Bitcoin (BTC-USD) is trading at $92,949, up 4.1% over the past 24 hours, extending a sharp rebound from Monday’s low of $84,000. The world’s largest digital asset has recovered roughly 10% this week after falling more than 33% from its all-time highs above $126,000 in October. The latest rebound reflects investor repositioning as expectations grow for a Federal Reserve rate cut, alongside improving regulatory sentiment and continued institutional buying — all of which are helping restore a bullish tone heading into December.

Federal Reserve expectations and the return of liquidity

Macro forces have once again taken the lead in shaping Bitcoin’s trajectory. Traders now assign an 88.8% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the Fed’s December 10 meeting, according to CME FedWatch. The shift came after US import and export price data showed flat monthly inflation and a mild 0.3% annual rise in import prices — the slowest in seven months.

US Treasury yields dropped sharply, with the 10-year falling to 4.06%, while the US Dollar Index retreated to 96.51, its lowest since October. The end of quantitative tightening on December 1 marked a pivotal moment for liquidity-sensitive assets like Bitcoin, following two years of global pressure on risk appetite. Open interest in Bitcoin futures has climbed 12% week-on-week, while spot trading volumes are up 20%, confirming renewed institutional flows ahead of an expected monetary easing cycle.

Regulatory shifts boost institutional confidence

Regulatory developments also supported Bitcoin’s rise. SEC Chairman Paul Atkins announced plans for a new “innovation exemption” aimed at modernizing the digital-asset framework by clarifying rules on issuance, custody, and on-chain trading. If implemented, this would be the most supportive US regulatory environment for crypto since 2021.

The narrative strengthened further as Vanguard — the world’s second-largest asset manager — reversed its long-held stance and will now allow trading of crypto ETFs and digital-asset funds on its platform. This effectively opens access to millions of retail and institutional investors at a moment when liquidity conditions are improving, marking a structural expansion in potential Bitcoin demand.

Corporate risk: Strategy (MSTR) and a potential 2028 stress point

Despite the near-term optimism, concerns are rising around Strategy — the largest publicly traded corporate holder of Bitcoin. A Tiger Research report found that Strategy’s balance sheet can withstand BTC prices as low as $23,000 before liabilities exceed assets, supported by convertible debt and preferred-equity issuances.

However, 2028 presents a significant risk: $6.4 billion in convertible bonds will mature, and call provisions could trigger early repayment. If Bitcoin trades near the insolvency threshold at that time, the company may need to liquidate up to 20%–30% of global daily spot BTC volume, potentially causing systemic market stress. Chairman Michael Saylor has downplayed these risks, arguing that liquidity growth, ETF integration, and increased corporate adoption will offset volatility — but the 2028 scenario remains a notable long-term credit risk tied directly to Bitcoin’s price structure.

Institutional flows, market positioning, and volatility indicators

Data from CoinMarketCap and Glassnode shows that institutional wallets accumulated roughly 16,200 BTC over the past 72 hours, alongside about $59 million in ETF inflows. Vanguard’s policy shift accelerated these flows.

This recovery comes as the CBOE VIX remains near 16.54, signaling broad market calm despite rising trading activity. Meanwhile, the Treasury-bond MOVE index continues to decline, strengthening the relationship between rate-market volatility and digital-asset pricing.

BTC/USD remains highly sensitive to yield movements: traders estimate that each 10-basis-point shift in the US 10-year yield can add or subtract roughly $2,000 from Bitcoin’s price.

Short-term technical outlook and key levels

Technically, Bitcoin faces immediate resistance between $94,000 and $98,000, an area that aligns with prior selling zones and the 200-hour moving average. A breakout above this range could pave the way for a test of the $100,000 psychological barrier — a level that capped the August rally.

On the downside, support appears strong near $88,200, a key on-chain accumulation region. The daily RSI has climbed from oversold territory (34) to 51, indicating a neutral recovery with room for upward continuation. Derivatives markets show perpetual-funding rates at +0.015%, suggesting mild bullish bias without excessive leverage — a constructive environment for sustained gains.

Oil prices held steady on Thursday as markets focused on Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy infrastructure, while stalled peace negotiations dampened expectations for any agreement that might restore Russian crude flows to global markets.

Brent crude rose 24 cents, or 0.4%, to $62.91 a barrel by 10:30 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate gained 33 cents, or 0.6%, to $59.28.

Ukraine targeted the Druzhba pipeline in Russia’s Tambov region, according to a Ukrainian military intelligence source — the fifth attack on the route that supplies crude to Hungary and Slovakia. However, the pipeline operator and Hungarian oil and gas company MOL later confirmed that flows remain uninterrupted.

In a research note, consultancy Kpler said: “Ukraine’s drone campaign against Russian refining infrastructure has entered a more sustainable and strategically coordinated phase.”

The firm added that Russian refining capacity fell to around 5 million barrels per day between September and November, down 335,000 barrels per day from a year earlier, with gasoline output hit hardest alongside a notable decline in diesel production.

Oil prices also found support from fading progress in Ukraine’s peace plan, after envoys for US President Donald Trump emerged from Kremlin talks with no breakthrough to end the war. Trump said it remains unclear what will happen next.

Earlier hopes that the conflict might soon end had weighed on prices, with traders expecting any deal to include lifting sanctions on Russia and restoring its crude flows to a global market already facing oversupply.

Meanwhile, US crude and fuel inventories rose last week as refinery activity increased, according to the Energy Information Administration on Wednesday.

Crude stockpiles climbed by 574,000 barrels to 427.5 million barrels in the week ended Nov. 28, compared with analysts’ expectations in a Reuters poll for an 821,000-barrel draw.

Fitch Ratings on Thursday cut its oil price forecasts for 2025–2027, citing excess supply in the market and production growth expected to outpace demand.

The US dollar held near a five-week low after weak economic data reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next week, offering some support to the yen while pushing the euro to its strongest level in almost seven weeks.

Investors are also watching the growing possibility that White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett could succeed Jerome Powell as Fed chair when Powell’s term ends in May. Hassett is widely expected to favor further rate cuts.

President Donald Trump said this week he will announce his nominee early next year, extending a selection process that has stretched on for months, even though he previously claimed to have already made a decision.

Analysts warned that appointing Hassett could add pressure on the dollar, amid concerns among bond investors that he may push for aggressive rate cuts aligned with Trump’s preferences, according to the Financial Times.

Data from LSEG shows that traders are pricing in an 85% probability of a quarter-point rate cut next week.

Commerzbank currency strategists Thu Lan Nguyen and Antje Praefcke wrote: “A Fed rate cut next week is already priced in. What will matter for the dollar is whether there are new signals about the future policy path in the meetings that follow.”

The dollar index, which measures the US currency against six major peers, steadied at 98.94 after nine straight days of declines. It remained near a five-week low and is still down about 9% since the start of the year.

A Reuters poll showed a sizable minority of FX strategists expect the dollar to strengthen next year, though most still anticipate weakness in 2026 as rate-cut expectations build.

Thomas Mathews, head of Asia-Pacific markets at Capital Economics, said that given the strength of the US economy, markets may be overestimating how far the Fed will cut rates in the medium term—regardless of next week’s decision. “That could limit the dollar’s downside,” he added.

The euro slipped less than 0.1% to $1.1657 but remained close to the seven-week high touched in the previous session, supported by data showing the fastest expansion in eurozone business activity in 30 months during November.

The currency is up more than 12% this year, on track for its strongest annual gain since 2017, helped by dollar weakness driven earlier by trade tensions and more recently by rising expectations of a Fed rate cut.

The European Central Bank is set to meet in two weeks and is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged, while markets price only a 25% chance of another cut next year.

The yen held steady at 155.22 per dollar, having recovered slightly from last month’s ten-month low, amid renewed speculation over possible Japanese intervention. Three government sources familiar with internal discussions told Reuters the Bank of Japan may raise rates in December, though the outlook beyond that remains unclear.

Chidu Narayanan, head of Asia-Pacific macro strategy at Wells Fargo, said: “Persistent caution from the Bank of Japan, the attractive carry on long-dollar/short-yen positions, and ongoing pressure on Japanese government bond yields from potential fiscal expansion—all of these could keep the yen under weakness.”

Sterling traded at $1.3337, near its highest level since 28 October. The Swedish krona weakened against both the euro and the dollar after annual inflation slowed in November.

The Chinese yuan dipped slightly but remained close to a 14-month high, after the central bank set its reference rate weaker than expected for the sixth consecutive session—a signal of caution over rapid currency appreciation.

Despite trade tensions, slow growth, low interest rates, and declining foreign investment, the yuan is on track for its best annual performance since the pandemic year of 2020.

Gold prices rose in European trading on Thursday, resuming gains after a two-day pause and moving back toward a six-week high. The metal is drawing support from the ongoing decline in the US dollar, which remains under pressure as expectations grow for an interest-rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week.

To reassess those expectations, investors are awaiting more key US economic data, particularly Friday’s release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures report.

Price Overview

• Gold prices today: Gold rose 0.35% to $4,216.90, up from the opening level of $4,202.58, after touching an intraday low of $4,175.06.

• At Tuesday’s settlement, gold fell 0.1%, marking a second straight daily loss amid continued profit-taking from the six-week high of $4,264.60 per ounce.

US Dollar

The US Dollar Index fell 0.1% on Thursday, extending its decline for a ninth consecutive session and hitting a five-week low of 98.80 points, reflecting persistent weakness in the currency against a basket of major currencies.

The latest drop follows weak economic data and cautious comments from Federal Reserve officials, both of which have boosted expectations of a December rate cut.

US Interest Rates

• US private-sector payrolls recorded their largest monthly decline in more than two and a half years in November.

• After the data, CME’s FedWatch tool showed the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in December rising from 87% to 89%, while the likelihood of no change fell from 13% to 11%.

• Investors are monitoring incoming data closely ahead of next week’s decision, with weekly jobless claims scheduled for release today and the PCE report due on Friday.

Gold Outlook

Sonia Komari, commodities strategist at ANZ, said that with investors cautious ahead of the FOMC meeting, the market largely expects a 25-basis-point rate cut. “What the market needs now is a fresh catalyst for another leg higher in gold,” she noted.

Komari added that profit-taking remains present, and any pullback toward $4,000 is likely to attract renewed buying, given the strong underlying support for the precious metal.

SPDR Gold Trust

Holdings at SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed ETF, fell by 1.72 metric tons on Wednesday, marking a second consecutive daily decline and bringing total holdings down to 1,046.58 metric tons.