The Australian dollar rose broadly in the Asian market on Thursday against a basket of global currencies, extending its gains for the fourth consecutive day against its American counterpart and hitting a four-year high, benefiting from the decline in the levels of the American currency in the foreign exchange market.

The currency was supported by strong expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will raise interest rates during its upcoming May meeting, especially after the release of significant data in Australia showing labor market resilience despite the pressures of the "Iranian war" and rising energy costs.

Price Overview

- Australian Dollar Exchange Rate Today: The Australian dollar rose against its American counterpart by 0.45% to (0.7198), the highest since June 2022, from today's opening price of (0.7165), and recorded a low of (0.7163).

- The Australian dollar ended Wednesday's trading up by 0.6% against the U.S. dollar, marking its third consecutive daily gain amid positive risk sentiment and U.S. stocks climbing to new record highs.

The U.S. Dollar

The dollar index fell on Thursday by more than 0.2%, deepening its losses for the ninth consecutive session and recording a six-week low of 97.83 points, reflecting the continued drop in the levels of the American currency against a basket of major and minor currencies.

Optimism has increased in the markets regarding the probability of the United States and Iran reaching a peace agreement, prompting investors to reduce their holdings of the American currency as a safe haven and move toward higher-risk assets.

U.S. President Donald Trump stated that the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran is "about to end," while the White House expressed optimism about the possibility of reaching a deal, noting the likelihood of additional rounds of direct talks in Pakistan.

Khoon Goh, head of Asia research at ANZ Bank, said: Markets are now essentially ignoring the conflict and expecting some kind of settlement. Goh added: With markets pricing out the impact of the war, we may see more pressure on the dollar and a resumption of the downward trend that began roughly last year.

Australian Data

Significant economic data released today in Sydney showed:

- The unemployment rate remained stable at 4.3% in March, aligning perfectly with market expectations and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).

- The Australian economy added 17,900 new jobs in March, very close to the forecast of 20,000 jobs.

- Full-time employment saw a qualitative jump, adding 52,500 jobs in March after losing 27,700 jobs in February.

- The consumer inflation expectations index for April recorded an increase to 5.9% compared to 5.2% in the previous month. This reading for inflation expectations is the highest since late 2022, increasing pressure on the RBA.

The Chinese Economy

The Chinese economy—the largest trading partner of the Australian economy—recorded strong growth at a rate of 5% in the first quarter of 2026, exceeding analyst expectations of 4.8%, after recording growth of 4.5% in the final quarter of last year.

Australian Interest Rates

- Following the above data, the pricing of the probability of the Reserve Bank of Australia raising interest rates by about 25 basis points in May rose from 55% to 70%.

- In order to re-price those probabilities, investors await the release of more data on the levels of inflation, unemployment, and wages in Australia.

- The Reserve Bank of Australia has raised interest rates twice this year to 4.1%, as a result of the impact of the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran on global oil trade and rising fuel prices across the country.

The S&P 500 closed at a new record high on Wednesday, marking its first record close since the start of the conflict between the United States and Iran, as investors returned to high-risk assets bolstered by hopes of de-escalation and strong earnings expectations.

The index recorded a closing level of 7,022.95 points, rising by 0.8% and surpassing its previous record close in January, according to LSEG data. It also hit an intra-day record high of 7,026.24 points.

The report noted that U.S. President Donald Trump stated that talks with Iran to end the war may resume soon, following the failure of the first round of negotiations held in Islamabad. Markets had retreated sharply last month when hostilities broke out, causing a historic shock to oil markets and reviving concerns over inflation and U.S. interest rate expectations.

The S&P 500 had declined by as much as 9% after the conflict erupted on February 28, stopping just short of the traditional 10% correction level. However, both the Nasdaq Composite and the Dow Jones Industrial Average did reach correction territory (10%) during the sell-off.

Markets received support from strong corporate earnings outlooks. Executives at major banks reported that the American consumer remains resilient despite the oil price shock, and that deal activity and initial public offerings remain robust.

According to LSEG data, S&P 500 companies are expected to generate total profits of $605.1 billion during the first quarter of the year, compared to estimates of $598.7 billion at the start of the quarter.

Several financial institutions viewed the previous decline as an opportunity to buy stocks at lower prices, despite the continued risks of geopolitical escalation, which could test market confidence if renewed.

Analysts warned that even if geopolitical risks recede, pre-war concerns could return to the forefront, particularly those related to the impact of artificial intelligence.

Private credit firms also face increasing pressure due to the risk of investors withdrawing funds amid general market anxiety.

Jeff Schulze, head of economic and market strategy at ClearBridge Investments, said: “Markets rarely wait for full information. Despite continued uncertainty regarding energy disruptions, they see risks receding and the most likely trend is upward.”

He added that the current earnings season has “started well so far.”

Bank of America shares rose following the announcement of first-quarter profit growth, and Morgan Stanley shares climbed after strong results bolstered the financial sector of the S&P 500.

According to preliminary data, the S&P 500 rose by 54.83 points, or 0.79%, to close at 7,022.21 points, while the Nasdaq Composite jumped 375.34 points, or 1.59%, to reach 24,014.43 points. In contrast, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 75.44 points, or 0.16%, to close at 48,460.55 points.

The Volatility Index (VIX) dropped to its lowest level since February 26, reflecting a decline in demand for risk hedging.

The technology sector in the S&P 500 performed strongly, supported by a rise in software stocks, while the industrials and basic materials sectors lagged behind.

Nuclear energy is gearing up for a major comeback in the United States. President Donald Trump has made reviving the domestic nuclear energy sector a key goal of his administration, with the stated objective of returning the U.S. to a position of global leadership in the field. The idea is that modernizing and expanding the aging American nuclear fleet will give the country a significant boost in terms of energy independence and sovereignty.

However, the nuclear energy sector in the United States — like the vast majority of the nuclear sector globally — relies heavily on imported nuclear fuel, particularly from Kazakhstan and Russia. Uranium prices are also rising in global markets due to the resurgence of interest in nuclear power worldwide. The World Nuclear Association expects global uranium demand to rise by 28% by 2030 and nearly double by 2040, leading to increased competition among nuclear energy producers around the world.

Currently, there are only five facilities in the world that convert uranium on a large scale, and Russia controls nearly half of the global capacity, creating a major resource bottleneck and sensitive geopolitical vulnerabilities. As a result, "the U.S. nuclear energy sector faces fragility in fuel supply chains, with a shortage of uranium supplies, geopolitical risks, and rising costs that threaten both existing reactors and the development of advanced reactors," according to a January report from Stanford Energy.

Furthermore, China and Russia have secured nuclear fuel supply chains over decades, at a time when Western countries were retreating from the use of nuclear energy. With the world now returning to embrace this controversial source, it may be too late for Europe and the United States to gain a foothold in key uranium markets. Benjamin Godwin of Prism Strategic Intelligence told the Financial Times last year: "Russian and Chinese players were very keen to secure access to resources in Central Asia and Africa, creating a highly competitive environment."

Therefore, achieving true independence in nuclear energy requires the United States to develop an integrated domestic nuclear fuel sector. Fortunately, the United States possesses vast quantities of uranium, but building supply chains to extract and enrich this uranium requires significant time and costs. To move these chains inward efficiently and affordably, several approaches are needed, including extracting new uranium resources as well as recycling spent nuclear fuel. The United States is making remarkable progress in both areas.

This month, uranium production operations began at the largest site of its kind relying on In-Situ Recovery (ISR) technology in the country in more than a decade. A report by Interesting Engineering published last week stated that "the estimated resources of the project, located on an area of 20,000 acres, currently stand at 6,155,000 pounds of U3O8, the most stable form of uranium oxide." The Burke Hollow site in South Texas is the latest project of Uranium Energy Corporation, which also owns a similar site in Wyoming.

U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said: "UEC’s recent achievements in Texas and Wyoming highlight the importance of uranium production as a foundation for a secure and domestic nuclear fuel cycle. As we continue to rebuild the full fuel cycle, including critical downstream infrastructure, this progress proves we can build it here and lead from within."

The United States is also funding advanced research into recycling spent nuclear fuel, which could enhance resource efficiency by up to 95%. Assistant Secretary of Energy for Nuclear Energy Ted Garrish told World Nuclear News in February: "Used nuclear fuel represents a massive untapped resource in the United States." He added: "The Trump administration is taking a practical approach to ensure our resources are used in the most efficient ways possible to enhance American energy independence and support economic growth."

These measures combined are expected to be transformative for the independence of the U.S. nuclear energy sector, which is the largest in the world. These efforts may also represent an important step toward boosting clean energy production at a time of increasing sentiment against renewable energy, especially since nuclear energy does not produce carbon dioxide emissions.

Copper prices declined slightly, trimming part of their strong monthly gains, at a time when traders await the potential resumption of peace negotiations between the United States and Iran.

The industrial metal fell by 0.3% by late morning London trading, after having earlier risen by as much as 0.8% to exceed the February 27 closing level of $13,343.50 per ton, the day before the start of U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran.

Most base metals have witnessed sharp fluctuations since the outbreak of the conflict, as prices initially declined due to concerns over supply chain disruptions and slowing economic growth, before risk appetite returned following the temporary truce reached last week, supported by reports stating that Washington and Tehran are seeking to arrange a second round of talks in the coming days, alongside signs of improved Chinese demand.

Fan Rui, an analyst at Guoyuan Futures, said: "Copper has begun to recover; after the rebuilding of inventories in China, inflation concerns have receded with the progress of peace talks," adding that "the worst is over."

In China, manufacturing companies increased their purchases after domestic copper prices fell to less than 100,000 yuan per ton in recent weeks due to the war, leading to a significant decline in domestic inventories.

Despite the short-term economic impact of the energy crisis, this shock may support copper demand growth in the long term, with the acceleration of economies' shift toward electrification and clean energy, according to Henry Fan, an analyst at Trafigura Group, during an industry conference in Santiago.

He explained that "all the major trends that were supporting copper prices will now accelerate," noting that there is a greater incentive than ever to enhance reliance on electricity and reduce the impact of geopolitical shocks on energy consumption.

The market is also monitoring the potential for a new wave of copper imports into the United States, after prices on the Comex exchange in New York recorded a premium of $283 per ton compared to London Metal Exchange prices, the highest level since December.

U.S. President Donald Trump's plans to impose tariffs on copper imports led to a rise in Comex prices last year, allowing traders to achieve significant profits by shipping copper to U.S. warehouses. Investors still expect a decision regarding tariffs on refined copper by the end of June, when the U.S. Department of Commerce provides an update on the copper market.

By 10:52 AM London time, copper fell by 0.3% to $13,248 per ton on the London Metal Exchange, while Comex prices declined by 0.2%.

As for aluminum—which has seen a strong rise since the beginning of the war due to concerns regarding supplies resulting from the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on smelters in the Gulf region—it rose by 0.2% to $3,568.50 per ton.

JPMorgan analysts indicated that the aluminum market may have reached a "point of no return" in terms of supplies during the coming quarters, emphasizing that the global market will face a sharp and prolonged shortage regardless of the developments in shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.

The bank expects a supply deficit of 1.9 million tons in 2026, the largest since 2000 when considering market size, with the possibility of prices exceeding the level of $4,000 per ton during the coming months, according to estimates by the analyst team led by Gregory Shearer.