Bitcoin rose again above the $68,000 level, posting gains of 1.8% today. On the surface, this appears to be another gradual move within a broader consolidation range. However, beneath the price action, the structural landscape is quietly changing. After months of measured distribution near previous highs, large holders are rebuilding their positions. On-chain balance data shows that the entire decline in whale reserves following the October peak has now been fully reversed. This is not random accumulation, but coordinated absorption during corrective weakness.

The key question is no longer whether Bitcoin can hold above $68,000, but whether this phase of reaccumulation represents the early foundation for a broader structural breakout.

Whale accumulation returns — strategically

Wallets holding between 1,000 and 10,000 Bitcoin — typically classified as institutional-level participants or entities with deep liquidity — added around 200,000 Bitcoin during the past month alone. On-chain data shows a sharp V-shaped recovery in reserves. The previous decline in large-holder balances began shortly after the local peak in October, coinciding with a period of market exhaustion. That distribution phase now appears to have been fully reversed.

This shift is important for two main reasons.

First, historical patterns show that whale distribution often aligns closely with local market tops. Their current behavior — accumulating during consolidation phases — suggests a move from defensive positioning toward strategic rebuilding of exposure.

Second, the flow appears to be driven by spot buying rather than leverage. Large transaction volumes dominate recent order flow data, while retail participation remains relatively limited. Markets driven by spot absorption tend to stabilize before expanding; they build price bases before making headlines. In practical terms, liquid supply is being quietly reduced. When 200,000 Bitcoin moves into strong hands within a 30-day window, market sensitivity to additional demand increases significantly.

Price channel breakout signals a momentum shift

On the hourly chart, BTCUSD recently broke above a clearly defined descending channel that had capped price action after rejection near the $69,800 level. That channel produced a sequence of lower highs, pushing price toward the support zone between $66,800 and $67,000. The breakout above the upper boundary suggests that short-term bearish momentum has been neutralized.

Technically, this carries importance because descending channels often represent corrective phases within broader uptrends. Breaking out of such patterns typically signals the start of a new impulse wave, provided higher-timeframe resistance levels are cleared.

The $69,500–70,000 zone remains the first major supply area following the recent rejection, while $71,200 represents the key structural and psychological resistance level on both the hourly and daily charts. The $67,000 level now acts as short-term support, aligning with the previous channel base, while the broader weekly higher-low zone remains between $65,000 and $66,000. Holding above $67,000 keeps the short-term bullish structure intact.

A confirmed weekly close above $70,000 would open the path toward the next major supply pocket between $74,000 and $76,000, where historical trading activity suggests concentrated liquidity. Failure to reclaim $70,000 would likely extend the consolidation phase, though with an increasingly stronger structural base forming underneath price.

Bitcoin’s Sharpe ratio improves as whale accumulation continues

Bitcoin’s Sharpe ratio has recovered from recent lows, suggesting that the latest correction was a volatility reset rather than a structural breakdown.

Similar bottoms in the past have tended to coincide with accumulation phases rather than cyclical tops. The current improvement in risk-adjusted returns comes alongside disciplined funding rates and continued whale accumulation, reflecting normalization rather than speculative excess. In other words, the market appears to be rebuilding risk balance beneath resistance zones — a healthier context compared with previous impulsive rallies.

Bitcoin’s next move depends on this level

Bitcoin trading above $68,000 is not merely a technical event. It coincides with the addition of roughly 200,000 Bitcoin to whale wallets over the past month, fully reversing the post-October distribution phase.

As long as price remains supported above the $66,000–67,000 region, this accumulation continues to underpin the structural outlook. The critical pivot remains $70,000. A confirmed weekly reclaim of that level would align tightening supply conditions with technical breakout criteria, potentially opening the path toward $74,000–76,000. If resistance holds, consolidation may continue, but with major holders returning, downside pressure appears increasingly absorbed rather than accelerating.

Oil prices traded near six-month highs on Friday, heading for their first weekly gain in three weeks, amid growing concerns over the potential for conflict after Washington said Tehran would face consequences if it failed to agree to a nuclear deal within days.

Brent crude futures fell by 25 cents, or 0.35%, to $71.41 per barrel by 11:30 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate crude declined by 30 cents, or 0.45%, to $66.13 per barrel.

For the week, Brent was up 5.3%, while West Texas Intermediate gained 5.2%.

Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank, said: “We are waiting for a potentially decisive outcome, if we take Trump’s statements seriously.” He added: “The market is nervous, and today will be a day of waiting and watching.”

US President Donald Trump said on Thursday that “very bad things” would happen if Iran did not agree to scale back its nuclear program, setting a deadline of between 10 and 15 days.

In response, Iran plans to conduct joint naval exercises with Russia, according to local media, just days after temporarily closing the Strait of Hormuz as part of military drills.

Iran, one of the world’s major oil producers, sits across the oil-rich Arabian Peninsula along the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of global oil supply passes. Any conflict in the region could restrict oil flows to global markets and push prices higher.

Priyanka Sachdeva, Senior Market Analyst at Phillip Nova, said: “Market focus has clearly shifted toward escalating tensions in the Middle East after several rounds of US-Iran nuclear talks failed, even as investors continue debating whether any actual disruption will occur.”

Analysis from Saxo Bank showed that traders and investors increased purchases of Brent call options in recent days, betting on higher prices.

Oil prices also found support from reports of falling crude inventories and export constraints among major oil-producing and exporting countries.

A report from the US Energy Information Administration on Thursday showed that US crude inventories fell by 9 million barrels, alongside higher refinery utilization rates and increased exports.

However, concerns about the outlook for US interest rates — in the world’s largest oil-consuming country — limited further price gains.

Sachdeva said: “Recent Federal Reserve minutes suggesting rates could stay unchanged or even rise further if inflation remains elevated could weigh on demand.”

Lower interest rates typically support crude prices.

Markets were also assessing the impact of abundant supply, amid discussion that the OPEC+ alliance may resume oil production increases starting in April.

JPMorgan analysts Natasha Kaneva and Lyuba Savinova said in a note that the oil surplus evident in the second half of 2025 persisted into January and is likely to continue.

They added: “Our balance forecasts still point to large surpluses later this year,” noting that production cuts of around 2 million barrels per day would be required to prevent excessive inventory buildup in 2027.

The dollar was on track on Friday to post its biggest weekly gain since October, supported by a series of better-than-expected economic data and a more hawkish tone from the Federal Reserve, as tensions between the United States and Iran continued to rise.

The dollar index, which measures the US currency against a basket of major currencies, edged higher on Friday and was heading for a weekly gain of around 1.1%.

Labor market data supported the dollar in the previous session, as the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell by more than expected last week, confirming continued stability in the labor market.

Earlier in the week, minutes from the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting showed that policymakers remain divided on the path of interest rates amid persistent inflationary pressures.

Dominic Bunning, Head of G10 FX Strategy at Nomura, said: “Between relatively strong data and a less dovish tone from the Fed in the minutes, along with some tensions in the Middle East and a degree of investor repositioning, it is understandable why the dollar has managed to rebound.”

Investors often turn to the dollar during periods of escalating geopolitical tension.

Markets positioning for risk

US President Donald Trump warned Iran on Thursday that it must reach an agreement on its nuclear program or face “very bad things,” giving Tehran a deadline of 10 to 15 days to cooperate. Iran said it would respond against US bases in the region if attacked.

Derek Halpenny, Head of Research for Global Markets EMEA at MUFG, said: “With the military buildup in the Middle East and Trump’s comments, I think markets will definitely position for the possibility that something could happen over the weekend.”

He added that any jump in crude oil prices could leave several currencies exposed to pressure, including the euro, Japanese yen, and British pound.

“These are the currencies that could see larger moves,” he said.

Sterling stabilized near a one-month low at $1.3455 and was on track for a weekly loss of 1.4%, its largest since January 2025.

The euro fell by 0.1% to $1.1760 and was heading for a weekly decline of nearly 0.9%, also weighed by uncertainty surrounding European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde’s term.

Interest rates

Markets are awaiting the release later on Friday of the US core personal consumption expenditures price index and preliminary fourth-quarter gross domestic product data, which could determine the next direction for currencies.

Investors are still pricing in about two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, although the probability of a June cut has slipped to around 58% from 62% a week earlier, according to the CME Group FedWatch tool.

Chris Zaccarelli, Chief Investment Officer at Northlight Asset Management, said: “The main debate within the Fed is whether rates should be cut preemptively to support the labor market, or kept higher for longer to fight inflation.”

He added that Friday’s personal consumption expenditures report “will add to that debate.”

In Japan, data released on Friday showed that annual core consumer inflation slowed to 2.0% in January, the weakest pace in two years.

Abhijit Surya, Chief Economist for Asia-Pacific at Capital Economics, said: “Today’s data will not create a sense of urgency for the Bank of Japan to resume tightening, especially given the weak recovery in activity during the past quarter.”

The Japanese yen fell more than 0.4% to 155.53 against the dollar.

The currency showed little reaction to a speech by Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi on Friday, in which she stressed her government’s commitment to reviving the economy.

Elsewhere, the New Zealand dollar was on track for a weekly loss of 1.3%, pressured by a more dovish interest rate outlook from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand.

Gold prices rose in European trading on Friday, extending gains for a third consecutive day in a renewed attempt to hold above the $5,000 per ounce level, supported by safe-haven demand amid geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran.

However, gains in the precious metal were limited by the rise of the US dollar in foreign exchange markets, which has been supported by declining expectations for near-term US interest rate cuts. To reassess those expectations, traders are awaiting a series of important US economic data releases later today.

Price Overview

Gold prices today: gold rose by 0.9% to $5,039.76, up from the opening level of $4,996.62, while recording a session low of $4,982.02.

At Thursday’s settlement, gold prices gained 0.4%, marking a second consecutive daily increase, as the metal continued recovering from a two-week low of $4,841.43 per ounce.

Geopolitical tensions

US President Donald Trump issued a strongly worded warning to Iran, giving it roughly 10 to 15 days to reach a “meaningful agreement” regarding its nuclear program and warning of “serious consequences” in the event of failure.

The warning came after the second round of indirect US-Iran talks concluded with cautious optimism, as Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi announced that a “shared understanding on guiding principles” for a potential agreement had been reached.

The political track coincided with the largest US military buildup in the region in two decades, including the approach of the aircraft carrier Gerald Ford, amid reports of plans for “limited” strikes aimed at pressuring Tehran.

US dollar

The dollar index rose by 0.25% on Friday, extending gains for a fifth consecutive session and recording a four-week high at 98.08 points, reflecting continued strength in the US currency against a basket of global currencies.

As is well known, a stronger US dollar makes gold bullion priced in dollars less attractive for buyers holding other currencies.

The rise comes as investors focus on buying the dollar as one of the most attractive opportunities in the foreign exchange market, especially with growing expectations that US interest rates will remain unchanged during the first half of this year.

Federal Reserve minutes

Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting, held on January 27–28 and released on Wednesday, showed a divide among policymakers regarding the appropriate path for US interest rates, noting that the new chair, expected to take office in May, may face challenges in pushing through any rate cuts.

The minutes also indicated that some members expect productivity gains to help ease inflationary pressures, although “most participants” warned that the path toward lower inflation could be slow and uneven. Some even suggested that further rate hikes could be considered if inflation remains above target.

US interest rates

Following the above minutes, and according to the CME Group FedWatch tool, pricing for keeping US interest rates unchanged at the March meeting rose from 90% to 95%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut fell from 10% to 5%.

To reprice these expectations, traders are awaiting a series of key US economic releases throughout the day, including fourth-quarter gross domestic product data, December personal consumption expenditures figures, and data from the main sectors of the US economy.

Gold outlook

Brian Lan, Managing Director at Singapore-based dealer GoldSilver Central, said that precious metals are currently consolidating with a slight downward bias, noting that the rebound in the US dollar from recent lows has put some pressure on precious metal prices.

Goldman Sachs said in a note that under its baseline scenario, central bank gold purchases are expected to accelerate, while retail investor demand is likely to increase only in response to Federal Reserve rate cuts, which could push gold prices to $5,400 per ounce by the end of 2026.

SPDR Gold Trust

Holdings of the SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, rose by 3.14 metric tons on Thursday, bringing total holdings to 1,078.75 metric tons, rebounding from 1,075.61 metric tons, which marked the lowest level since January 15.