Bitcoin hovered near the lower boundary of its consolidation range around $67,000 on Monday after failing last week to break through a key resistance zone.

Institutional inflows continue to provide some support for the cryptocurrency, as spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded positive inflows for the second consecutive week. However, analysts warn that caution is warranted, as the ongoing war between the United States and Iran has pushed oil prices to their highest levels since mid-June 2022, raising concerns about renewed inflationary pressures that could negatively affect high-risk assets such as Bitcoin.

Why rising oil prices could hurt risk assets

The war between the United States and Iran entered its tenth day on Monday, a relatively prolonged conflict that has weighed on global investors and weakened risk appetite, limiting Bitcoin’s upside.

Over the weekend, tensions escalated further after the United States and Israel carried out a joint operation targeting several Iranian storage facilities.

Oil prices had already surged after the closure of the Strait of Hormuz last week, which disrupted oil shipping routes and reduced global supplies.

The latest strikes tightened supply conditions even further, pushing West Texas Intermediate crude to $113.28 during Monday’s Asian trading session — a level not seen since mid-June 2022.

At the time of writing, prices were seeing a slight correction following reports that the International Energy Agency is discussing with G7 countries the possibility of a coordinated release of emergency oil reserves to stabilize markets.

Such a move could temporarily increase supply and curb the sharp rise in prices.

In the longer term, however, risks remain. Persistently high oil prices increase global inflationary pressures as higher energy costs feed into transportation and production sectors, raising the prices of goods and services.

This could create a high-inflation environment that forces central banks to tighten monetary policy, which would weigh on high-risk assets like Bitcoin because higher borrowing costs reduce market liquidity and increase demand for safer, fixed-income assets.

Institutional demand for Bitcoin remains strong

Institutional demand for Bitcoin remained solid last week, signaling a degree of investor confidence despite ongoing geopolitical tensions.

According to data from SoSoValue, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded inflows of $568.45 million last week, following $787.31 million in positive inflows the previous week.

If these inflows continue and accelerate, Bitcoin prices could recover in the coming weeks.

Could Bitcoin become “digital gold”?

QCP Capital said in a report on Monday that global equity markets have become more defensive amid rising uncertainty.

The report added that US Treasury bonds and gold also failed to attract their usual safe-haven demand, as both came under pressure due to rising oil prices that sparked inflation concerns and pushed bond yields higher.

Instead, the US dollar has emerged as the preferred defensive asset, supported by rising yields and the fact that the United States is a net energy exporter.

The report noted that although most risk assets have weakened under current market pressures, Bitcoin has shown notable resilience — a pattern not seen in the cryptocurrency market for some time.

It concluded that although Bitcoin has not yet fully achieved the concept of “digital gold,” its practical use as a “digital escape asset” is becoming more relevant, particularly in Gulf countries during periods of currency volatility and political instability.

Bitcoin price outlook

Bitcoin was trading around $67,600 as of Monday, with a slightly bearish bias in the near term, as the price remains below the 50-week exponential moving average near $90,000 and the 100-week EMA near $84,000, while hovering close to the 200-week EMA.

The weekly Relative Strength Index stands at 29 within oversold territory but remains weak, suggesting continued bearish pressure.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator also remains below the signal line and below the zero level, although the shrinking histogram bars indicate weakening downside momentum without a clear bullish reversal yet.

The next key support level lies at $60,000, reinforced by an ascending trendline near $55,500, where buyers are expected to defend the broader bullish cycle structure.

If the $60,000 level breaks decisively, however, the price could move toward deeper corrections, particularly after losing the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the rally between $49,000 and $126,200 near $78,490.

On the upside, the first resistance lies near the 23.6% retracement level around $108,000, followed by a previous trading range near $115,000. The current bearish trend would only fade with a weekly close above this area.

Short-term technical outlook

On the daily chart, Bitcoin is trading within a parallel channel, with resistance near $71,980, keeping a slight bearish bias in place despite the recent rebound toward the middle of the channel.

The price is also trading below the 50-day and 100-day exponential moving averages at $73,263 and $80,648 respectively, signaling a continuation of the broader negative trend.

The daily RSI stands at 46, below the midpoint level of 50, reflecting weak momentum.

The MACD remains above the signal line, but fading momentum from recent peaks suggests a slowdown in bullish pressure.

Immediate resistance appears near the upper boundary of the channel around $71,980, where a price rejection would maintain the short-term downtrend.

However, a daily close above this level could open the way toward the $73,000 region.

On the downside, the first support lies at the channel floor near $65,120, while a break below this level could lead to a test of the key psychological level at $60,000.

As long as Bitcoin remains trading between $65,120 and $71,980, the price will likely continue moving within a downward-sloping corrective channel.

The US dollar jumped on Monday as oil prices surged sharply, pushing investors toward cash amid fears that a prolonged war in the Middle East could severely disrupt energy supplies and damage global economic growth.

The euro and the British pound fell about 0.5% and 0.6% respectively against the dollar. The Australian dollar and even the Swiss franc — traditionally considered a safe-haven currency — also declined by about 0.3% to 0.4%.

Nick Rees, head of macro research at Monex Europe, said the dollar clearly benefits from being relatively less exposed to Middle East risks, in addition to reclaiming its traditional role as a safe-haven asset during periods of geopolitical tension.

Stocks, bonds, and precious metals all declined on Monday as investors turned cautious and avoided risk, worried about the impact of rising oil prices on global inflation and economic growth, prompting them to take profits from some of their most successful trades.

Michael Every, global strategist at Rabobank, said that if the crisis persists for longer it could lead to a cascading chain reaction similar to falling dominoes. He added that if the situation remains unchanged into next week, it could become extremely concerning.

The dollar eased slightly during afternoon trading in Asia after a report by the Financial Times said G7 finance ministers would discuss a coordinated release of oil from emergency reserves in cooperation with the International Energy Agency.

The report pushed oil prices slightly lower after they had earlier surged close to $120 per barrel. Brent crude was last up about 13% at $104.60 per barrel after rising more than 25% earlier in the session.

Traders reassess exposure to energy shock

The euro fell 0.5% to $1.1559 after earlier dropping to a three-and-a-half-month low, while the British pound declined 0.64% to $1.3338.

Against the Swiss franc, the dollar rose 0.39% to 0.7787 francs. The Australian dollar also trimmed earlier losses to trade down about 0.25%.

Analysts said Asia may bear the largest share of the energy shock because of its heavy reliance on oil and gas imports from the Middle East, while Britain and the euro area are also highly exposed to the crisis.

The dollar was trading near 159 yen in Asian markets, rising 0.37% to 158.41 yen.

Debapali Bhargava, head of Asia-Pacific research at ING, said the real question is how high prices will rise and how long they will remain elevated, as that will ultimately determine the scale of the economic impact.

She added that a prolonged conflict, combined with continued currency weakness, could directly increase inflationary pressures across the region.

Iran announced on Monday the appointment of Mojtaba Khamenei as successor to his father Ali Khamenei as supreme leader, signaling the continued dominance of hardliners in Tehran a week after the war with the United States and Israel began.

The conflict has already suspended roughly one-fifth of global oil and natural gas supplies after Tehran targeted vessels in the vital Strait of Hormuz between its coast and Oman, along with attacks on energy infrastructure across the region.

Qatar’s energy minister told the Financial Times on Friday that he expects all Gulf energy producers may be forced to halt exports within weeks, a move that could push oil prices toward $150 per barrel.

Unexpectedly weak US employment data on Friday briefly halted the dollar’s gains and raised expectations for US interest rate cuts, but that effect faded by Monday.

Latest market pricing shows traders expecting about 35 basis points of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve by the end of the year, down from more than 55 basis points priced in at the end of February.

Kyle Rodda, senior financial market analyst at Capital.com, said these developments could ultimately delay any move by the Federal Reserve, as policymakers will need time to assess the impact of the oil price shock and its implications for economic data.

Oil prices jumped above $119 per barrel on Monday, reaching levels not seen since mid-2022 after some major producers reduced supply amid fears of prolonged shipping disruptions as the war between the United States and Israel on one side and Iran on the other continues to expand.

Brent crude futures rose $12.77, or about 14%, to $105.46 per barrel by 11:26 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures also climbed $12.66, or 14%, to $103.56 per barrel.

During a highly volatile trading session, Brent earlier reached $119.50 per barrel, marking the largest absolute daily price jump in its history, while West Texas Intermediate rose to $119.48 per barrel.

Since the last market close before the strikes launched by the United States and Israel against Iran on February 28, Brent crude has risen by as much as 66%, while West Texas Intermediate has surged 77%.

Current prices are approaching the historical peak for oil futures, which reached around $147 per barrel in 2008, according to data from the London Stock Exchange Group dating back to the 1980s.

Market structure signals a severe supply shortage

The price spread between Brent crude for immediate delivery and contracts for delivery six months later rose to a new record on Monday of around $36, according to LSEG data going back to 2004.

This level is far above the previous peak of about $23 recorded in March 2022 during the early weeks of the Russia–Ukraine war.

Such a wide gap indicates a market structure known as “backwardation,” reflecting traders’ expectations of a severe shortage in current supplies.

The Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas exports normally pass, is now almost completely closed.

Prices were also supported by the appointment of Mojtaba Khamenei as Iran’s new supreme leader following the death of his father Ali Khamenei, signaling continued dominance of the hardline faction in Tehran after a week of war with the United States and Israel.

Risks of rising fuel prices worldwide

The conflict could leave consumers and businesses around the world facing weeks or even months of elevated fuel prices, even if the war ends quickly, due to damage to infrastructure, supply chain disruptions, and higher maritime shipping risks.

US gasoline futures rose to their highest levels since 2022 at around $3.22 per gallon, as US President Donald Trump assured consumers that the war’s impact on living costs would remain limited ahead of the midterm elections scheduled for November.

UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said alternatives remain limited, such as drawing from strategic petroleum reserves, but compared with the potential scale of supply disruption if the strait remains closed for longer, such measures would amount to “a drop in the ocean.”

US Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer urged President Trump to release oil from the strategic reserve, while a French government source said on Monday that G7 countries will also discuss this option.

Production cuts among major producers

Saudi Aramco has begun reducing production at two of its oil fields, according to informed sources. Analysts had already warned last week that major OPEC producers, including the United Arab Emirates, might soon need to cut output as storage facilities fill up.

Oil production in Iraq from its main southern fields has also fallen by 70% as storage capacity reached its limits.

Kuwait Petroleum Corporation also began cutting production on Saturday and declared force majeure on shipments, without specifying the volume of output that would be halted.

In an attempt to deal with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, Saudi Aramco offered more than 4 million barrels of Saudi crude in rare tenders, using the ability to redirect some exports through the Red Sea port of Yanbu.

Disruptions in gas and refining sectors

In gas markets, Qatar, the world’s largest exporter of liquefied natural gas, has already halted production after key infrastructure came under attack.

A fire also broke out in the Fujairah oil industrial zone in the United Arab Emirates after debris fell in the area, though no injuries were reported.

The supply crisis worsened with refining disruptions. Bahrain’s oil company declared force majeure after an attack on its refinery complex, while Saudi Arabia has already shut down its largest oil refinery.

Silver prices fell more than 5% in European trading on Monday, dropping below the $80 per ounce threshold, as the US dollar rose broadly in the foreign exchange market.

Rising energy costs have fueled concerns about accelerating inflation again across most of the world and have further reduced expectations for near-term interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.

Price Overview

Silver prices today: silver declined 5.7% to $79.65, down from the session opening level of $84.46, after reaching a high of $85.12.

At Friday’s settlement, silver rose 2.7%, marking the second gain in the past three days as prices recovered from a two-week low of $77.97 per ounce.

Last week, the white metal silver lost about 10%, marking its first weekly decline in three weeks as the US dollar strengthened amid the fallout from the Iran war.

US Dollar

The dollar index rose 0.85% on Monday to a four-month high of 99.70, reflecting broad strength in the US currency against a basket of global peers.

The rally comes as investors buy the US currency as a preferred safe-haven asset, with the Iran war entering its tenth day and signs growing of a broader military conflict in the Middle East, particularly after Mojtaba, Khamenei’s son, was selected as his successor — a move not welcomed in the United States.

Global oil prices

Global oil prices jumped about 30% on Monday, breaking above the $100 per barrel threshold for the first time since 2022 and approaching the $120 mark, as major oil producers in the Middle East cut supplies amid concerns that shipments through the Strait of Hormuz will remain disrupted.

US interest rates

According to the CME FedWatch tool from CME Group, markets are pricing a 98% probability that US interest rates will remain unchanged at the March meeting, while the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut stands at 2%.

Markets are also pricing an 85% probability that rates will remain unchanged at the April meeting, while the chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut stands at 15%.

To reassess these expectations, investors are closely watching the release of key US inflation data for February later this week.