Bitcoin moved only slightly on Tuesday, remaining largely within a narrow trading range amid ongoing uncertainty surrounding US trade tariffs and global growth prospects, which kept traders cautious toward risk-linked assets.

In contrast, Ether outperformed bitcoin after 180 Life Sciences announced it had raised $425 million to establish an Ether-denominated asset treasury.

Broader cryptocurrency markets saw slight gains, but failed to significantly benefit from Wall Street’s strong performance during the previous night’s session.

Bitcoin held steady at $114,373.5 as of 12:57 a.m. Eastern Time (04:57 GMT). The world’s largest digital asset continues to struggle to make meaningful gains after hitting a record high in mid-July, keeping cryptocurrency prices locked in a narrow trading range.

Crypto markets posted steep losses last week as risk appetite waned, triggering a wave of profit-taking across the sector. Institutional bitcoin purchases also failed to support prices, despite fresh acquisitions by Metaplanet and Strategy.

Tariffs and economic fog weigh on bitcoin

Risk appetite remained subdued as markets faced growing signs of a US economic slowdown — particularly after nonfarm payroll data for July came in below expectations, along with sharp downward revisions to the previous two months' figures.

While this data bolstered expectations of a September interest rate cut, it offered little positive momentum for cryptocurrency markets, which showed minimal reaction to Wall Street’s overnight rebound.

Risk appetite was also broadly constrained by uncertainty over the economic impact of new tariffs announced by US President Donald Trump, which are set to take effect this week.

On Monday, Trump threatened steep tariffs on India over its continued purchases of Russian oil — a move that sent the Indian rupee to record lows.

Oil prices held steady on Tuesday as traders weighed increased supply from the OPEC+ alliance and concerns over weakening global demand, against threats by US President Donald Trump targeting India’s purchases of Russian oil.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, collectively known as OPEC+, agreed on Sunday to raise oil production by 547,000 barrels per day for September, effectively ending the latest round of output cuts earlier than previously planned.

Brent crude futures fell by 36 cents, or 0.5%, to $68.40 a barrel by 09:10 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures dropped 41 cents to $65.88. Both contracts had declined by more than 1% on Monday, settling at their lowest levels in a week.

On Monday, Trump renewed his threats to impose higher tariffs on Indian goods over the country’s continued imports of Russian oil. New Delhi called his comments "unjustified" and vowed to defend its economic interests, escalating trade tensions between the two countries.

John Evans of oil brokerage PVM wrote in a report that the limited reaction in oil prices following Trump’s threats suggests traders are skeptical about actual supply disruptions. He questioned whether Trump would risk pushing oil prices higher.

Giovanni Staunovo, analyst at UBS, commented: “The oil market can be described as stable,” adding, “this situation is likely to persist until we see what the US president announces about Russia later this week and how buyers respond.”

India remains the largest buyer of seaborne Russian oil, having imported around 1.75 million barrels per day between January and June this year — a 1% increase compared to the same period last year, according to data provided by traders to Reuters.

Trump’s threats come amid renewed concerns over global oil demand, with some analysts expecting a slowdown in economic growth during the second half of the year.

JPMorgan said on Tuesday that US recession risks remain elevated. Analysts also noted that the July meeting of China’s Communist Party Politburo showed a shift in focus toward structural rebalancing of the world’s second-largest economy, with no signs of further policy easing.

The US dollar posted slight gains against both the euro and the Japanese yen, but remained near the lows recorded on Friday, after weak US jobs data boosted bets on Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and triggered a sharp selloff in the US currency.

Goldman Sachs expects the Federal Reserve to implement three consecutive interest rate cuts of 25 basis points starting in September, with the possibility of a 50-basis-point cut if the next jobs report shows a further rise in unemployment.

The firm also believes that the European Central Bank (ECB) has already concluded its monetary easing cycle.

Meanwhile, economists raised their growth forecasts for the Eurozone and Japan following what were described as moderate trade agreements, while affirming that Friday’s US jobs report showed the American economy is nearing a recession.

Elsewhere, analysts said that the dismissal of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) director on Friday and the resignation of Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler could prompt the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to adopt a more assertive stance in order to defend its independence. They noted that Kugler’s replacement would have only one vote on the committee.

The euro was last down 0.12% at $1.15592, after hitting $1.15855 on Friday.

The US Dollar Index — which measures the performance of the dollar against six major currencies — stood at 98.816, after earlier touching a one-week low of 98.609.

Thierry Wizman, global interest rates and currency strategist at Macquarie Group, stated: “Traders have likely concluded that the jobs report gave President Donald Trump further justification to ‘fire’ Jerome Powell.”

He added: “Or at least more support to appoint someone structurally more dovish as Fed Chair,” noting that the recent employment data has shifted the market’s outlook on the federal funds rate target one year from now.

Interest Rate Cuts

Financial markets now indicate a 92% probability that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at its upcoming September meeting, up from 63% a week ago. Markets are also pricing in a total of 130 basis points in rate cuts by October 2026, up by 30 basis points from expectations before Friday’s jobs data.

The Japanese yen fell by 0.14% to ¥147.3 per dollar, after minutes from the Bank of Japan’s June monetary policy meeting showed that some board members said the central bank might reconsider rate hikes if trade tensions ease.

Focus remains on trade-related uncertainty, following new tariffs imposed by Trump last week on imports from dozens of countries, which have raised concerns about the health of the global economy.

The Swiss franc extended its losses for a second consecutive day, falling 0.1% to 0.8089 against the dollar, after declining 0.5% in the previous session. However, it remains stronger than its levels before Friday’s data, when it traded around 0.8128.

Switzerland is seeking to present a “more attractive offer” in its trade talks with Washington, aiming to avoid a 39% US tariff on its exports — a move that threatens the country’s export-dependent economy.

In other currency markets, the Australian dollar declined by 0.05% to $0.6464, while the New Zealand dollar dropped by 0.1% to $0.5898.

Gold prices declined in European markets on Tuesday for the first time in four sessions, retreating from a two-week high due to active correction and profit-taking, moving into negative territory under pressure from a rebound in the US dollar.

After the probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September rose, investors are now awaiting multiple economic data releases and comments from monetary policymakers to gain further insight into the likely path of US interest rates for the remainder of the year.

The Price

• Gold prices today: Gold fell by 0.25% to $3,365.79, down from the opening level of $3,373.71, after recording a session high of $3,382.49.

• At Monday’s settlement, gold prices rose by 0.35%, marking a third consecutive daily gain, and reached a two-week high of $3,385.43 per ounce, supported by declining US yields.

The US Dollar

The US Dollar Index rose by 0.35% on Tuesday, extending its gains for the second straight session, as it continued to rebound from a two-week low of 98.59 points, reflecting sustained strength in the US dollar against a basket of global currencies.

In addition to buying from lower levels, the dollar's rebound is also supported by a pause in the decline of 10-year US Treasury yields, as markets await more evidence on the Federal Reserve's interest rate trajectory.

US Interest Rates

• San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly stated on Monday that, given increasing evidence of weakness in the US labor market and the absence of any indication of persistent tariff-driven inflation, the time has come to cut interest rates.

• Following her remarks, CME Group’s FedWatch Tool showed that the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in the September meeting rose from 75% to 88%, while the likelihood of no change dropped from 25% to 12%.

• The probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in October also increased from 95% to 97%, while the chance of no change fell from 5% to 3%.

• Traders have raised their expectations for Fed rate cuts this year after the dismal jobs data, now forecasting around 63 basis points of easing by December, up from 35 basis points previously.

• To reprice these expectations, investors await key data later today on the performance of the US services sector at the end of July.

Gold Outlook

• Kelvin Wong, market analyst for Asia-Pacific at OANDA, said: “Short-term bullish momentum has improved… The core narrative supporting gold prices is that the Federal Reserve still appears positioned to actually cut interest rates in September.”

• Wong added: “I still don’t expect gold to surge strongly above $3,450 per ounce unless there is a clear catalyst pushing prices to that level.”

SPDR Fund

Holdings of gold by the SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed ETF, rose by approximately 1.72 metric tons on Monday, bringing the total to 954.8 metric tons — rebounding from 953.08 metric tons, the lowest level since July 21.