Ethereum fell on Thursday as risk appetite weakened despite the release of strong US economic data.

Final data showed that US GDP grew by 3.8% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2025, compared with a 0.6% contraction in the first quarter.

Labor Department figures released Thursday revealed that initial US jobless claims declined by 14,000 to 218,000 in the week ending September 20, the lowest level since mid-July, while expectations had been for a rise to 233,000.

Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid said that last week’s 25-basis-point rate cut was necessary to ensure the labor market remains in good shape, despite persistent inflationary risks.

Ethereum

By 21:29 GMT, Ethereum was down 6.1% at $3,907.7 on CoinMarketCap.

TotalEnergies’ Venus project in Namibia’s Orange Basin is the kind of discovery that makes oil executives’ eyes light up and governments dream of huge returns. It was announced in February 2022 and was quickly recognized as one of the largest discoveries on the continent in decades, estimated to contain about 1.5 billion barrels of light crude (45° API) in addition to 4.8 trillion cubic feet of natural gas.

Expectations are immense: production is estimated to peak at 150,000 barrels per day, with the field potentially producing for 30 to 40 years. The ownership structure reflects a mix of global capital and local participation: TotalEnergies (45.25%), QatarEnergy (35.25%), Namibia’s national oil company Namcor (10%), and the UK’s Impact Oil & Gas (9.5%). For Namibia, which has never produced oil on a large scale, Venus represents a major turning point that could raise the country’s GDP by as much as 20% by 2030.

But the promises of Venus are inseparable from its challenges. The field lies in very deep waters (3,000 meters below the surface and 300 kilometers offshore), making it one of the most technically demanding offshore projects in the world. Added to this is the complexity of the associated gas, which has become the center of a dispute delaying negotiations: Namibia wants to bring the gas onshore to boost domestic power generation, while TotalEnergies prefers reinjecting it into the reservoir to maintain pressure, given the low rock permeability. For the government, the issue goes beyond energy to securing long-term revenues and building a foundation for domestic electricity generation, while the company sees this as adding costs and risks to a project on the edge of commercial viability.

TotalEnergies has already adjusted its production plan to reflect Namibia’s reality. After initially proposing a more ambitious strategy with a production capacity of 200,000 barrels per day, the figure was reduced to 150,000. This adjustment appears linked to the company’s broader strategy of focusing on value rather than volume, by maintaining a stable production plateau for seven to eight years instead of pursuing rapid early gains. It also reflects awareness of the strategic context: after Shell’s withdrawal, TotalEnergies has become almost the only major player in Namibia, and any future infrastructure (a potential LNG plant, pipelines, or other facilities) will largely fall on its shoulders. Extending production life therefore ensures returns over a longer period to cover these costly investments.

This tension defines the negotiations now underway. President Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah has placed the matter under her direct supervision and created a presidential oil unit to follow the talks. The concern is clear: Namibia does not want to repeat Guyana’s experience, where the government in a 1999 agreement with ExxonMobil accepted a royalty rate of just 2%, a deal now seen as a negative model for emerging oil producers. For this reason Namibia is entering negotiations with TotalEnergies from a tougher position. TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanné has stressed that reaching the goal of first production in 2029 requires a final investment decision before the end of this year, a timeline that already looks difficult to achieve given ongoing disagreements.

The project’s economic viability is also a point of dispute. TotalEnergies has cited a breakeven price of $20 per barrel, which seems more like a negotiating position than a realistic assessment, since most similar deepwater projects cost around $35 per barrel. For example, ExxonMobil’s projects in Guyana (at 1,700 meters depth) and Petrobras’ pre-salt fields in Brazil (2,000 meters) demonstrate this. Venus, at over 3,000 meters deep with a total geological depth of 6,300 meters, along with a high gas-to-oil ratio, faces greater difficulties. The lack of precise data on the reservoir’s gas content makes it hard to design reinjection and processing plans, adding to cost uncertainty. Analysts warn that if gas is more abundant than expected, reinjection could significantly reduce returns.

Shell’s recent experience offers a clear warning. In early 2025, the company wrote off $400 million on its PEL 39 license off Namibia’s coast and abandoned the Jonker, Graff, and Enigma wells after concluding poor reservoir quality and high gas content made them commercially unviable. This exit shows that not all discoveries in the Orange Basin can be developed, and that Venus, despite its vast promise, is not immune to these geological and economic constraints.

Nevertheless, Namibia is seeking to position itself as a new energy hub. Alongside oil, the government is advancing a $10 billion green hydrogen project with German investors, scheduled to start production in 2027–2028. This parallel push into non-fossil energy shows a diversification strategy, with Venus as the cornerstone but not the only pillar.

For TotalEnergies, Venus reflects both the scale of its African bets and their risks. The continent now accounts for half of its operating production and the largest share of its exploration budget. Growth targets are concentrated on LNG and offshore oil in Namibia, Angola, and Gabon. But the Namibian project embodies the challenges of frontier exploration. The company’s 2025 withdrawal from South Africa, after giving up its offshore license off Cape Town due to political and environmental challenges, highlights the fragility of the operating environment in the region.

A geopolitical factor adds another dimension: China has already established itself as the largest foreign investor in uranium mining in Namibia and is active in renewables and infrastructure. The African Energy Chamber has opened an office in Shanghai to facilitate Chinese participation in energy projects, indicating a strategic continental shift. For TotalEnergies, any delay or dispute with governments could allow competitors to strengthen their presence, potentially weakening the French company’s long-term position.

Thus, the Venus project stands between being an extraordinary opportunity and a deep test. On paper, it could generate major growth in TotalEnergies’ cash flows by 2030 and reshape Namibia’s economic trajectory. But in reality, enormous technical challenges, the need for financial terms balancing investor returns with state ambitions, and a volatile geopolitical backdrop must all be addressed. If issues over gas, revenues, and infrastructure are resolved soon, Venus could become one of this decade’s landmark oil projects. If not, it may turn into another example of how massive frontier energy opportunities can be halted under the weight of costs, politics, and competition.

US stock indexes fell on Thursday as pressure persisted on the technology sector, particularly artificial intelligence stocks.

Economic data released today showed that US GDP grew at an annualized rate of 3.8% in the final reading for the second quarter of 2025, compared with a 0.6% contraction in the first quarter of this year.

Labor Department data on Thursday also revealed that initial jobless claims declined by 14,000 to 218,000 in the week ending September 20, the lowest level since mid-July, while expectations had been for an increase to 233,000.

Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid said last week’s 25-basis-point rate cut was necessary to ensure the labor market remains in good shape, despite lingering inflation risks.

In trading, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.1% (21 points) to 46,100 by 15:59 GMT. The broader S&P 500 dropped 0.4% (25 points) to 6,612, while the Nasdaq Composite lost 0.4% (98 points) to 22,399.

Copper prices declined on Thursday as the US dollar strengthened against most major currencies and investors assessed China’s regulatory moves targeting the country’s copper smelting industry.

A state-run Chinese media outlet reported Thursday that China, the world’s largest copper smelter, is exploring ways to tighten oversight on capacity expansion, as record-low treatment charges have eroded company profits.

Chen Xuexun, vice president of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, said during a Wednesday meeting that low treatment and refining charges (TC/RCs) represent the “most prominent” challenge facing the sector.

He added that fees paid by miners to smelters have been hurt by what is known in China as “involution-style competition” — an intense rivalry so destructive it undermines the industry itself. This follows massive smelting capacity expansions that have outpaced mined copper supply, constraining concentrate availability.

Chen stated: “Involution-style competition has harmed both industry and national interests, so copper companies must firmly oppose it. The association has proposed specific measures to strictly control capacity expansions.”

In early July, Chinese policymakers pledged to tackle “disorderly price competition,” raising hopes of supply-side reforms in industries plagued by overcapacity. That announcement pushed up prices of commodities such as lithium and coal at the time.

However, copper prices barely moved in July, even as output fell 2.5% from a record high in June.

Treatment charges have since plunged to record lows, with some Chinese smelters agreeing to process copper for Chile’s Antofagasta at zero fees under a long-term contract. Spot TC/RCs have remained in negative territory since last December.

Risks facing Chinese smelters — also the world’s largest copper consumers — have grown after Freeport-McMoRan cut its copper production outlook in Indonesia, a move analysts said contributed to higher global copper prices.

Three-month benchmark copper on the London Metal Exchange rose 1.02% to $10,442 per metric ton by 10:09 GMT on Thursday, after hitting its highest level in 15 months earlier in the session.

Attendees at Wednesday’s industry meeting included major Chinese smelters such as Jinchuan Group, Jiangxi Copper, Tongling Nonferrous, China Copper, Daye Nonferrous, China Minmetals, and Zijin Mining, according to the state-backed China Nonferrous Metals News.

Meanwhile, the dollar index rose 0.5% to 98.3 by 15:43 GMT, touching a high of 98.3 and a low of 97.7.

In trading, December copper futures fell 1.1% to $4.76 per pound as of 15:37 GMT.