Bitcoin rose during Tuesday’s trading, recovering a small part of its recent losses, supported by growing bets that the US Federal Reserve is on the verge of cutting interest rates. However, mounting doubts over the effectiveness of institutional treasury holdings of the cryptocurrency limited gains and kept traders cautious.

Cryptocurrencies in general posted some gains after sharp losses earlier in September, but they lagged behind the rally seen in stocks and gold. The crypto market appeared not to have benefited much from the improvement in risk appetite, even as market bets increased on a rate cut at the Fed’s September meeting.

Bitcoin rose 0.8% to $111,812.8 by 00:51 ET (04:51 GMT), after briefly touching the $112,000 level.

Bitcoin Falters Amid Slumping Crypto Stocks

In recent weeks, markets have faced growing doubts over the long-term returns of corporate Bitcoin-buying strategies, particularly after the currency’s steep drop from record levels in mid-August.

Market reaction was muted to new Bitcoin purchases from leading institutional holders such as Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy, Nasdaq: MSTR) and Metaplanet Inc (Tokyo: 3350). Shares of both companies declined in recent sessions, leading a broader wave of losses in crypto-related stocks.

This strategy, which Strategy had successfully pursued over the past two years, has left corporate stocks more vulnerable to Bitcoin price volatility. Critics have raised questions over the long-term viability of this approach, since it depends entirely on the currency’s appreciation and could be negatively affected by more companies adopting the same model.

It is worth noting that both retail and institutional investors seeking Bitcoin exposure through equities can now simply purchase spot ETFs, which were launched in US markets last year.

Pressure on Circle and Challenges from New Rivals

Shares of Circle Internet Group Inc (NYSE: CRCL) fell to their lowest level in nearly three months on Monday, after Compass Point Research cut its price target on the stock and maintained a sell recommendation.

This came as the company faces growing competition following the announcement by decentralized trading platform Hyperliquid that it will launch its own stablecoin, USDH, to rival USDC.

Hyperliquid holds about $5.4 billion in USDC deposits, which are now expected to be converted into USDH, representing around 8% of the total USDC supply.

Oil prices extended gains on Tuesday, supported by the OPEC+ alliance’s decision to raise production by less than expected, alongside expectations that China will continue stockpiling crude and concerns about possible new sanctions on Russia.

Eight members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies agreed on Sunday to increase their output starting in October by 137,000 barrels per day, far below the increases of about 550,000 barrels per day in September and August.

Brent crude rose 47 cents, or 0.7%, to $66.49 a barrel by 09:10 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate crude climbed 72 cents, or 1.2%, to $62.98 a barrel.

Ole Hansen of Saxo Bank said: “Prices are consolidating amid speculation that production will not rise by as much as allowed by the eight members, in addition to the fact that China, according to data, has been buying about 0.5 million barrels per day for storage.”

The chief strategist at Gunvor commodities trading noted on Monday that China is likely to continue stockpiling at roughly the same pace in 2026, helping absorb the surplus in global output.

Crude also found support from declining spare capacity within OPEC+, according to Giovanni Staunovo of UBS, who explained that the reduction in the alliance’s reserve capacity limits its ability to respond to sudden supply shocks, which typically supports prices.

He added: “Market awareness that OPEC+ output increases for October may not exceed 60,000 to 70,000 barrels per day is a key factor, along with the fact that the alliance’s spare capacity is much smaller than previously thought.”

Speculation over further sanctions on Russia, following its most intense airstrike on Ukraine that set fire to a government building in Kyiv, also bolstered prices. US President Donald Trump said he is prepared to move toward a second phase of sanctions.

Any additional sanctions on Russia would reduce its oil supplies in global markets, which could push prices higher.

In addition, investors are awaiting next week’s US Federal Reserve meeting, amid expectations of an interest rate cut. Lower rates reduce consumer borrowing costs, which could boost economic growth and increase oil demand.

The US dollar fell on Tuesday to near its lowest level in seven weeks, as investors awaited revisions to US data that may reveal the labor market is in worse shape than previously thought, boosting expectations that the Federal Reserve will move toward a larger interest rate cut.

The dollar fell 0.2% against the Japanese yen to 147.21 yen, while the British pound rose 0.1% to $1.3558. The euro retreated to $1.1752 after touching its strongest level since July 24.

Against a basket of major currencies, the dollar index dropped to 97.25, its lowest level since late July, ahead of the preliminary revisions to jobs data covering the period from April 2024 to March 2025.

Economists expect downward revisions of up to 800,000 jobs, which could suggest the Fed is lagging in achieving its “full employment” objective.

Market expectations have gradually increased regarding the Fed moving toward a bolder easing policy. Traders have fully priced in a 25-basis-point cut, while the probability of a larger 50-basis-point cut has risen to about 12%, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

Kenneth Brooks, Head of Corporate Research in FX and Rates at Société Générale, said: “Current market pricing reflects significant doubts about whether the Fed will actually deliver a 50-basis-point cut, but if the revisions are highly meaningful, they could provide justification for a bigger move.”

In a related context, the Wall Street Journal, citing unnamed sources, reported that advisers to President Donald Trump’s administration are preparing a report on what they consider deficiencies in the performance of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, which may be published in the coming weeks.

The growing expectations of US monetary easing also contributed to pushing spot gold prices to a record high of $3,659.10 per ounce on Tuesday.

Among other currencies, the Norwegian krone rose about 0.2% against both the dollar and the euro, after the minority Labour Party government secured a second term on Monday.

Political developments, from Tokyo to Buenos Aires, remain in investors’ focus after the resignation of Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, the ouster of French Prime Minister François Bayrou, and the surprise dismissal of Indonesia’s finance minister in recent days.

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst at MUFG, said in a note: “Although political uncertainty is an unfavorable development, we believe it is not sufficient on its own to weaken the euro.”

The European Central Bank is scheduled to hold its monetary policy meeting on Thursday, with widespread expectations of leaving interest rates unchanged.

Economists were divided last month over the likelihood of further cuts by the bank, but the latest data showing inflation near the 2% target and unemployment at historic lows has shifted expectations.

In Indonesia, the rupiah fell 0.8% after the government dismissed its finance minister on Monday. Traders said Bank Indonesia intervened on Tuesday by buying long-term government bonds in an attempt to stabilize the market.

Gold prices rose in the European market on Tuesday, extending gains for the third consecutive day and continuing to break record highs, approaching the $3,700 per ounce barrier for the first time in history, supported by the current decline in US dollar levels.

A series of weak data on the US labor market has increased expectations that the Federal Reserve will deliver deeper interest rate cuts. To reprice those expectations, investors are awaiting the release of key US inflation data this week.

Price Overview

• Gold prices today: Gold rose by 0.65% to ($3,659.41), the highest level ever, from the opening price of ($3,636.47), recording the lowest level at ($3,628.44).

• At Monday’s settlement, gold prices rose by 1.4%, marking the second consecutive daily gain, after surpassing the $3,600 per ounce barrier for the first time in history.

US Dollar

The dollar index fell on Tuesday by about 0.1%, deepening losses for the third consecutive session, recording the lowest level in seven weeks at 97.26 points, reflecting the continued decline of the US currency against a basket of major and minor counterparts.

This decline comes amid ongoing selling of the US dollar, especially after recent US data showed further deterioration in the labor market, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve will deliver deeper interest rate cuts.

US Interest Rates

• According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of a 25-basis-point US interest rate cut at the September meeting is currently priced at 100%, with a 12% chance of a 50-basis-point cut.

• The probability of a 25-basis-point cut at the October meeting is also currently priced at 100%, with a 10% chance of a 50-basis-point cut.

• To reaffirm the above pricing, investors are awaiting the release of key US inflation data for August this week, ahead of next week’s Federal Reserve meeting.

Gold Performance Outlook

• Han Tan, Chief Market Analyst at Nymo Money, said: Market optimists have drawn momentum from conviction about interest rate cuts, which pushed gold to new record highs.

• Tan added: The weakness of the dollar has also paved the way for trading above $3,600, while bullion-backed flows and central bank purchases reinforce a strong mix of supportive factors.

• Tan explained: We may see spot gold approach $3,700 this week if markets witness sharply downward revisions to US jobs data and shockingly low CPI data.

• Tan said: Gold markets are likely to reserve their biggest reaction for prices until the latest policy signals emerge from next week’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

SPDR Fund

Gold holdings at SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, fell on Monday by about 2.29 metric tons, bringing the total down to 979.68 metric tons, the lowest since August 29.