Bitcoin came under renewed pressure on Thursday, trading near 110,600 dollars and testing its main ascending trendline support. Rising geopolitical tensions and renewed trade friction between the United States and China have weakened risk appetite among investors, limiting momentum in high-risk assets.

According to a report from Copper Research, Bitcoin could retest the 100,000-dollar level before regaining upward momentum.

Slowing Price Recovery Amid Weak Risk Appetite

Bitcoin’s rebound slowed this week as escalating tensions between Russia and Ukraine, coupled with renewed trade disputes between Washington and Beijing, pushed the world’s largest cryptocurrency to around 110,600 dollars on Thursday.

US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth warned Russia on Wednesday of “potential consequences” if it continues its aggression in Ukraine, while President Donald Trump said earlier this week that he is considering supplying Kyiv with long-range Tomahawk missiles.

Meanwhile, the US–China trade conflict deepened as both sides imposed reciprocal port tariffs this week. Trump described the relationship with China as a “full-scale trade war” and said he is considering halting cooking oil trade with Beijing in response to its refusal to buy American soybeans.

In contrast, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent proposed suspending US tariffs on Chinese imports for more than three months if Beijing abandons its plans to impose strict export restrictions on rare earth elements.

This combination of geopolitical and trade conflicts between the world’s two largest economies has created uncertainty and risk aversion across markets — conditions that typically weigh on high-risk assets like Bitcoin.

Copper Report: A Healthy Corrective Pullback Possible

Copper Research’s Tuesday report suggested that historical patterns point to a potential short-term dip, projecting a retest of the 100,000-dollar level this month — near long-term support around the 52-week moving average. The firm noted that similar corrective phases occurred in 2014, 2018, and 2022.

The report stated: “A decisive break below the 52-week average would represent a structural market shift similar to those seen in 2014, 2018, and 2022, which is unlikely to occur before 2026.”

Fadi Abu Alfa, head of research at Copper, told FXStreet: “Despite recent market turbulence, Bitcoin’s movement remains consistent with long-term patterns converging near the 52-week average. With strong ETF inflows and supportive technical indicators, a temporary pullback toward 100,000 dollars should be viewed as a healthy correction rather than a cause for concern.”

Optimism Indicators: Funding Rates Fall to Lowest Since FTX Collapse

Despite pressure, some signs of optimism have emerged. A wave of leverage unwinding has triggered unprecedented stress in futures markets, with funding rates falling to levels unseen since the FTX collapse in late 2022.

Annualized funding rates have turned deeply negative, meaning traders are paying a premium to maintain short positions after excessive long positions were flushed out. This marks a sharp sentiment shift as participants reduce risk amid forced liquidations.

Historically, such extreme conditions often represent peak fear and the final phase of deleveraging — typically paving the way for a medium-term recovery.

Technical Outlook: Momentum Indicators Point to Further Correction

Bitcoin faced rejection at the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) near 115,154 dollars on Tuesday, falling about 4% the following day.

At the time of writing, the price was trading around 110,600 dollars, approaching the ascending trendline.

If the price breaks and closes below the trendline, the decline could extend toward daily support at 107,245 dollars — close to the 200-day EMA at 108,084 dollars.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 40 indicates growing bearish momentum, while the MACD has maintained a negative crossover since last week, reinforcing the corrective outlook.

On the upside, if the price regains strength, it may retest the 50-day EMA near 115,154 dollars.

Most US stock indexes rose during Thursday’s session amid strong demand for technology shares, particularly artificial intelligence companies.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that President Donald Trump’s administration plans to intervene in certain sectors and impose minimum price floors on products in response to what he described as China’s “market manipulation.”

Amid ongoing trade tensions, China accused the US government of causing global alarm over restrictions on rare earth metal exports.

The third-quarter 2025 earnings season kicked off this week, with several major banks reporting strong profits and revenues.

This came despite the US government shutdown entering its sixteenth day with no signs of resolution. Bessent said the shutdown is costing the American economy 15 billion dollars per day.

Separately, Federal Reserve Board member Steven Miran said on Thursday that two additional interest rate cuts this year appear realistic, citing clear signs of a significant slowdown in inflation.

Miran added that while he personally favors a 50-basis-point rate cut at the upcoming meeting, he expects the Fed will instead opt for a 25-basis-point reduction.

As of 16:37 GMT, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.2% (83 points) to 46,337 points, the broader S&P 500 index gained 0.3% (18 points) to 6,689 points, and the Nasdaq Composite climbed 0.5% (112 points) to 22,782 points.

Bitcoin fell on Thursday, extending the pressure it has faced since last week’s sudden crash, as renewed US–China trade tensions fueled risk aversion and eroded investor appetite across cryptocurrency markets.

Digital asset traders remain extremely cautious after 16 billion dollars in long positions were liquidated last week, prompting them to avoid major short-term bets.

Still, Bitcoin stayed above last week’s lows, supported by some optimism over a potential US interest rate cut. The world’s largest cryptocurrency dropped 1.3% to 111,031 dollars as of 1:10 a.m. Eastern Time (05:10 GMT), after plunging to 103,000 dollars last week.

Bitcoin Under Pressure as Sentiment Weakens After Sudden Crash

Bitcoin and the broader crypto market have struggled to post gains this week following a record 16-billion-dollar long-position liquidation during last week’s flash crash.

The collapse was triggered by US President Donald Trump’s threat to impose 100% tariffs on China, which reignited fears of a full-scale trade war.

Washington and Beijing have remained sharply divided this week, with China vowing to retaliate in any trade conflict while US officials continue to push for further economic decoupling from Beijing.

Bitcoin has also been weighed down by profit-taking after reaching record highs above 126,000 dollars earlier this month.

The Crypto Fear and Greed Index published by CoinMarketCap slipped into “fear” territory this week, reflecting continued investor caution.

US Justice Department Seizes $15 Billion in Bitcoin in Fraud Case

The US Department of Justice announced on Wednesday that it had seized 127,271 Bitcoins — worth nearly 15 billion dollars — as part of an investigation into a major Cambodia-based fraud operation, marking the largest cryptocurrency seizure in history.

The department charged Chen Zhi, founder and chairman of Prince Holding Group, with wire fraud and money laundering, describing the organization as a “criminal empire built on forced labor and deception.”

Authorities said the operation was a type of scam known as “pig butchering,” in which fraudsters gradually gain a victim’s trust before convincing them to invest in fake projects.

This marks the largest Bitcoin confiscation in the Justice Department’s history, though it remains unclear how many coins the US government currently holds.

While the department has previously sold portions of seized coins on public markets, an executive order signed by President Trump earlier this year directs that such holdings be redirected to a government-managed “strategic Bitcoin reserve.”

Oil prices steadied on Thursday with a slight upward bias, as traders focused on the possibility that India could halt imports of Russian oil — a move that could boost demand for supplies from other sources.

Brent crude futures rose by 54 cents, or 0.87%, to 62.45 dollars a barrel as of 11:35 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained 56 cents, or 0.96%, to 58.83 dollars a barrel.

The rise followed a period of stabilization after prices touched their lowest levels since early May in the previous session, amid renewed US–China trade tensions.

US President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi had pledged that his country would stop buying oil from Russia, which is India’s largest supplier and accounts for about one-third of its crude imports.

Three sources familiar with the matter told Reuters that some Indian refineries have begun preparing to gradually reduce their imports of Russian oil.

“This is a positive step for crude prices, as it removes one of the biggest buyers of Russian oil from the market,” said Tony Sycamore, analyst at IG.

However, India stated on Thursday that its main priority remains ensuring price stability and securing supply, without referring to Trump’s comments.

Russia, meanwhile, affirmed its confidence in maintaining its energy partnership with India.

Ukrainian Strikes Hit Russian Supplies

These developments come as Russian petroleum product supplies are being disrupted by repeated Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries.

Russia’s energy minister said refineries would postpone scheduled maintenance to pump additional volumes into the market.

Ukraine targeted the Saratov refinery on Wednesday night, while Rosneft halted production at one of the four processing units at the Ufaneftekhim refinery following another strike.

“Reduced availability of Russian crude and petroleum products will provide strong price support,” said Tamas Varga, analyst at PVM. “The year’s low of 58.40 dollars per barrel for Brent in April will be difficult to break.”

Diplomatic Moves and New Sanctions

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Wednesday that he had informed Japanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato that the Trump administration expects Japan to halt imports of Russian energy, although Japan is not among the major importers of Russian crude.

In a separate development, the British government announced new sanctions directly targeting Russian energy giants Rosneft and Lukoil — two of the world’s largest oil companies.

The sanctions also covered four oil ports, China’s Shandong Yulong Petrochemical refinery, and 44 oil tankers belonging to the “grey fleet” that transports Russian crude, along with Nayara Energy, an India-based refinery owned by Russia.