Bitcoin remains below $64,000 as hawkish Fed stance and ETF outflows weigh on sentiment

Bitcoin remained under pressure on Thursday, trading below the $64,000 level as investors reacted to hawkish signals from the US Federal Reserve and mixed indications regarding institutional demand for the cryptocurrency.

The world's largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization continues to struggle to build momentum, as risk appetite across financial markets weakens following the Fed’s shift toward a more restrictive policy stance despite leaving interest rates unchanged.

Federal Reserve holds rates steady but adopts a hawkish tone

The US Federal Reserve left its benchmark interest rate unchanged within a range of 3.50% to 3.75% at its latest meeting, the first chaired by Kevin Warsh.

While the decision itself was widely expected, markets focused more heavily on the central bank’s updated guidance and economic projections.

The Fed removed language that had previously suggested a bias toward further monetary easing, instead signaling that interest rates could remain elevated for longer.

Policymakers also raised their year-end interest rate forecast to 3.8%, up from 3.4% projected in March.

The revised outlook prompted traders to increase bets on further monetary tightening, with markets now pricing in roughly an 85% probability of a rate hike in December.

As a result, US Treasury yields climbed and the dollar strengthened, reducing the appeal of higher-risk assets such as cryptocurrencies.

Institutional demand for Bitcoin remains mixed

Institutional demand continues to provide only limited support for a sustained Bitcoin recovery.

According to CoinGlass data, spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded net outflows of $82.2 million on Wednesday.

The uneven flow pattern, combined with a slight negative bias, suggests institutional investors remain cautious amid ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty.

If outflows continue or accelerate in coming sessions, Bitcoin could face additional downside pressure.

Technical outlook: weak rebound within a broader downtrend

Recent price action suggests Bitcoin’s rebound from oversold conditions may have been driven more by seller exhaustion than by a meaningful return of buying interest.

The cryptocurrency remains locked in a short-term bearish structure and continues to trade below several key moving averages.

Bitcoin is currently trading below:

* The 50-day exponential moving average at $70,042.

* The 100-day exponential moving average at $72,839.

* The 200-day exponential moving average at $78,174.

Failure to reclaim these levels reinforces the broader bearish trend and highlights persistent selling pressure at higher prices.

In addition, the previously broken ascending support level near $73,833 has now become a major resistance zone.

Technical indicators warrant caution

Technical indicators continue to point toward a cautious outlook.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the four-hour chart remains below the 50 level, indicating that bearish momentum persists without yet reaching deeply oversold territory.

Meanwhile, the MACD histogram remains slightly positive, suggesting recent rebounds may represent corrective moves within a broader downtrend rather than the beginning of a sustained bullish phase.

Key resistance levels

If Bitcoin attempts another recovery, traders are likely to focus on several important resistance levels:

* $64,004, the first key resistance area.

* $70,042, corresponding to the 50-day exponential moving average.

A decisive break above these levels would be required to improve the technical picture and reduce the selling pressure currently dominating the market.