Bitcoin saw sharp movements over the weekend, falling notably amid escalating tensions in the Middle East and their impact on global markets, before rebounding on Monday in a move driven primarily by futures liquidations rather than increased demand in the spot market.

Some traders took advantage of this volatility to shift toward investments linked to Bitcoin infrastructure, such as the Bitcoin Hyper project, which announced raising more than $32 million through an initial coin offering.

These movements came alongside rising oil prices and turmoil in risk assets after US President Donald Trump issued a 48-hour ultimatum to Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Despite later indications of a temporary pause in planned US strikes, any diplomatic progress remained unclear.

Geopolitics shakes markets

Bitcoin dropped from levels above $70,000 to around $67,360 before stabilizing near $70,500.

This decline coincided with escalating tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, a key passage through which about 20% of global oil supplies flow, and which has seen significant disruptions since late February.

In contrast, oil prices rose sharply, with US West Texas Intermediate crude approaching $101 per barrel and Brent crude climbing above $113, heightening inflation concerns.

Bitcoin’s decline also accelerated due to long position liquidations, with more than $240 million in leveraged positions liquidated within hours, indicating that the move was driven by macro factors rather than a structural shift in the long-term trend.

Recovery driven by futures, not spot demand

Despite the rebound on Monday, activity in the spot market remained weak, with monthly trading volumes on Binance falling to around $52 billion, the lowest level since the third quarter of 2023.

Flow data also showed weak participation, with seven-day inflows reaching $6.38 billion on Binance and $5.14 billion on Coinbase, among the weakest levels recently.

In contrast, activity among large investors was more pronounced, with “whale” inflows to exchanges increasing, pointing to greater hedging activity and capital rotation, which reinforces the market’s sensitivity to short-term volatility.

Bitcoin reached a weekly high of $71,789 during the US session, supported by signs of potential de-escalation, despite ongoing uncertainty.

However, this rise coincided with a roughly 4% decline in total open interest over 13 hours (equivalent to about 9,700 Bitcoin), indicating position closures rather than new position openings.

Short liquidations also exceeded $44 million within a single hour on Binance, while the US demand indicator remained weak, with trading concentrated in the $71,000 to $72,000 range.

Shift toward Bitcoin infrastructure

Amid this volatility, some capital is moving toward projects aimed at enhancing Bitcoin’s use cases, such as Bitcoin Hyper, which presents itself as a layer-two solution integrating technologies from other networks to accelerate transactions and reduce costs.

This trend reflects growing interest in building infrastructure to support the currency’s future use, at a time when macro factors — such as oil prices and geopolitical tensions — continue to drive price movements in the short term.

Oil prices rose on Tuesday amid continued disruption to global supply, as Iran denied holding any talks with the United States to end the war in the Gulf, contradicting statements by US President Donald Trump, who said a deal could be near.

Oil contracts had fallen more than 10% on Monday after Trump ordered a five-day delay in attacks on Iranian energy facilities, citing talks with unnamed Iranian officials that resulted in “major points of agreement.”

On Tuesday, however, Brent crude futures rose by $1.83, or 1.8%, to $101.77 per barrel as of 11:30 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate crude gained $2.21, or 2.5%, to $90.34.

The war has led to a near-total disruption of shipments for about one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas supplies through the Strait of Hormuz, causing what the International Energy Agency described as the largest disruption to oil supplies ever.

Nikos Tzabouras, an analyst at Tradu, a platform owned by Jefferies, said: “The reality on the ground has not changed. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, and supply disruptions continue, leading to tighter market conditions.”

In a field development, Iran launched waves of missiles toward Israel on Tuesday. Three senior Israeli officials — who requested anonymity — were quoted as saying that Trump appears determined to reach a deal, but they see it as unlikely that Iran will agree to US demands in any new round of negotiations.

BCA Research said in a report that “the conflict with Iran is witnessing initial de-escalation, but risks related to the Strait of Hormuz remain,” adding that “with continued risks of attacks and volatile news flow, it is still too early to take strong investment positions betting on lower oil prices.”

Macquarie noted that if the strait remains effectively closed through the end of April, Brent crude could reach $150 per barrel, exceeding its previous record high of $147 recorded in 2008.

In the latest attacks on energy infrastructure in the region, Iran’s Fars News Agency reported that a gas company office and a pressure-reduction station were bombed in the city of Isfahan, while a projectile struck a gas pipeline supplying a power plant in Khorramshahr.

Gold prices fell in European trading on Tuesday, extending their movement in negative territory for the fifth consecutive day and approaching again the lowest levels in four months, under pressure from the rebound of the US dollar in the foreign exchange market.

Uncertainty has increased once again in markets regarding developments in the Middle East war, especially after targeting Iranian energy facilities, in a development that significantly complicates the diplomatic landscape.

Observers believe these US-Israeli airstrikes undermine already fragile “bridges of trust” and make it difficult for Tehran to sit at the negotiating table under direct military pressure.

Price Overview

Gold prices today: gold fell 2.3% to $4,305.97, down from the session opening level of $4,406.67, after reaching a high of $4,448.40.

At Monday’s settlement, gold lost 1.9%, marking its fourth consecutive daily loss, and recorded its lowest level in four months at $4,098.23 per ounce.

Prices had pared losses of around 9% after US President Donald Trump announced talks with Iran and delayed targeting Iranian energy facilities.

US dollar

The dollar index rose on Tuesday, beginning to recover from a two-week low, reflecting a renewed increase in the US currency against a basket of global currencies.

The index had slipped on Monday to its lowest level in two weeks after US President Donald Trump postponed strikes on Iran’s electricity grid, a move that eased concerns about a prolonged war in the Middle East.

Iran war developments

Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform that the United States and Iran had held “very good and productive talks” on a “comprehensive and final resolution” to hostilities in the Middle East.

Trump added that he had instructed the Department of War to postpone all military strikes on Iranian energy facilities and infrastructure for five days.

According to Iranian news agencies, officials denied holding any talks with the United States, with some describing the reports as false and aimed only at calming markets.

Contrary to expectations, US and Israeli air forces launched intensive strikes on some energy facilities in Iran on Tuesday, a development that is expected to escalate military confrontations and prompt Iran’s Revolutionary Guard to carry out missile attacks on energy facilities in Israel and Gulf countries.

US interest rates

According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets are currently pricing a 92% probability that US interest rates will remain unchanged at the April meeting, while the probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike stands at 8%.

To reassess these expectations, investors are closely monitoring further economic data releases from the United States, in addition to tracking comments from Federal Reserve officials.

Gold outlook

Rajat Bhattacharya, chief investment strategist at Standard Chartered, said that although gold initially rose due to safe-haven demand at the start of the Iran conflict, prices have recently declined.

Bhattacharya added that this pattern is often repeated during periods of market stress, as investors raise liquidity to cover margin calls or simply take profits where possible, noting that the recent strength of the dollar has also weighed on gold demand.

SPDR fund

Holdings of the SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, declined by 4.29 metric tons on Monday, marking the eighth consecutive daily decline, bringing the total to 1,052.70 metric tons, the lowest level since December 17.

The euro fell in European trading on Tuesday against a basket of global currencies, retreating from a two-week high against the US dollar amid corrective activity and profit-taking, as demand returned for the US currency as a preferred safe-haven asset, especially after the United States and Israel launched airstrikes on Iranian energy infrastructure.

Targeting Iranian energy facilities has significantly complicated the diplomatic landscape, as observers believe these strikes undermine already fragile “bridges of trust” and make it difficult for Tehran to return to the negotiating table under direct military pressure.

To assess the impact of the Iran war and rising energy prices on economic activity in Europe, markets are awaiting the release of key data on the main industrial and services sectors for March later today.

Price Overview

Euro exchange rate today: the euro fell 0.3% against the dollar to $1.1576, down from the session opening level of $1.1612, after reaching a high of $1.1618.

The euro ended Monday’s session up 0.35% against the dollar, hitting a two-week high of $1.1640 after Donald Trump announced talks with Iran and delayed any military strikes on Iranian energy facilities for five days.

US dollar

The dollar index rose on Tuesday, beginning to recover from a two-week low, reflecting a renewed rise in the US currency against a basket of global currencies.

The index fell on Monday to its lowest level in two weeks after US President Donald Trump postponed strikes on Iran’s electricity grid, a move that eased concerns about a prolonged war in the Middle East.

Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform that the United States and Iran had held “very good and productive talks” on a “comprehensive and final resolution” to hostilities in the Middle East.

Trump added: I have instructed the Department of War to delay all military strikes on Iranian energy facilities and infrastructure for five days.

According to Iranian news agencies, Iranian officials denied holding any talks with the United States, with some describing such reports as false and aimed only at calming markets.

Contrary to expectations, US and Israeli air forces launched intense strikes on some energy facilities in Iran on Tuesday, a move likely to escalate military confrontations and prompt Iran’s Revolutionary Guard to carry out missile attacks on energy facilities in Israel and Gulf countries.

European interest rates

The European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged last week for the sixth consecutive meeting.

Sources told Reuters that the European Central Bank is likely to begin discussing interest rate hikes next month.

Following the meeting, money markets increased pricing for a 25-basis-point rate hike by the European Central Bank at the April meeting from 1% to 25%.

To reassess these expectations, investors are awaiting the release of key data on the main sectors of the European economy for March later today.