Bitcoin (BTC) continues to trade within a narrow range, stabilizing just below the $118,000 level. At the time of writing, Bitcoin stands at $116,709, having moved within a daily range of $116,074 to $117,596. This subdued price action reflects broader market hesitation, with no strong momentum in either direction.

Analysts point to immediate support at $116,000, which has been tested multiple times during the session and has held firmly. On the upside, the $117,500 level has emerged as a key resistance that buyers must overcome to reignite bullish momentum. Unless one of these two levels is decisively broken, Bitcoin is likely to remain in a consolidation phase over the short term.

In the absence of a surge in trading volume or sharp increases in volatility, traditional technical indicators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) are expected to stay neutral. The RSI is likely to hover near the 50 mark, signaling no overbought or oversold conditions, while the MACD readings are expected to remain flat in line with the current tight trading range.

From a technical analysis perspective, a breakout above $117,600 could open the door to higher levels, with $118,000 and $120,000 seen as the next bullish targets. Conversely, a drop below $116,000 may increase selling pressure, pushing the price down toward the $115,000 zone.

Market participants are closely monitoring macroeconomic factors, risk sentiment indicators, and upcoming events in the crypto space that could trigger a price breakout. For now, Bitcoin remains in a wait-and-see mode, and traders should watch for a clear move beyond the current range between $116,000 and $117,600 to confirm the next direction. A decisive breakout is likely to set the tone for Bitcoin’s short-term path — either in an attempt to regain bullish momentum or to defend key support levels.

$123K: The Next Stop for the King of Crypto?

Technical analysis reveals that Bitcoin has formed several highly bullish chart patterns expected to drive further gains this month. For example, the cryptocurrency has formed an ascending triangle, marked by a horizontal resistance at $111,822 and a rising trendline.

Bitcoin has also developed a bull flag pattern, consisting of a flagpole and a descending channel — a setup that often leads to additional gains. This outlook becomes more likely following Bitcoin’s recent successful retest of the $111,822 support level.

In addition, Bitcoin continues to receive support from the 100-period moving average and remains above the rising trendline that has been intact since April. Based on this setup, the most probable scenario is a continuation of the upward trend, with an initial target of the psychological resistance at $120,000, followed by $123,118 — the all-time high.

Oil prices rose slightly on Friday but were on track to record their biggest weekly losses since late June, amid tariff-driven economic concerns and the possibility of a meeting between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin.

By 11:04 GMT, Brent crude futures were up 52 cents, or 0.78%, at $66.95 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 43 cents, or 0.67%, to $64.31 a barrel.

Brent crude is set to decline by 3.9% for the week, while WTI is heading for a weekly loss of 4.5% compared to last Friday’s close.

Analysts at ANZ Bank noted in a memo that new US tariffs on several trading partners, which came into effect on Thursday, have raised concerns about economic activity and demand for crude oil.

The tariffs come against the backdrop of a weaker-than-expected US labor market, along with Thursday’s Kremlin announcement that Putin and Trump will meet in the coming days, amid rising trade tensions between the US and buyers of Russian oil.

Earlier this week, Trump threatened to raise tariffs on India if it continues buying Russian oil — a move seen by markets as further pressure on Russia to reach an agreement with the US, according to independent analyst Tina Teng.

Trump also warned that China — the largest buyer of Russian crude — could face similar tariffs to those imposed on Indian imports.

The prospect of a Trump-Putin meeting has sparked hopes of a diplomatic resolution to the war in Ukraine, potentially leading to an easing of sanctions on Russia. Russian stocks surged following the announcement.

Analysts at Commerzbank wrote in a note: “There may be a meeting between Trump and Putin in the near future, which could signal that Trump is adopting a wait-and-see approach regarding further sanctions on Russia and its allies.” Still, some analysts remain cautious.

Tamas Varga, analyst at PVM Oil, said: “The Russian leader is expected to insist on his territorial demands, which are difficult for the invaded country to accept, while his American counterpart will likely push for a ceasefire.”

He added: “A breakthrough in negotiations is unlikely, and the threat of US secondary sanctions on any party dealing in the Russian energy sector — including China and India — remains on the table.”

The US dollar rose slightly on Friday but was on track for a weekly decline after US President Donald Trump's interim pick for a Federal Reserve Board member sparked expectations of a dovish successor to Jerome Powell when his term ends.

The yen slipped slightly against the dollar, which dropped 0.31% to 147.560 yen. The dollar rose 0.25% against the euro to $1.163775 and climbed 0.29% against the Swiss franc to 0.80840 francs.

Amid concerns over slowing US economic growth, especially in the labor market—fueling hopes for Fed rate cuts—the dollar has declined 0.6% so far this week against a basket of major currencies. On Friday, the US Dollar Index edged up 0.1% to 98.15.

Markets focused on Trump’s nomination of Council of Economic Advisers Chair Stephen Miran to fill a recent vacancy on the Federal Reserve Board as the White House continues its search for a permanent replacement. Miran will take over from Governor Adriana Kugler, who unexpectedly resigned last week.

Michael Brown, chief research strategist at Pepperstone, commented, “In many ways, this confirms what we already suspected: we're looking at a Federal Reserve more politically influenced and less independent.” He added that this reinforces his long-term bearish outlook on the dollar, though he noted Miran has relatively low market credibility.

Brown added, “We all expect that at the September FOMC meeting—and any future meetings Miran attends—he will be highly dovish, advocating significant rate cuts, essentially following the president's directive.”

While investors remain concerned about the Fed’s independence and credibility following Trump’s repeated criticism of Powell for not cutting rates, some analysts believe Miran’s appointment is unlikely to have a major impact.

Reeza Rashid, global markets strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management in Singapore, said, “We still believe the central bank’s independence will largely remain intact,” forecasting that the Fed would stay focused on incoming data and the overall health of the US economy.

Trump has fiercely criticized Powell, and expectations of a dovish successor have weighed on the dollar this week—even though Trump has recently pulled back from threats to fire Powell before his term ends on May 15.

Bloomberg reported on Thursday that Fed Governor Christopher Waller—who voted in favor of a rate cut at the last meeting—is emerging as one of the top contenders to replace Powell.

Investors now shift their attention to next week’s US consumer price inflation data, with Reuters survey respondents expecting core inflation to rise 0.3% month-over-month in July. These figures will offer clues on whether tariff-induced inflation pressures are emerging and help shape the Fed’s policy path.

Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said Thursday that although labor market risks are rising, it’s still too early to commit to a rate cut, pointing out that more data will be available before the next policy meeting on September 16–17.

Traders are pricing in a 93% probability of a rate cut in September, with at least two cuts expected before year-end.

The dollar has broadly weakened this year, falling 9.5% against a basket of major currencies as investors seek alternatives amid concerns over Trump’s volatile trade policies. Analysts expect continued pressure on the dollar but don’t foresee a sharp collapse.

Rashid added, “We expect a scenario of bending, but not breaking, for the dollar.”

As for the British pound, it touched a new two-week high at $1.34515, maintaining strong gains from Thursday after the Bank of England cut interest rates. However, the 5–4 vote revealed weak consensus on the easing path.

Goldman Sachs analysts said the split vote “suggests one of the most hawkish 25-basis-point cuts that could reasonably be expected.” The pound appears headed for its best weekly performance since late June.

Gold prices declined in the European market on Friday, pulling back from a two-week high reached earlier during Asian trading. The drop came amid profit-taking activity and pressure from a rebound in US dollar levels in the foreign exchange market.

Despite the decline, the precious metal is on track to post its second consecutive weekly gain, supported by safe-haven demand amid rising trade tensions and growing expectations of a US interest rate cut in September.

Price Overview

• Gold Prices Today: Gold fell by approximately 0.5% to $3,381.23, down from the opening price of $3,397.13. It recorded an intraday high of $3,409.10 — the highest since July 23.

• On Thursday, gold rose 0.85%, resuming gains after a brief pause, marking its fourth increase in five days as part of a consolidation phase.

US Dollar

The US Dollar Index rose 0.25% on Friday, rebounding from a two-week low at 97.95, reflecting a recovery in the US currency against a basket of major and minor currencies.

President Donald Trump announced that he will nominate Stephen Miran, head of the Council of Economic Advisers, to fill the vacant seat at the Federal Reserve.

A Bloomberg News report revealed that Fed Governor Christopher Waller is now the leading candidate to succeed Jerome Powell when his term expires on May 15, 2026.

Gold Futures

US gold futures for December delivery jumped 0.9% to $3,484.10, after hitting a record high of $3,534.10 per ounce. This widened the spread between futures prices in New York and spot prices to over $100.

The Financial Times reported on Thursday that the US had imposed tariffs on imports of one-kilogram gold bars, citing a letter from Customs and Border Protection.

The letter, dated July 31, stated that one-kilogram and 100-ounce gold bars must now be classified under a tariff code subject to higher duties — a move likely to impact Switzerland, the world’s top gold refining hub.

Weekly Performance

As of Friday’s settlement, gold prices are up about 0.55% for the week, putting the metal on course for its second straight weekly gain.

US Interest Rate Outlook

• Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari stated that the Federal Reserve may need to cut interest rates in the near term in response to slowing US economic growth.

• San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said on Monday that with growing evidence of labor market weakness and no signs of sustained tariff-driven inflation, it is time to lower interest rates.

• Following these remarks, CME Group’s FedWatch Tool shows that the odds of a 25 basis-point cut at the September meeting have increased from 88% to 94%, while odds of holding rates steady dropped from 12% to 6%.

• Expectations for a 25 basis-point rate cut in October also rose from 95% to 98%, with odds of no change falling from 5% to 2%.

• Investors are closely watching additional commentary from Fed officials throughout the day to reassess these probabilities.

Gold Market Outlook

Bryan Lan, Managing Director at Singapore-based GoldSilver Central, said that the tariffs on gold bars are likely to disrupt — or at least complicate — settlement processes among major banks. “This has already affected liquidity prices this morning, with gold prices spiking across the board,” he added.

SPDR Gold Trust

Holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust — the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund — jumped by 6.3 metric tons on Thursday, marking the biggest daily increase since July 22. Total holdings rose to 959.09 metric tons, the highest since September 16, 2022.