar as a safe-haven alternative.

In line with expectations, the ECB on Thursday kept its key interest rates unchanged at 2.15%, their lowest level since October 2022, marking the third consecutive meeting without a policy change.

Price overview

• EUR/USD rose 0.1% to 1.1577 from an opening level of 1.1564, after touching a session low of 1.1563.

• On Thursday, the euro fell 0.3% against the dollar, its second consecutive daily loss, hitting a two-week low at 1.1547 after both the ECB and Federal Reserve meetings.

Monthly performance

• For October, the euro is currently down more than 1.3% against the dollar, on course for its first monthly decline in three months.

• Downward pressure this month was driven by political instability in France — the eurozone’s second-largest economy — and rising geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe amid intensifying conflict in Ukraine.

• Investors also increased dollar holdings as a preferred safe-haven asset amid heightened global risks, including renewed US-China trade friction and the ongoing US government shutdown.

European Central Bank

The ECB confirmed on Thursday that it would leave rates unchanged at 2.15%, as expected, noting that inflation is now approaching the 2% medium-term target and that the Governing Council’s assessment of inflation expectations remains broadly unchanged.

Christine Lagarde

ECB President Christine Lagarde said on Thursday that the bank “remains in a good position” and that risks to the economy are now “more balanced than before.” She added that the ECB will continue taking the necessary steps to preserve stability amid a volatile global environment.

Interest-rate outlook

• Market pricing currently reflects less than a 10% probability of a 25-basis-point ECB rate cut in December.

• Traders have largely scaled back bets on further policy easing, signaling that this year’s rate-cut cycle may already be over.

Eurozone inflation

To reassess these expectations, investors await the release of October inflation data later today, which will help determine how inflationary pressures are evolving across the bloc.

At 10:00 GMT, the eurozone consumer price index (CPI) is expected to show a 2.1% annual rise in October, down slightly from 2.2% in September, while core inflation is projected to ease to 2.3% from 2.4% previously.

Outlook for the euro

According to Economies.com: if inflation readings come in hotter than expected, market expectations for a December rate cut will likely diminish further — a development that would support additional gains for the euro in the foreign-exchange market.

The Japanese yen rose in Asian trading on Friday against a basket of major currencies, attempting to recover from its eight-month low against the US dollar and heading for its first gain in three sessions. The rebound came as traders bought the yen at low levels, encouraged by a warning from Japan’s finance minister and stronger-than-expected inflation data from Tokyo.

Despite the uptick, the yen remains on track to post a second consecutive monthly loss, pressured by expectations of expansive fiscal policies under newly appointed Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, the first woman in Japan’s history to hold the position, who is preparing a massive stimulus package to support the world’s fourth-largest economy.

In line with expectations, the Bank of Japan on Thursday left its monetary policy unchanged, keeping interest rates at 0.50% — the highest level since 2008 — for the sixth consecutive meeting.

Price overview

• USD/JPY fell 0.3% to ¥153.65, after opening at ¥154.11 and reaching an intraday high of ¥154.17.

• On Thursday, the yen lost 0.9% against the dollar, marking a second straight decline and hitting its lowest level in eight months at ¥154.45, pressured by the outcomes of both the US Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan meetings.

Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama

Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said Friday the government is “closely watching currency market movements with great concern,” marking her strongest statement on the yen since taking office last week.

“We have recently seen rapid, one-sided moves,” Katayama said in a regular press briefing. “The government is paying close attention to excessive volatility and disorderly movements in the forex market, including those driven by speculation.”

Asked about the Bank of Japan’s decision to keep rates steady, Katayama said the move was “very reasonable under current conditions.”

Tokyo inflation

Fresh data showed Tokyo’s core consumer price index rose 2.8% year-on-year in October — the fastest pace in four months and above market expectations of 2.6%, following a 2.5% increase in September.

The renewed acceleration in prices adds pressure on the Bank of Japan to consider further rate hikes this year.

• Following the data, market pricing for a 25-basis-point rate increase at the BOJ’s December meeting rose from 50% to 55%.

• Investors are now awaiting additional data on inflation, wages, and employment before adjusting expectations further.

Monthly performance

For October, the yen is still down more than 4% against the dollar, heading for a second straight monthly loss.

Sanae Takaichi’s historic win

Japan entered new political territory this month as Sanae Takaichi became the country’s first female prime minister after winning a decisive parliamentary vote. According to NHK, Takaichi secured 237 votes in the first round, eliminating the need for a runoff in the 465-seat lower house.

Her victory followed a coalition deal between the ruling Liberal Democratic Party and the Japan Innovation Party, under which she agreed to some of the latter’s policies — including reducing the number of parliamentary seats, offering free secondary education, and freezing the food consumption tax for two years.

A long-time ally of the late Shinzo Abe, Takaichi supports stimulus-driven “Abenomics-style” policies, fueling expectations of continued expansionary fiscal measures that may buoy Japanese equities but keep the yen under pressure due to prolonged monetary accommodation.

New stimulus package

According to government sources cited by Reuters, Takaichi’s administration is preparing an economic stimulus package expected to exceed ¥13.9 trillion (about $92 billion) to help households cope with rising prices and inflation. The final size is still being discussed, with an announcement expected early next month.

Bank of Japan policy

At Thursday’s meeting, the BOJ maintained its current policy stance by a 7-2 vote, with two board members again advocating for a hike to 0.75%. The split underscores growing pressure within the bank to normalize policy.

In its quarterly outlook, the BOJ raised growth forecasts for the current fiscal year and upgraded its inflation projection for fiscal 2026, now expecting core inflation to stay above 2% in the latter half of its forecast period through March 2027.

Governor Kazuo Ueda offered little guidance in his post-meeting press conference on the timing of the next rate increase, which added to pressure on the yen.

Soybean futures in Chicago surged to their highest level since June on Thursday after the US Treasury Department announced that China had agreed to purchase 25 million metric tons of American soybeans annually under a new three-year agreement — one of the most significant outcomes of the recent trade rapprochement between Washington and Beijing following months of tension.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said China would immediately begin buying 12 million tons of soybeans between now and January, adding that the deal “ends years of using American farmers as a political bargaining chip,” referring to previous trade disputes that sharply reduced US agricultural exports to China.

On Thursday, January soybean futures jumped 2.3% to $13.02 per bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT), the highest since early June, supported by optimism over renewed Chinese demand and tightening US inventories.

Analysts said the agreement could provide strong momentum for US farm exports and bolster prices in the near term, especially as concerns mount over supply risks in South America due to dry weather in Brazil.

“China’s return as a major buyer at this scale will help rebalance the market and offer lasting price support through the first quarter of 2026, unless Beijing backtracks on its commitments as it did in previous deals,” said Michael Zeng, agricultural commodities analyst at StoneX Group.

China was previously the largest buyer of US soybeans before the 2018 trade war, when it imposed tariffs on American agricultural imports, leading Beijing to boost purchases from Brazil and Argentina instead.

The new agreement comes as the United States seeks to narrow its trade deficit with China and expand agricultural exports, while Beijing aims to secure stable supplies of grains and oilseeds amid global market disruptions and rising import costs.

OPEC+ meets this week to decide oil production levels for December, marking its first gathering since the United States imposed sanctions on Russia’s two largest oil companies — a move targeting the alliance’s second-biggest producer after Saudi Arabia.

The coalition, which includes OPEC members and allied producers led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, has managed global oil supplies for nearly a decade by curbing output to ensure what it calls “market stability” — a phrase that effectively means supporting prices or preventing a collapse.

Loss of market share

Since the price crash during the COVID-19 pandemic and the brief market-share war that followed, OPEC+ has maintained varying degrees of output cuts. Not all members have agreed to sacrifice revenue and market share.

Two years ago, eight key producers — including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, and Algeria within OPEC, along with Russia, Kazakhstan, and Oman outside it — formed a smaller sub-alliance within OPEC+ to coordinate what became known as “voluntary cuts.”

Yet over the past two years, high oil prices have encouraged strong growth in US shale production, gradually eroding OPEC+’s share of the global market.

By spring 2025, Saudi Arabia appeared increasingly frustrated with the burden of carrying the largest share of these cuts, as both its revenues and market position declined.

In April 2025, the alliance began gradually unwinding its production curbs, announcing cumulative quota increases of 2.7 million barrels per day so far. However, actual output increases have been smaller, as some producers have struggled with capacity constraints or were still compensating for past overproduction.

In early October, OPEC+ maintained its cautious approach, approving a modest 137,000 barrels per day increase for November — a move aimed at preventing price weakness amid softer post-summer demand and expectations of oversupply.

Despite signs of slowdown, the group reiterated that it would continue easing cuts “in light of stable economic forecasts and healthy market fundamentals, as reflected in low inventory levels” — language it has repeated in every statement since April.

The organization continues to emphasize flexibility, reserving the right to pause or reverse any further increases if conditions warrant.

The group will meet on November 2 to finalize December production, and Reuters sources within the alliance indicate that members are leaning toward another small increase of roughly 137,000 barrels per day.

Recovering market share?

Bloomberg Opinion’s Javier Blas argues that Saudi Arabia is unlikely to reverse the recent production increases unless Brent crude falls and stays in the low-$50 range.

If Brent drops to that level, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) would likely fall below $50 per barrel, which would slow US shale output growth — as industry officials say even $60 is insufficient to sustain expansion.

In recent weeks, WTI has hovered in the high-$50 range but climbed above $60 late last week following US sanctions on Russia’s Rosneft and Lukoil, imposed over what Washington described as Moscow’s “lack of seriousness” in ending the war in Ukraine.

Those sanctions are set to take effect on November 21, creating new uncertainty in global supply chains and among major buyers of Russian oil such as India and China.

The unclear impact of the sanctions has added a fresh geopolitical layer to oil pricing, with traders still uncertain how enforcement will unfold and to what extent buyers will comply.

A cautious balance

The recent rebound in prices gives OPEC+ justification to continue unwinding cuts slowly — even symbolically — benefiting mainly Saudi Arabia, which holds the largest spare production capacity.

Analysts expect the alliance to keep adding small monthly increments until the market sees clearer signs of oversupply or until the full impact of US sanctions on Russia becomes evident.

While most analysts and investment banks agree that a supply glut is likely on the horizon, the exact scale remains uncertain — particularly if Russia diverts more crude into the so-called “shadow trade” outside official export channels.