Bitcoin moved slightly on Friday, heading for a monthly loss in October and breaking what investors call the “Uptober” trend — a seasonal rally the market has typically enjoyed. The decline came amid rising global risks and renewed trade tensions between the US and China, which dampened investor appetite for risk assets such as cryptocurrencies.

Bitcoin slipped 0.3% to $110,012, marking a monthly drop of around 3.7% in October.

Analysts said markets found little encouragement from the recent meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, as a tangible trade agreement between the two nations remains distant.

The crypto market also faced additional pressure earlier in the week from the Federal Reserve’s hawkish comments, while the strong rally in US tech stocks — fueled by optimism over artificial intelligence — had little impact on Bitcoin’s movement.

A rare seasonal decline: “Uptober” fails for the first time since 2018

Contrary to expectations, Bitcoin is on track for its first October loss since 2018, a month historically seen as positive for digital assets.

This was partly driven by escalating trade tensions between Washington and Beijing, which triggered a flash crash earlier this month from record highs. Since then, Bitcoin has failed to break above the $110,000 level, while spot and derivatives data show investors avoiding large positions.

Market indicators suggest cryptocurrencies have decoupled from US tech stocks in October, as the latter continue to rally to record highs on AI-driven momentum. For instance, the Nasdaq Composite is expected to post gains exceeding 4% this month.

Strong earnings for Bitcoin-linked firms

Shares of MicroStrategy Inc., the world’s largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, rose 6% in after-hours trading Thursday after the company reported stronger-than-expected results for the third quarter ended in September.

The firm said its performance was supported by record Bitcoin prices during the past three months.

CEO Michael Saylor reiterated his forecast that Bitcoin could reach $150,000 by the end of 2025.

Crypto exchange Coinbase Global Inc. also reported upbeat quarterly results, with strong growth in trading volumes during the third quarter pushing its shares higher on Thursday.

Broad decline in altcoins

Altcoins followed Bitcoin’s trajectory through October, posting steep losses.

Ethereum dropped 1.8% to $3,849.69, down 7% for the month. XRP fell 3%, bringing its monthly loss to 12.6%, while Solana declined 11% and Cardano plunged 24%, making it the worst performer among major tokens.

Binance Coin (BNB) was the notable exception, rising about 9% in October.

Among meme coins, Dogecoin slid 20% during the month, while $TRUMP gained roughly 9% following a sharp rally earlier this week.

Oil prices fell on Friday, heading for a third consecutive monthly loss, pressured by a stronger US dollar, weak economic data from China, and rising supplies from major producers around the world.

Brent crude futures dropped 38 cents, or 0.6%, to $64.62 a barrel by 10:08 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures slipped by a similar margin to $60.19 a barrel.

The losses came as the US dollar climbed to a three-month high against a basket of major currencies, making dollar-denominated commodities such as oil more expensive for holders of other currencies.

Falling prices in Asia and weak Chinese demand

Reuters reported that Saudi Arabia, the world’s top oil exporter, may cut its official selling prices to Asia in December to the lowest level in several months amid ample supply in the market — a move reflecting a further bearish tone.

Prices also came under pressure after an official Chinese survey showed manufacturing activity contracting for the seventh straight month in October, reinforcing concerns over slowing demand in the world’s second-largest oil consumer.

High supply and lower prices

Both Brent and WTI are on track to end October about 3.5% lower, as OPEC and major non-OPEC producers continue to increase output in a bid to defend market share.

Analysts noted that the additional supply could offset the impact of Western sanctions on Russian oil exports to China and India — the two biggest importers of Russian crude.

Leaked reports suggest the OPEC+ alliance is leaning toward another small production increase in December, according to sources familiar with internal discussions ahead of the group’s meeting on Sunday.

Since the start of the recent series of monthly increases, eight member states of the alliance have raised their collective output targets by over 2.7 million barrels per day — roughly 2.5% of global supply.

Record output in Saudi Arabia and the United States

Data from the Joint Organizations Data Initiative (JODI) showed Saudi crude exports reached 6.407 million barrels per day in August, the highest in six months.

In the United States, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported record production of 13.6 million barrels per day last week, intensifying concerns about a potential supply glut in global markets.

US–China: Unclear energy agreement

US President Donald Trump said Thursday that China had agreed to start purchasing American energy, noting the possibility of a large deal involving oil and gas from Alaska.

However, analysts expressed doubts about whether the trade understanding between Washington and Beijing would meaningfully boost Chinese demand for US energy, given the slowdown in China’s economy and persistent weakness in its manufacturing sector.

The Japanese yen rose on Friday after newly appointed Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said the government is monitoring currency movements “with a high degree of sensitivity,” even as the yen heads for its weakest monthly performance against the dollar since July.

The move followed a volatile week for Japan’s currency, which briefly strengthened after US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent criticized the Bank of Japan for not hiking rates quickly enough, only to fall again after the central bank left its policy unchanged as widely expected.

Katayama also walked back comments she made in March, when she estimated the yen’s fair value between 120 and 130 per dollar. She said Thursday that such remarks were “no longer appropriate” given her current role overseeing monetary policy — a statement that dampened optimism among traders betting on a stronger yen.

Tokyo inflation adds pressure on the Bank of Japan

Government data released Friday showed Tokyo’s core consumer prices rose 2.8% in October from a year earlier, exceeding forecasts and keeping inflation above target, complicating the BOJ’s task of determining when to begin tightening policy.

In European trading, the yen edged higher, with the dollar trading at 154.28 yen, slightly above a nine-month low for the Japanese currency. The yen has fallen about 4% against the dollar in October — its worst monthly showing since July — and also hit a record low against the euro.

“We’re reaching the point where yen weakness has become a genuine political concern in Japan,” said Sim Moh Siong, FX strategist at Bank of Singapore.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index held near a three-month high, supported by risk-off sentiment following a busy week of central-bank decisions, tech earnings, and an initial trade-truce deal between the US and China.

“Risk aversion is playing in favor of the dollar,” said Rodrigo Catril, currency strategist at National Australia Bank. “There’s still uncertainty over whether the Fed will actually deliver another rate cut in December.”

According to CME’s FedWatch tool, the probability of a December rate cut has fallen to about 75%, down from more than 90% a week earlier.

Euro steady, pound weakens

The euro rose 0.1% to $1.1572 after the European Central Bank kept rates unchanged at 2% for a third straight meeting, saying monetary policy is “well positioned” as economic risks ease. Still, the euro remains down roughly 1.4% against the dollar for October.

The British pound slipped to $1.3145 amid rising political pressure on UK Finance Minister Rachel Reeves. Sterling is heading for a monthly loss of about 2.3%, while gilt yields fell as investors sought safety ahead of November’s budget announcement and its potential economic fallout.

“The UK’s economic outlook looks fragile, and markets don’t like uncertainty,” said Fiona Cincotta, senior market analyst at City Index. “The government is in a difficult spot with very few options — and that’s showing up in sterling’s weakness.”

In Asia, the dollar held steady around 7.111 yuan in offshore trading, even after data showed China’s factory activity contracted for a seventh consecutive month in October, missing expectations.

Gold prices fell in European trading on Friday, resuming losses after a brief rebound the previous day from a three-week low, as the metal once again traded below the $4,000 per ounce mark under pressure from a stronger US dollar across global markets.

The decline came after the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting this week delivered a more hawkish tone than markets had expected, reducing the likelihood of another rate cut in December following two consecutive 25-basis-point reductions.

Despite today’s weakness, gold remains on track to post a third consecutive monthly gain, supported by persistent safe-haven demand amid heightened global political and trade tensions.

Price overview

• Gold prices fell 0.9% to $3,989.27 per ounce, after opening at $4,024.67 and hitting a session high of $4,046.35.

• On Thursday, the metal rose 2.4%, snapping a four-day losing streak, as it rebounded from a three-week low of $3,886.64.

US dollar

The US Dollar Index hovered near a three-month high around 99.72 points on Friday, reflecting continued strength in the greenback against major and minor peers.

The dollar’s gains have been supported by renewed safe-haven buying following the Fed’s hawkish stance this week, which increased doubts about further monetary easing or rate cuts.

Sentiment was also buoyed by signs of easing trade tensions between the United States and China after Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping met in South Korea and agreed to a temporary trade truce aimed at reviving negotiations.

Federal Reserve

As widely expected, the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday to 4.00%, the lowest since November 2022, marking its second consecutive cut this year.

The decision was backed by a majority of FOMC members, with two dissenters — Steven Miran, who favored a 50-basis-point cut, and Jeffrey Schmid, who preferred no change.

The policy statement noted slower job growth and a slight rise in unemployment while emphasizing that the labor market remains relatively tight. It also said economic activity continues to expand at a moderate pace and that inflation remains elevated compared with earlier this year.

Jerome Powell

Fed Chair Jerome Powell said Wednesday that another rate cut in December “is far from a given,” adding that policymakers hold “sharply divided views” on the path forward.

Powell acknowledged rising tensions in money markets in recent weeks and said the Fed has been managing liquidity conditions carefully. He emphasized that the central bank is relying on all available data — including private surveys and sector data — as official government reports remain unavailable due to the ongoing shutdown.

He described the current situation as “complex,” noting that the economy is caught between the risks of persistently high inflation and a weakening labor market, and said current policy remains “moderately restrictive.”

Interest-rate outlook

According to CME’s FedWatch Tool, market pricing for a 25-basis-point rate cut in December has fallen from 99% to 70%, while the probability of holding rates steady rose from 1% to 30%.

Monthly performance

• For October, gold is still up around 3.5%, on track for a third straight monthly gain.

• Earlier this month, the metal hit an all-time high of $4,381.73 before entering a broad correction and profit-taking phase.

Market outlook

Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade, said: “Powell’s tone was notably hawkish this week, which hasn’t been favorable for gold.”

He added that “the December rate-cut outlook now looks far less certain, boosting the dollar’s strength and complicating gold’s near-term appeal.”

SPDR Gold Trust

Holdings at the SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed ETF, rose by 4.3 metric tons on Thursday to 1,040.35 metric tons — their highest level since October 24.