Bitcoin is trading at a sensitive technical point after successfully reclaiming the $80,000 zone, but the market has not yet confirmed a clear and sustainable bullish breakout. Despite the improvement in the technical structure being sufficient to keep upside targets in play, risks remain elevated as the price approaches key resistance levels.

The main challenge now lies in Bitcoin’s ability to turn the $80,000 to $82,000 zone from a temporary breakout area into a real support level. If successful, the cryptocurrency could move toward $85,000 and later $90,000. Failure to hold above this region, however, could turn the recent rally into nothing more than a rebound within a broader corrective trend.

A shift in market behavior

Bitcoin’s current performance differs from the failed recovery attempts seen earlier during the recent correction phase. The price has managed to return above an important psychological level at a time when short sellers are facing increasing pressure, while buyers have started defending price pullbacks instead of fleeing the market collectively.

This behavior points to a gradual shift in trading dynamics. In weak markets, any rally is quickly sold, while in markets regaining balance, pullbacks become limited, trading ranges tighten, and resistance levels are repeatedly tested until one side succeeds in establishing a clear direction.

Bitcoin appears to have entered this second phase, where overall market sentiment has improved without yet reaching the stage of a strong momentum-driven breakout.

ETF funds support the bullish trend

Demand coming from spot exchange-traded funds remains the key supporting factor for the market at the moment. These funds provide a real institutional demand channel that absorbs actual supply from the market, unlike speculation based solely on futures contracts and leverage.

Although inflows into these funds do not always lead to immediate price increases, continued buying gradually reduces available supply, especially as long-term Bitcoin holders continue maintaining their positions.

ETF funds have also changed the nature of Bitcoin cycles compared to previous years, making the cryptocurrency more sensitive to macroeconomic factors such as interest rates, liquidity, and risk appetite rather than relying entirely on retail investor speculation.

The macroeconomic environment remains the biggest risk

Despite improving risk appetite in markets, the broader economic environment still represents a challenge for high-risk assets, led by Bitcoin.

If expectations persist that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates elevated for a longer period, this could limit liquidity flows toward non-yielding assets such as gold and Bitcoin.

In this context, the cryptocurrency needs continued ETF inflows or increased demand linked to inflation hedging in order to maintain upward momentum.

The halving effect remains present

The impact of the 2024 halving event continues to work gradually in the background of the market, as the event reduced new Bitcoin supply, enhancing the effect of any increase in institutional demand.

This situation is supported by several factors, most notably:

Lower new Bitcoin supply.

Continued institutional demand through ETF funds.

Long-term investors holding large amounts of the cryptocurrency.

Declining balances available on exchanges compared to previous cycles.

However, risks remain related to miners or highly leveraged investors engaging in profit-taking sales during each rally.

Derivatives indicate the market has not yet reached saturation

The recent rally forced many short sellers to close their positions, helping accelerate the rise above the $80,000 level.

But the most important positive factor is that funding rates in the derivatives market remain moderate, meaning the market has not yet entered an excessive “overbought” phase or a leverage-driven speculative bubble.

This indicates that room remains open for further upside, provided real demand in the spot market continues.

Technical analysis: $85,000 is the decisive test

Bitcoin is currently attempting to confirm a technical breakout from a price base that lasted several weeks, with reclaiming the $80,000 level representing the first positive signal, followed by stability above the $82,000 to $83,000 range.

However, the real test lies in breaking through the $85,000 level, where sellers are expected to become active again.

The current key technical levels are as follows:

$90,000: The next major upside target.

$85,000: The bullish breakout confirmation level.

$82,000 to $83,000: Short-term resistance.

$80,000: The current decision zone.

$76,000 to $78,000: Important psychological support.

$72,000: Major structural support, with a break below it weakening the bullish scenario.

The bullish scenario

The positive scenario is based on continued stability above $80,000, alongside ongoing ETF inflows and leverage remaining under control.

In this case, Bitcoin could move first toward $85,000, then later toward $90,000. A break above $90,000 could also completely shift market psychology and push more institutional capital into the market.

The bearish scenario

The negative scenario begins if Bitcoin fails to break above the $85,000 level, which could prompt traders to take profits and push the price back toward $80,000.

A break below $78,000 would increase the likelihood that the recent rally turns into a false breakout, while a drop below $72,000 would represent a clear signal of weakness in the current bullish structure.

Fundamental outlook

The current outlook remains cautiously positive, as Bitcoin’s technical and fundamental situation has improved thanks to the return of institutional demand and easing selling pressure, but the market still needs decisive confirmation through a break above the $85,000 level.

At the moment, the cryptocurrency appears to be in a recovery phase rather than a confirmed bullish breakout phase.

Oil prices extended their losses on Thursday, declining by about 2% to below the $100 per barrel level, amid renewed hopes for a peace agreement between the United States and Iran that could lead to a gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

Brent crude contracts fell by $1.95, or 1.93%, to $99.32 per barrel by 09:12 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate crude declined by $1.93, or 2.03%, to $93.15 per barrel.

Thursday’s session witnessed sharp volatility, with Brent crude trading ranging between gains of 1% and losses of 3.8% compared to the previous session’s close.

Both benchmark crudes had fallen by more than 7% on Wednesday, recording their lowest levels in two weeks amid optimism over the possibility of ending the war in the Middle East.

The decline continued on Thursday as investors reacted to new headlines pointing to possible progress toward peace talks.

Analysts pointed to a report by Saudi channel Al Arabiya stating that understandings had been reached to ease the US blockade in exchange for a gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, in addition to another report by Israel’s Channel 12 stating that Iran had agreed in principle to transfer its stockpile of 60% enriched uranium to a third country. Reuters could not independently verify these reports.

Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst at Phillip Nova, said: “From a broader perspective, oil markets have remained caught between diplomacy and disruption for more than two months, while investor sentiment has been affected by news headlines almost daily.”

She added: “If a formal agreement is ultimately reached, oil prices could witness a rapid collapse as geopolitical risk premiums disappear from the market. However, any new signs of attacks targeting oil infrastructure or escalation in the Middle East could easily trigger another sharp surge in prices.”

Iran had announced on Wednesday that it is reviewing the US peace proposal, which sources said could formally end the war, but leaves unresolved major US demands including suspending Iran’s nuclear program and reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

Earlier this week, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent called on China to intensify its diplomatic efforts to persuade Iran to reopen the strait to international shipping, adding that US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping would discuss the issue during their meeting next week.

Hiroyuki Kikukawa, chief strategist at Nissan Securities Investment, said: “Peace negotiations are likely to continue at least until the US-China summit next week, but expectations beyond that remain uncertain.”

The US dollar continued its decline on Thursday as hopes grew for de-escalation in the war between Iran and the United States, supporting oil-linked currencies, while Tokyo resumed verbal interventions to support the yen, prompting speculators to act cautiously.

US President Donald Trump had predicted a quick end to the war, while Tehran is reviewing a US peace proposal that Reuters said could formally end the conflict while leaving some key issues unresolved, including Washington’s demand that Iran suspend its nuclear program and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

However, market movements on Thursday were calmer compared to Wednesday’s session, when the latest reports regarding the new proposals emerged.

The euro rose by 0.1% to $1.1763, after gains of 0.47% on Wednesday, while the British pound climbed 0.16% to $1.3615 after rising 0.4% in the previous session.

Nick Rees, head of macro strategy at Monex Europe, said:

“Everyone remains heavily focused on the Middle East and the course of negotiations, but the reality is that we do not know what will happen, and markets reflect that the easiest option right now is to wait and see.”

Oil prices also continued to show signs of possible de-escalation that could allow Gulf exports to resume, with June Brent crude trading at $98.6 per barrel, down from recent highs but still well above levels seen before the outbreak of the war.

The Japanese yen recorded a slight rise to 156.21 per dollar after posting strong gains on Wednesday amid speculation that Japanese authorities had intervened again in markets to support the local currency.

Atsushi Mimura, Japan’s top currency diplomat, said on Thursday that the country is not constrained regarding intervention in the foreign exchange market.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is scheduled to meet Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi next week, while Nikkei reported that the talks will include discussions on curbing speculation against the yen, alongside other issues.

Sources had previously told Reuters that Japanese authorities intervened last Thursday, with money market data indicating that they sold around $35 billion to support the yen. Since then, markets have witnessed three sudden jumps in the Japanese currency through Wednesday’s session.

Despite this, analysts do not expect yen strength to continue for long.

Masahiko Loo, senior fixed income strategist at State Street Investment Management, said:

“Without stronger action from the Bank of Japan through consecutive interest rate hikes to address its lag behind the monetary policy curve, the yen is likely to remain weak in the near term.”

He added that repeated interventions increase the chances of broader policy measures during the period between June and July, in line with the scenario seen in markets at the end of 2024.

Elsewhere, the Norwegian krone rose after Norway’s central bank raised interest rates to 4.25% from 4%, warning that inflation remains too high. The dollar fell 0.6% to 9.249 kroner, while the euro declined 0.4% to 10.878 kroner.

The Australian dollar, which is sensitive to risk sentiment, also rose by 0.3% to $0.7242, remaining near the four-year high recorded on Wednesday.

Meanwhile, the Swedish krona posted slight gains to 10.846 against the euro and 9.21 against the dollar after Sweden’s central bank indicated that inflation risks stemming from the Middle East war have increased somewhat, despite keeping interest rates unchanged at 1.75%, as expected.

Gold prices rose in the European market on Thursday, extending gains for the third consecutive day and recording their highest level in two weeks, amid positive sentiment dominating global markets, continued weakness in the US dollar, and falling oil prices, as the United States and Iran move closer to reaching a peace agreement that would permanently end the war in the Middle East.

With rising expectations of US interest rate cuts in the coming period, investors are awaiting the release on Friday of the US nonfarm payrolls report for April, which the Federal Reserve relies heavily on in determining the course of monetary policy in the country.

Price Overview

Gold prices today: Gold prices rose by 1.35% to $4,753.56, the highest level since April 22, from the opening level of $4,690.88, and recorded a low of $4,685.35.

At settlement on Wednesday, gold prices gained 2.95%, marking the second consecutive daily gain, supported by growing hopes of ending the Iranian war.

The US dollar

The dollar index fell on Thursday by 0.25%, extending losses for the second consecutive session and heading toward touching its lowest level in three months, reflecting the continued decline of the US currency against a basket of major and secondary currencies.

Risk sentiment improved in global markets, and demand for the US dollar as a safe haven declined, amid easing tensions between the United States and Iran in the Strait of Hormuz and growing hopes of a near peace agreement.

Peace talks

Iran announced on Wednesday that it is reviewing a US peace proposal, and sources indicated that it would formally end the war, but would leave major US demands unresolved, namely Iran’s suspension of its nuclear program and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

Some media reports stated that the proposal under discussion includes imposing restrictions on Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for lifting the naval blockade and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, as part of de-escalation efforts between Washington and Tehran.

Iranian authorities are expected to deliver their response today, Thursday, to Pakistani mediators, while US President Donald Trump stated that there had been “very good talks” over the past 24 hours, signaling progress on the diplomatic track.

Global oil prices

Global oil prices fell on Thursday by more than 3.5%, extending losses for the third consecutive day and heading toward recording their lowest levels in several weeks, amid easing fears over disruptions to energy supplies from the Arabian Gulf region and growing chances of reopening the Strait of Hormuz to oil tankers.

There is no doubt that declining global oil prices reduce concerns about accelerating inflation, which supports the direction of some global central banks toward cutting interest rates during the second half of this year.

US interest rates

According to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool: pricing for the probability of keeping US interest rates unchanged at the June meeting is currently stable at 94%, while pricing for the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points stands at 6%.

In order to reprice those probabilities, traders are closely monitoring the release of more very important data on the US labor market.

Later today, weekly jobless claims will be released, while the US nonfarm payrolls report for April will be published tomorrow Friday.

Gold performance outlook

Peter Grant, vice president and senior metals strategist at Zaner Metals, said: Optimism regarding reaching a final agreement between the United States and Iran has led to at least temporary relief in gold prices, especially with declining oil prices, easing inflation concerns, and shifting expectations regarding Federal Reserve actions later this year.

Grant added: I cannot say that we are completely past the crisis. The market will remain affected by news related to the Iranian war and geopolitical developments in the Middle East.

SPDR Fund

Gold holdings at SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, declined on Wednesday by about 0.86 metric tons, marking the second consecutive daily decline, bringing the total down to 1,033.19 metric tons, the lowest level since October 15, 2025.