Predictive market data indicates a 67% probability that the price of Bitcoin will drop below $55,000 during 2026, with a 43% probability of it retreating below the $45,000 level. With declining liquidity and the emergence of bearish technical signals, analysts see that the digital currency may head toward a range between $47,000 and $38,000 during the coming months.

The current price of Bitcoin is around $71,200, while estimates indicate that the downward cycle may continue for about six months. The key support levels being monitored by traders include the $47,000 range and then $38,000.

Data from prediction platforms such as Polymarket shows an increase in trader expectations regarding a Bitcoin retreat, as a growing number of them are betting on the price falling to lower levels during 2026. Markets are currently pricing in high probabilities of a decline, including a 67% chance of the price falling below $55,000 and a 43% chance of it falling below $45,000.

At the same time, several factors such as weak liquidity, negative chart patterns, and the historical behavior of market cycles indicate that Bitcoin may not have reached its bottom yet.

Some analysts believe that the probability of a price drop is due to five main factors. The first is the decline in liquidity in the cryptocurrency market, as lower trading volumes lead to weak buying pressure, which increases the chances of a sharp drop in prices. Analyst Jason Pizzino said that liquidity is the lifeblood of markets, and as it dries up, the market becomes more fragile and susceptible to sudden negative movements.

The second factor consists of the repetition of previous bear market patterns. Bitcoin seems to be following a pattern seen in previous downward cycles such as 2014, 2018, and 2022, where short rallies often create a temporary wave of optimism before the market resumes a strong decline. Pizzino explained that this pattern has repeated in almost every bear market, expecting it to repeat once again.

The third factor relates to technical signals, as indicators such as the Stochastic RSI show bearish signals indicating that Bitcoin may be entering the final stage of its decline. Historically, when this signal appears, it is followed by a decrease ranging between 30% and 40% before the market finds its bottom, which could place the potential bottom between $48,000 and $53,000 in mid-2026.

The fourth factor is linked to the long-term technical structure, as Fibonacci channel analysis indicates that the currency may witness a deeper correction. In previous cycles, similar patterns led to declines reaching 70%, making the $47,000 level an initial technical target, with the possibility of the decline extending to $38,000 in the worst-case scenario.

The fifth factor consists of what some traders describe as the "second deception" pattern or the bull trap, where short-term rallies may mislead traders before a larger retreat occurs. Trader Linton Worm said that the downward trend will remain dominant unless the price can exceed the $76,000 level with strong trading volumes.

Looking ahead, analysts propose two potential scenarios. The most likely scenario consists of the price failing to break the range of $74,000 to $76,000, which may push it to retreat toward $50,000 and then $47,000, with the possibility of the decline extending to $38,000. The alternative scenario requires a strong breakout of the $76,000 level supported by significant momentum, which could invalidate the bearish expectations and restore the upward trend.

Oil prices are heading to record their largest weekly loss since last June, despite the slight gains achieved on Friday, amid renewed concerns regarding supplies from Saudi Arabia and oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. 

Brent crude futures rose 56 cents, or 0.58%, to reach $96.48 per barrel by 09:20 GMT. 

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures also rose 65 cents, or 0.66%, to $98.52 per barrel. 

However, both contracts have lost about 11% to 12% this week after Iran and the United States agreed on Tuesday to a two-week truce mediated by Pakistan. 

But fighting continued regardless, and oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz remained severely restricted, which kept futures prices near the $100 per barrel level and pushed prices in the physical market to record levels. 

Shipping traffic through the strait remains less than 10% of its normal levels, after Tehran imposed its control by warning ships against leaving its territorial waters. 

Ole Hansen, an analyst at Saxo Bank, said that the strait is still practically under severe restrictions, and that the operation of the global oil system is far from normal, noting that futures markets are pricing in a partial return to normalcy, while the physical market reflects a sharp shortage in supplies. 

An official in Tehran told Reuters on April 7 that Iran is seeking to impose fees on ships for crossing the strait as part of a peace agreement, a proposal that was met with rejection from Western leaders and from the United Nations shipping agency. 

This vital maritime corridor for oil and gas flows has effectively been closed due to the conflict that began on February 28 when the United States and Israel launched airstrikes on Iran. 

Prices rose on Friday after the official Saudi Press Agency reported that attacks on Saudi energy facilities reduced the Kingdom's production capacity by about 600,000 barrels per day, and also reduced flows of the East-West pipeline by about 700,000 barrels per day. 

According to investment bank JPMorgan, about 50 infrastructure assets in the Gulf have been damaged as a result of drone and missile strikes during the nearly six weeks since the start of the conflict, leading to the halt of about 2.4 million barrels per day of refining capacity. 

Prices declined slightly on Friday after Lebanon announced its intention to participate in a meeting with representatives from the United States and Israel in Washington next week to discuss a ceasefire declaration in the parallel war that Israel is waging against Iran's Hezbollah allies inside the country.

The dollar declined on Friday and is heading to record its largest weekly drop since January, as investors sell safe-haven assets amid optimism that oil shipments may resume if the truce in the Gulf holds. 

The dollar had risen strongly in March as one of the most prominent safe havens, after the American and Israeli war on Iran led to a jump in oil prices and a decline in stocks and gold, while concerns regarding inflation put pressure on bonds. 

But since the agreement on a fragile truce on Tuesday, investors have begun to abandon those positions. 

The euro rose by 1.6% this week to reach $1.1712, while the British pound climbed by 1.9% since Monday to reach $1.344. 

The risk-sensitive currencies of Australia and New Zealand are also heading toward weekly gains of approximately 3% against the dollar, with the Australian dollar trading at slightly over 70 cents. 

Movements in the Asian and European sessions were limited on Friday. U.S. inflation data is scheduled for release later today, but the market trend may depend more heavily on the results of peace talks scheduled for the weekend between the United States and Iran in Islamabad. 

Jason Wong, senior strategist at BNZ Bank in Wellington, said: "Investors were buying the U.S. dollar when the war was in its most tense stages, and now they are selling it as the probability of a worst-case scenario recedes." 

He added that removing that extreme risk thanks to the truce is important from a sentiment perspective, even if the truce itself appears unstable, noting that the mood in the markets could change quickly if the peace talks anticipated over the weekend do not achieve progress. 

Fragile truce 

Wong said that if the talks yield positive results, it will be negative for the dollar, but if the results of the talks are poor by Monday and ship movements remain limited, conditions could flip quickly. 

In the Strait of Hormuz, there were no significant signs of improvement in the situation. During the first 24 hours of the truce, only one petroleum product tanker and five bulk carriers crossed the corridor, which used to receive about 140 ships per day before the war. 

As for the Japanese yen, which has been under pressure for years due to low interest rates in Japan and its sensitivity to high oil prices, it rose slightly from its lowest levels against the dollar, but it did not achieve significant gains, and it was also sold against other currencies, indicating continued weak demand for it. 

The yen fell to 159.19 against the dollar on Friday, while the U.S. dollar index declined by 0.1%, making it down by about 1.4% since the beginning of the week. 

As for the Chinese yuan, which has not seen a major decline since the outbreak of the war with Iran on February 28, it is heading to record its largest weekly gains in 15 months and is trading at its strongest levels since 2023. 

Data released on Friday showed that factory-gate prices in China rose for the first time in three years, in a sign that real inflation may begin to appear after a long period of facing deflation. 

Lynn Song, an economist at ING Bank, said: "The Chinese yuan was one of the surprise winners in the Iran war, even though China is the largest oil importer in the world." 

She added that some market participants have begun re-evaluating the "China risk premium" in light of increasing uncertainty elsewhere in the world, which has made China appear more stable in the eyes of investors.

Gold prices fell in European trading on Friday for the first time in the last four days, pulling away from three-week highs due to correction and profit-taking operations, in addition to pressure from the recovery of the American currency's levels against a basket of global currencies. 

Despite this decline, the precious metal "gold" remains on its way toward achieving its second consecutive weekly gain, following the agreement between the United States and Iran on a two-week ceasefire, which includes opening the Strait of Hormuz to global navigation. 

Price overview 

- Gold prices today: Gold metal prices decreased by 0.75% to ($4,730.41), from the opening level of trading at ($4,766.73), and recorded a high of ($4,780.41). 

- Upon the settlement of prices on Thursday, gold prices achieved an increase of 1.0%, in the third consecutive daily gain, and recorded in the previous day a three-week high at $4,857.56 per ounce, supported by the fall of the U.S. dollar after the announcement of the two-week truce between the United States and Iran. 

US dollar 

The dollar index rose on Friday by about 0.2%, on track to achieve the first gain during the last five sessions, as part of recovery operations from a four-week low, reflecting the rebound in the levels of the American currency against a basket of major and minor currencies. 

Apart from buying operations from low levels, the U.S. dollar levels are rising ahead of the start of peace talks between officials in the United States and Iran in the Pakistani capital, Islamabad. 

Weekly trading 

Over the course of this week's trading, which officially ends at the settlement of prices today, gold prices are up so far by about 1.5%, on the verge of achieving a second consecutive weekly gain. 

Iranian war truce 

- The United States and Iran agree on a two-week ceasefire and plan to open the Strait of Hormuz to global navigation. 

- U.S. President "Donald Trump" agreed to suspend attacks and aerial bombardment against Iran for 14 days, following intensive Pakistani and Qatari mediation. 

- Iran announced its agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz to international navigation "fully and safely," with technical coordination with the Iranian armed forces to secure the passage of ships. 

- Direct negotiations between Washington and Tehran are scheduled to begin later today in the city of "Islamabad" in Pakistan, in order to reach a final agreement that ensures the total cessation of military operations and the opening of the Strait of Hormuz. 

Global oil prices 

Global oil prices declined over the course of this week by an average of 12%, on track to incur the largest weekly loss since June 2025, as fears of supply disruptions from the Middle East subsided after the opening of the Strait of Hormuz to giant oil tankers. 

US interest rates 

- According to the "FedWatch" tool of the "CME" group: Pricing of the probabilities of keeping U.S. interest rates unchanged at the next April meeting is currently stable at 98%, and pricing of the probabilities of raising interest rates by about 25 basis points is stable at 2%. 

- After the war stopped, traders began to price in probabilities for an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve this year. 

- In order to re-price those probabilities, investors await later today the release of key inflation data in the United States for March. 

Expectations about gold performance 

Bob Haberkorn, senior market strategist at RJO Futures, said: The weakness of the dollar helped gold regain its health, but caution prevails in the market as participants try to interpret the implications of the ceasefire. 

Haberkorn added: The news related to the ceasefire was very positive for gold, but prices retreated from their recent highs as signs of collapse appeared. 

SPDR fund 

Gold holdings at the SPDR Gold Trust, the largest gold-backed global index fund, decreased on Thursday by about 0.57 metric tons, in the second consecutive daily decrease, bringing the total down to 1,052.42 metric tons, which is considered the lowest level in about a week.