Cryptocurrencies declined on Tuesday as risk appetite weakened amid rising bets on a Federal Reserve rate cut, alongside higher yields on U.S. Treasuries as well as European and U.K. government bonds.

The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury rose by 5.5 basis points to 4.281%, while the 30-year yield climbed 4.6 basis points to 4.964%.

This came after a U.S. federal appeals court ruled on Friday that most tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump were unlawful, adding further uncertainty to U.S. policy decisions.

On the data front, the U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI rose to 48.7 in August from 48.0 in July, though it remained below the 50 threshold separating expansion from contraction.

Investor focus now shifts to Friday’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls report for fresh signals on the labor market.

According to CME FedWatch, markets are pricing a 92% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Federal Reserve this month.

Ethereum

As of 20:54 GMT, Ethereum fell 2.1% on CoinMarketCap to $4,272.2.

Despite some fluctuations and recurring concerns about oversupply, the global bauxite market continues to grow steadily. Much of this expansion is driven by rising demand in the aluminum sector, particularly from the automotive, aviation, and renewable energy industries.

Around 60% of electric vehicle manufacturers and 70% of aerospace materials companies use aluminum in various forms. Moreover, about 85% of bauxite is consumed in alumina production. Given these dynamics, the global alumina and bauxite market is projected to grow from $84.51 billion in 2025 to $125.91 billion by 2033, representing a compound annual growth rate of 5.11%. This signals major investment opportunities but also the potential for volatility, according to MetalMiner’s weekly report on supply chain disruptions.

United States and China in a Race for Supplies

Industry analysts highlight a structural shift in the bauxite and aluminum market. While the United States is expanding its domestic mining capacity, China is tightening its grip on global bauxite resources.

China is the world’s largest aluminum producer, consuming more than 60% of globally traded bauxite, primarily sourced from Guinea and Australia. By contrast, the United States relies heavily on imports, with about 75% of its bauxite supply coming from overseas. With global demand for aluminum continuing to rise, Washington is now seeking to reduce its dependence on foreign supplies.

Historically, the United States and North America have relied on the Asia-Pacific region, which dominates the global market with 45% of reserves. However, Africa and the Middle East are also key players, with Guinea alone accounting for 24% of global reserves. While Australia leads in exports, China dominates refining, followed by Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

Guinea’s Recent Moves

In a decisive step to tighten control over its mineral resources, Guinea recently revoked a major concession from Guinea Alumina Corporation (GAC), a subsidiary of Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA), citing the company’s failure to build a promised alumina refinery. Under a presidential decree, exploitation rights at the Boké concession were transferred to a newly established state-owned entity, Nimba Mining Company, for 25 years.

GAC, which exported 18 million tons in 2024, plans to challenge the decision through international arbitration, calling the termination “unlawful.” Analysts warn this development could shift market dynamics, particularly for the United States, which partly depends on Guinean bauxite for its supply chain.

Fresh Investments

While the U.S. works to expand its domestic mining footprint, major players in the aluminum industry continue to invest in new capacity. Rio Tinto has committed $180 million to boost bauxite output at its Amrun mine in Queensland, Australia, with initial production expected in 2027 and full ramp-up by 2028.

Price Outlook

The relative stability in the bauxite and aluminum markets was reflected in steady global bauxite prices during Q2 2025, shaped by a mix of supply chain disruptions, environmental regulations, and strong demand from the aluminum sector.

In the U.S., prices held at around $82 per ton, supported by steady demand from smelters and refractory industries. However, reliance on imports and shipping delays have raised costs, while environmental regulations and labor shortages continue to weigh on mining operations. In China, prices climbed to $99 per ton on the back of robust industrial demand and domestic supply disruptions. At the same time, limited imports and delayed shipments from Southeast Asia and West Africa tightened supply.

With aluminum demand accelerating and countries such as the U.S. and Australia investing in strategic supply chains, the bauxite market appears set for long-term growth. Still, challenges remain, including environmental hurdles such as the costly disposal of “red mud,” which can raise operational expenses by up to 50%, alongside geopolitical risks that could trigger fresh price volatility.

U.S. stock indexes declined at the start of trading on Tuesday – the first session of September – in conjunction with the rise in Treasury yields and concerns over tariffs.

The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury notes rose by 5.5 basis points to 4.281%, while the yield on 30-year bonds increased by 4.6 basis points to 4.964%.

This comes after a federal appeals court ruled on Friday that most of the tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump were illegal, which caused further uncertainty regarding U.S. policy decisions.

By 16:14 GMT, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 1% (equivalent to 431 points) to 45,113 points, the S&P 500 Index dropped by 1.2% (equivalent to 79 points) to 6,380 points, while the Nasdaq Composite Index declined by 1.5% (equivalent to 320 points) to 21,135 points.

Palladium prices rose during Tuesday’s trading despite a stronger U.S. dollar against most major currencies, supported by expectations of a global supply shortage.

Sibanye-Stillwater, based in Johannesburg with operations in the U.S. and South Africa, has petitioned to impose tariffs on Russian palladium imports — a move that could further heighten price volatility. The company noted that Russian palladium is being sold below market value, particularly since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. CEO Neal Froneman said tariffs would ensure a fairer competitive environment for the U.S. PGMs industry. A ruling on the petition is expected within 13 months.

Russia’s Norilsk Nickel (Nornickel), which controls 40% of global mined palladium, declined to comment. Sibanye-Stillwater itself booked a second consecutive annual loss last year, including a $500 million writedown on its U.S. palladium assets amid weak prices.

Spot palladium has risen 31% year-to-date, with analysts surveyed by Reuters expecting 2025 to mark the first annual gain in four years, driven by support from platinum. Still, Heraeus analysts warned that tariffs on Russian metal might not alter the supply-demand balance, but could redirect global trade flows and increase volatility.

According to Trade Data Monitor, Russia and South Africa remain the primary suppliers of palladium to the U.S., with China ranking second to the U.S. as a key buyer of Russian metal. U.S. imports of Russian palladium rose 42% year-on-year to exceed 500,000 troy ounces between January and May.

Palladium and PGMs are widely used in catalytic converters for gasoline vehicles. So far, Russian palladium has avoided U.S. sanctions tied to the Ukraine war, as well as import tariffs announced by President Donald Trump.

In a separate development, CME FedWatch data shows markets are pricing in an 86% probability that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its September meeting.

Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar index rose 0.4% to 98.1 by 15:45 GMT, touching a high of 98.6 and a low of 97.6. Futures for December palladium gained 2.5% to $1,152.5 per ounce at the same time.