Bitcoin posted gains on Wednesday after a mild recovery, as investors positioned themselves ahead of a widely expected Federal Reserve decision to cut interest rates later today. However, the advance remained limited by expectations of hawkish policy signals.

The world’s largest cryptocurrency rose 1.2% to trade at $92,672.7 at 01:55 Eastern Time (06:55 GMT, after climbing above $94,000 on Tuesday.

Bitcoin has remained range-bound in recent days following one of its steepest monthly declines in years during November, when risk assets broadly retreated.

The Fed is expected to deliver a “hawkish cut”

Market expectations point to a 25-basis-point reduction later today, with probabilities above 85%.

But investors anticipate policymakers will signal that further easing is not guaranteed, given still-elevated inflation and deep divisions inside the Federal Open Market Committee.

With the decision due this evening, comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell — alongside updated economic projections — will be crucial in shaping market sentiment.

A more hawkish tone could strengthen the US dollar and push Treasury yields higher, reducing appetite for non-yielding, high-risk assets such as Bitcoin.

It could also slow inflows into exchange-traded crypto products, which saw robust demand earlier in the year amid optimism over the global AI-investment cycle and rising institutional exposure to digital assets.

With global markets in wait-and-see mode and volatility elevated, analysts expect Bitcoin to trade within a narrow band until the Fed provides clearer direction.

US regulators: banks can act as intermediaries in crypto transactions

The US Office of the Comptroller of the Currency said Tuesday that American banks are now permitted to act as intermediaries in digital-asset transactions, a move that strengthens integration between the traditional financial sector and the digital-asset economy.

Under the new guidance, national banks may conduct “risk-less principal” crypto transactions — buying and reselling assets simultaneously without holding them on their balance sheets.

The decision aligns with broader regulatory efforts by the current administration to lower barriers between Wall Street and the crypto sector.

Crypto prices today: Ethereum jumps 7%

Most major altcoins recorded gains on Wednesday, outperforming Bitcoin.

Ethereum, the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency, rose 6.8% to $3,323.92.

XRP, the third-largest token, gained 2% to $2.08.

Oil prices held steady on Wednesday as traders monitored any progress in peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, while awaiting the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate decision.

After falling around 1% in the previous session, Brent crude rose $0.07, or 0.1%, to $62.01 a barrel by 10:39 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate gained $0.10, or 0.2%, to $58.35 a barrel.

Two market sources citing American Petroleum Institute data said Tuesday that US crude inventories fell by 4.78 million barrels last week, while gasoline stockpiles rose by 7 million barrels and distillate inventories increased by 1.03 million barrels. Official government data is due at 15:30 GMT.

Meanwhile, investors broadly expected the Federal Reserve to cut its benchmark rate by a quarter point on Wednesday to support a cooling labor market.

Lower interest rates can boost oil demand by stimulating economic growth, though gains remain capped by concerns that supply may outpace consumption. Analysts at ING noted that the oil market is moving toward a larger surplus, while Russian supply remains a key risk.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said his country and its European partners will soon provide the United States with “revised documents” for a peace proposal aimed at ending the war with Russia.

A peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine could lead to a lifting of international sanctions on Russian companies, potentially freeing up currently restricted oil supply.

Separately, the US Energy Information Administration said it expects US oil production to rise more than previously forecast this year. It raised its 2025 output estimate by 20,000 barrels to a record average of 13.61 million barrels per day, but cut its 2026 forecast by 50,000 barrels to 13.53 million barrels per day.

Sterling edged slightly higher against the US dollar and held broadly steady versus the euro on Wednesday, as investors awaited the Federal Reserve’s policy decision later in the session, along with UK GDP data due on Friday.

The US dollar weakened against both the euro and the yen as markets positioned for an interest-rate cut accompanied by a potentially hawkish message from the Fed.

The pound rose 0.10% against the dollar to 1.3313, after touching 1.3385 last week — its highest level since 21 October. The currency has gained about 1% since Finance Minister Rachel Reeves delivered the budget on 26 November.

Francesca Fornasari, head of currency at Insight Investment, said sterling had benefited from “post-budget relief,” noting that “a lot of bad news was already priced in before 26 November.”

Looking ahead, she added that the pound will need stronger growth-related data to outperform its European peers.

Some analysts pointed to modestly positive revisions to last week’s PMI figures, suggesting that the UK economy is not slowing as sharply as previously feared. Meanwhile, several companies reported delaying investment due to uncertainty surrounding Reeves’ budget.

Expectations for the UK’s growth outlook remain mixed.

Mark Dowding, chief investment officer at BlueBay at RBC BlueBay Asset Management, said: “Weaker UK growth expectations suggest there is room for the Bank of England to surprise markets with more rate cuts than currently priced in.”

UK GDP figures will be released on Friday.

Investors are also awaiting next week’s Bank of England rate decision. Several policymakers expressed differing views on Tuesday regarding the future of monetary policy, highlighting the continued division within the Monetary Policy Committee.

Markets are pricing a 50-basis-point cut by next summer, alongside a roughly 90% probability of a rate reduction next week.

The euro inched up 0.02% against sterling to 87.43 pence, after reaching 87.21 pence on Tuesday — its lowest level since 24 October.

Money markets have recently scaled back expectations for a potential rate cut from the European Central Bank, offering support to the euro.

Gold prices rose in the European market on Wednesday, extending gains for a second consecutive session, supported by a pause in the US dollar’s advance against a basket of major currencies and by a modest uptick in safe-haven buying of the metal.

However, the current rise remains limited as investors stay cautious ahead of the final Federal Reserve policy decision of the year. The central bank is widely expected to announce a third consecutive 25-basis-point rate cut, along with key updates on the projected path of interest rates through 2026.

Price Overview

• Gold prices today: Gold rose 0.3% to $4218.85 from an opening level of $4207.68, after hitting a low of $4201.12.

• At Tuesday’s settlement, gold gained 0.45% — its first increase in three sessions — with safe-haven inflows providing modest support.

US Dollar

The dollar index fell 0.2% on Wednesday, retreating from a one-week high and heading toward its first loss in three sessions, reflecting a pause in the US currency’s recent upward momentum.

Federal Reserve

The Federal Reserve concludes its final policy meeting of 2025 later today, with expectations pointing to a 25-basis-point cut in the federal funds rate — the third consecutive reduction this year.

The interest-rate decision, monetary-policy statement, and updated economic projections will be released at 19:00 GMT, followed by Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference at 19:30 GMT.

These updates are expected to offer stronger clarity on the direction of monetary policy and the likelihood of further rate cuts in 2026.

Kevin Hassett — the White House’s senior economic adviser and the leading candidate to succeed Powell — said Tuesday that there is “plenty of room” for deeper rate cuts, although persistently high inflation may alter the calculus.

Gold Outlook

• Kelvin Wong, market analyst for Asia-Pacific at OANDA, said investors are significantly repositioning ahead of the Fed’s policy decision.

• At FX News Today, our view is as follows: If the Fed’s updates and messaging turn out more aggressive than markets currently expect, the probability of additional rate cuts in 2026 may decline, placing stronger downward pressure on gold.

SPDR Fund

Holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust — the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund — fell by 1.14 metric tons on Tuesday, marking a third consecutive daily decline. Total holdings now stand at 1,047.97 metric tons, the lowest since December 3.