Bitcoin remained under pressure on Thursday, trading below the $64,000 level as investors reacted to hawkish signals from the US Federal Reserve and mixed indications regarding institutional demand for the cryptocurrency.

The world's largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization continues to struggle to build momentum, as risk appetite across financial markets weakens following the Fed’s shift toward a more restrictive policy stance despite leaving interest rates unchanged.

Federal Reserve holds rates steady but adopts a hawkish tone

The US Federal Reserve left its benchmark interest rate unchanged within a range of 3.50% to 3.75% at its latest meeting, the first chaired by Kevin Warsh.

While the decision itself was widely expected, markets focused more heavily on the central bank’s updated guidance and economic projections.

The Fed removed language that had previously suggested a bias toward further monetary easing, instead signaling that interest rates could remain elevated for longer.

Policymakers also raised their year-end interest rate forecast to 3.8%, up from 3.4% projected in March.

The revised outlook prompted traders to increase bets on further monetary tightening, with markets now pricing in roughly an 85% probability of a rate hike in December.

As a result, US Treasury yields climbed and the dollar strengthened, reducing the appeal of higher-risk assets such as cryptocurrencies.

Institutional demand for Bitcoin remains mixed

Institutional demand continues to provide only limited support for a sustained Bitcoin recovery.

According to CoinGlass data, spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded net outflows of $82.2 million on Wednesday.

The uneven flow pattern, combined with a slight negative bias, suggests institutional investors remain cautious amid ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty.

If outflows continue or accelerate in coming sessions, Bitcoin could face additional downside pressure.

Technical outlook: weak rebound within a broader downtrend

Recent price action suggests Bitcoin’s rebound from oversold conditions may have been driven more by seller exhaustion than by a meaningful return of buying interest.

The cryptocurrency remains locked in a short-term bearish structure and continues to trade below several key moving averages.

Bitcoin is currently trading below:

* The 50-day exponential moving average at $70,042.

* The 100-day exponential moving average at $72,839.

* The 200-day exponential moving average at $78,174.

Failure to reclaim these levels reinforces the broader bearish trend and highlights persistent selling pressure at higher prices.

In addition, the previously broken ascending support level near $73,833 has now become a major resistance zone.

Technical indicators warrant caution

Technical indicators continue to point toward a cautious outlook.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the four-hour chart remains below the 50 level, indicating that bearish momentum persists without yet reaching deeply oversold territory.

Meanwhile, the MACD histogram remains slightly positive, suggesting recent rebounds may represent corrective moves within a broader downtrend rather than the beginning of a sustained bullish phase.

Key resistance levels

If Bitcoin attempts another recovery, traders are likely to focus on several important resistance levels:

* $64,004, the first key resistance area.

* $70,042, corresponding to the 50-day exponential moving average.

A decisive break above these levels would be required to improve the technical picture and reduce the selling pressure currently dominating the market.

Oil prices fell more than 1% on Thursday, hitting their lowest levels since the first trading session after the Iran war began, as the temporary agreement between the United States and Iran to end the conflict, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and ease sanctions on Tehran strengthened expectations of higher global crude supplies.

Brent crude futures fell $1.02, or 1.28%, to $78.53 per barrel by 10:36 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate crude dropped $1.48, or 1.93%, to $75.31 per barrel.

Brent touched its lowest level since March 2, the first trading day after the initial US and Israeli strikes on Iran, while WTI fell to its lowest level since March 4.

“The selloff continued as energy markets kept pricing in a faster-than-expected return of Iranian oil to global markets following the latest memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran,” said Tony Sycamore, market analyst at IG.

A 60-day negotiation period

The 14-point memorandum of understanding provides for a 60-day negotiation period, during which Iran will allow vessels to pass through the Strait of Hormuz without transit fees. The strait is one of the world’s most important routes for oil and gas shipments.

The agreement also calls for shipping activity through the strait to be restored to full capacity within 30 days.

The preliminary deal delays several of the most complex issues, most notably Iran’s nuclear program. It also requires the United States and its partners to establish a $300 billion funding plan to support the reconstruction and recovery of Iran’s economy.

Expectations of a gradual export recovery

Analysts expect oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz to recover gradually, while industry experts warned that prices may not collapse sharply as global demand improves and countries rebuild oil inventories depleted during the war.

Goldman Sachs expects Gulf exports to return to pre-war levels by the end of July, with oil production fully recovering by October.

The bank estimates that restoring exports to pre-war levels would require oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz to increase by around 13 million barrels per day from current levels, bringing traffic back to about 70% of pre-war volumes.

$75 seen as a strong price floor

BNP Paribas does not expect prices to return to pre-war levels for now, viewing the $75 per barrel level as a “strong and sustainable price floor for the foreseeable future,” due to continued supply losses and stronger global demand.

Brent crude had traded between $60 and $70 per barrel during the first two months of the year before the Iran war began.

Slower Chinese demand

In China, the world’s second-largest oil consumer, a report from PetroChina’s research unit showed that the country’s oil consumption in 2026 is expected to reach 753 million metric tons, down 4.9% from 2025.

The decline is attributed to the accelerated shift toward new energy sources and higher oil prices.

Additional geopolitical developments

Meanwhile, Ukrainian drones targeted an oil refinery in the Russian capital Moscow for the second time this week, in what Kyiv said reflected its growing military ability to carry out long-range strikes inside Russian territory.

The Bank of England issued its interest rate decision on Thursday at the conclusion of its June 18 meeting, leaving rates unchanged at 3.75%, the lowest level since December 2022, in line with market expectations and marking the fourth consecutive meeting with no change.

This statement is positive for the British pound.

The US dollar climbed to its highest level in more than a year on Thursday after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged while adopting a more hawkish tone, reinforcing investor expectations that additional rate hikes could be delivered in the coming months. Meanwhile, renewed weakness in the Japanese yen prompted fresh verbal warnings from Japanese officials.

Federal Reserve signals potential tightening

The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged within the 3.50%-3.75% range, while new Chair Kevin Warsh began his tenure with a broad review of the central bank’s policy framework. Updated projections showed that nearly half of policymakers expect interest rates to rise this year as inflation concerns remain elevated.

Fed funds futures markets are now fully pricing in a rate hike by October, according to LSEG data, while stronger-than-expected US retail sales figures further reinforced hawkish expectations.

The euro fell 0.3% to $1.146, while the British pound dropped 0.54% to $1.322, leaving both currencies at their lowest levels in more than two months.

The US Dollar Index, which measures the greenback against a basket of major currencies including the yen, euro, and pound, rose 0.36% to 100.71, its highest level since May 2025.

The index had already surged 0.85% in the previous session, marking its biggest daily gain in more than three months.

“The hawkish update from the Federal Reserve raises the risk of a significant bullish breakout for the US dollar,” said Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst at MUFG.

“The dollar has been supported by a sharp rise in short-term US interest rate expectations, more than offsetting the negative impact from the announcement of the US-Iran agreement over the weekend,” he added.

In energy markets, oil prices fell on Thursday after the United States and Iran signed a temporary agreement aimed at ending the conflict, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and exempting Iranian oil exports from US sanctions, reducing some safe-haven demand for the dollar.

However, lower oil prices were not enough to halt the dollar’s advance as markets increasingly priced in further monetary tightening.

“Markets are currently assessing whether the Strait of Hormuz can truly be reopened to unrestricted shipping,” said Kimi Tong, Global Markets and FX Strategist at Everbright Securities International.

“Until that becomes certain, sentiment supporting dollar strength is likely to remain dominant, especially given the Federal Reserve’s increasingly hawkish stance,” she added.

Meanwhile, the Australian dollar, often viewed as a risk-sensitive currency, slipped 0.1%.

Japanese yen

The Japanese yen weakened to 160.90 per dollar, its lowest level since July 2024, erasing the gains recorded after Japanese authorities intervened in the foreign exchange market on April 30.

The renewed decline triggered another response from Japanese officials, who reiterated their readiness to support the currency if necessary.

“We are prepared to take appropriate action regarding currency market movements whenever needed,” Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara told reporters on Thursday when asked about the yen’s weakness.

Elsewhere, attention is turning to the Bank of England, which is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged at 3.75% at Thursday’s policy meeting while policymakers assess the impact of the temporary truce in the Iran conflict on the inflation outlook.