Bitcoin edged slightly higher on Tuesday, but remained stuck in a narrow range below the $90,000 level, trading near one-month lows, as investors stayed cautious ahead of the US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting, with limited appetite for high-risk assets.

The world’s largest cryptocurrency was trading up 0.4% at $88,296.5 as of 01:33 a.m. US Eastern Time (06:33 GMT).

Bitcoin has struggled to regain momentum after suffering sharp losses last week, and is up only about 1% since the start of 2026, underperforming other assets despite the recent weakness in the US dollar.

Bitcoin struggles ahead of the Fed decision

Bitcoin has failed to benefit from macroeconomic conditions that have traditionally been supportive for digital assets.

This weak price performance comes as gold and silver continue to hit successive record highs, reflecting strong demand for safe-haven assets amid heightened geopolitical uncertainty and concerns over global economic growth.

Market focus has now shifted to the US Federal Reserve’s two-day policy meeting, which begins later on Tuesday. Policymakers are widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged when the meeting concludes on Wednesday.

While a pause is already fully priced in, traders are closely watching the Fed’s statement and Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference for signals on the timing of any potential rate cuts and the central bank’s outlook on inflation.

Any shift in Powell’s tone could influence overall risk appetite and liquidity conditions, both of which are key drivers for cryptocurrency markets.

Markets are also watching for potential announcements regarding US President Donald Trump’s nomination of a new Federal Reserve chair, a move that could shape future monetary policy direction and longer-term expectations.

Japan could see its first crypto ETFs by 2028

Japan’s Nikkei newspaper reported on Monday that the country’s first exchange-traded funds (ETFs) investing in cryptocurrencies could be listed as early as 2028, potentially making it easier for retail investors to gain exposure to Bitcoin and other digital assets.

According to the report, Japan’s Financial Services Agency plans to add cryptocurrencies to the list of assets eligible for ETF products, while strengthening investor protection measures.

It added that firms such as Nomura Holdings and SBI Holdings are among the candidates to launch such products, subject to approval by the Tokyo Stock Exchange.

Cryptocurrency prices today: altcoins post modest gains in range-bound trade

Most major altcoins also recorded modest gains, but continued to trade within tight ranges.

Ethereum, the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency, rose 1.5% to $2,935.92.

XRP, the third-largest cryptocurrency, climbed 1.1% to $1.90.

Oil prices were largely steady on Tuesday, as a major winter storm disrupted crude output and affected refineries along the US Gulf Coast, while the upward pressure from supply outages was offset by the resumption of flows from Kazakhstan.

Brent crude futures fell by 6 cents, or 0.1%, to $65.53 a barrel by 11:46 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate crude slipped by 1 cent, or nearly flat, to $60.62 a barrel.

The United States suffered production losses as a severe winter storm swept across large parts of the country, placing heavy strain on energy infrastructure and power grids.

Analysts and traders estimated that US oil producers lost up to 2 million barrels per day, roughly 15% of total national output, over the weekend.

At the same time, several refineries along the US Gulf Coast reported weather-related disruptions, which ANZ analyst Daniel Hynes said raised concerns about fuel supply interruptions.

Cold weather may drive inventory drawdowns

Tamas Varga, oil analyst at brokerage PVM, said: “Cold weather in the United States is likely to lead to significant declines in oil inventories over the coming weeks, especially if these conditions persist.” He added that this could support prices in the near term.

However, gains in oil prices were capped by developments in Kazakhstan, which is preparing to restart production at its largest oil fields, according to the country’s energy ministry. Industry sources said output levels remain subdued.

The Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), which operates Kazakhstan’s main export route, also announced that it had restored full loading capacity at its terminal on Russia’s Black Sea coast, following the completion of maintenance work at one of its three mooring points.

Varga noted that some traders are also likely to take profits in the heating oil market, which has surged in recent days due to the cold weather in the United States.

Supply risks persist amid Middle East tensions

On the geopolitical front, two US officials told Reuters on Monday that a US aircraft carrier and accompanying warships have arrived in the Middle East, expanding President Donald Trump’s ability to defend US forces or carry out potential military action against Iran.

“Mideast supply risks have not disappeared,” ANZ’s Daniel Hynes said. “Tensions remain elevated after President Trump deployed naval assets to the region.”

On the supply side, the OPEC+ alliance is expected to maintain its pause on oil output increases for March at a meeting scheduled for February 1, according to three OPEC+ delegates cited by Reuters.

The US dollar edged slightly higher on Tuesday but struggled to gain strong momentum, as traders remained on alert for the possibility of coordinated intervention in currency markets by US and Japanese authorities, while awaiting the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision on Wednesday.

Much of the recent focus in foreign exchange markets has been on the Japanese yen, which has risen by as much as 3% over the past two sessions amid talk that the United States and Japan have been conducting so-called “rate checks” — a practice often seen as a precursor to official market intervention.

That helped stabilize the yen in a range of 153 to 154 per dollar, well away from the near-34-year low of 159.23 hit on Friday. In latest trading, the yen stood at 154.75 per dollar, with the dollar up about 0.4% against the Japanese currency.

Parisha Saimbi, Asia emerging markets and local markets FX strategist at BNP Paribas, said: “The fact that the signals are coming from the US suggests, or adds risk to the market, that there may be multiple parties willing to intervene, which is different from what we have seen in the past.”

She added: “And that, in my view, explains why the moves have not been limited to dollar/yen alone, but instead we have seen broader dollar movement.”

While there has been no official confirmation from Japanese or US authorities that rate checks have taken place, a source familiar with the matter told Reuters that the New York Federal Reserve asked dealers about dollar/yen rates on Friday.

In the same context, senior Japanese officials said on Monday that they are in close coordination with the United States on foreign exchange markets.

The possibility of intervention has discouraged investors from pushing the yen significantly weaker, despite concerns over Japan’s public finances. Analysts also noted that the bar for coordinated intervention remains high.

Money market data from the Bank of Japan showed that Friday’s sharp rise in the yen against the dollar was unlikely to have been driven by direct Japanese intervention.

Dollar remains under pressure

The dollar continues to face heavy pressure from a combination of factors, including Washington’s preference for a weaker currency and uncertainty surrounding the policies of US President Donald Trump.

Nick Rees, head of macro research at Monex, said these factors could re-emerge on Wednesday following the Fed’s interest rate decision. He said: “We have a Federal Reserve meeting tomorrow, and we think the market will remain extremely cautious ahead of this event. The biggest risk, in our view, is not the rate decision itself. We are fairly confident the Fed will keep rates unchanged. But Trump will not be happy with that.”

Rees added that Trump could soon announce his nominee to succeed Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell after the rate decision, particularly if the president does not support the central bank’s stance.

“We think that would introduce a great deal of volatility into the dollar,” he said.

Criminal investigations being pursued by the Trump administration into Jerome Powell, as well as an advanced attempt to remove Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, are also among the issues being closely watched during the two-day policy meeting that begins on Tuesday.

The dollar rose for the first time in four days against a basket of currencies, gaining 0.2% to 97.27. Even so, it remains down about 1% since the start of the year and had touched a four-month low of 96.808 on Monday.

Meanwhile, the euro slipped 0.2% to $1.1855, not far from the four-month peak of $1.19075 reached on Monday. Sterling fell 0.07% to $1.3668 but stayed close to a four-month high of $1.37125 seen in the previous session.

The Australian dollar edged slightly lower but continued to trade near a 16-month high of $0.6941, which it reached on Monday.

Gold prices rose in European trading on Tuesday, extending gains for a seventh consecutive session and hovering near record highs, as strong demand for the metal as a safe haven persisted amid President Donald Trump’s continued threats to impose higher tariffs on several major economies.

Those gains were capped by a rebound in the US dollar, ahead of the start of the first monetary policy meeting of the Federal Reserve this year, which is widely expected to result in no change to US interest rates.

Price Overview

• Gold prices today: Gold rose by 1.8% to $5,100.84, from an opening level of $5,010.50, while the session low stood at $5,010.50.

• At settlement on Monday, the precious metal gained around 0.5%, marking a sixth straight daily advance and recording a fresh all-time high at $5,111.01 per ounce, after breaching the psychological $5,000-per-ounce threshold for the first time in history.

Trump’s tariff threats

On Monday, Donald Trump announced plans to raise tariffs to 25% on car, timber, and pharmaceutical imports from South Korea, sharply criticizing Seoul over its failure to reach a trade agreement with Washington.

This escalation followed an earlier threat to impose tariffs on Canada, particularly after Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney visited China earlier this month, although relations between the two countries have improved noticeably in recent weeks.

US dollar

The US dollar index rose by 0.25% on Tuesday, beginning to recover from a four-month low at 96.81 points, and is on track for its first gain in four sessions, reflecting a rebound in the US currency against a basket of global currencies.

Beyond bargain buying at low levels, the dollar’s recovery comes ahead of the start of the Federal Reserve’s first monetary policy meeting of the year.

Federal Reserve

The Federal Reserve’s policy meeting begins later today, with decisions due on Wednesday. Expectations remain firmly anchored around keeping interest rates unchanged at 3.75%, the lowest level in three years.

Carol Kong, currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, said markets are likely to focus more on questions surrounding the independence of the Federal Reserve rather than on interest rate expectations.

She added that if Chair Jerome Powell were to step down as a governor after his term as Fed chair ends in May, it could reinforce the perception that he is yielding to political pressure, potentially intensifying concerns over the Fed’s independence, which would pose a risk to the dollar.

US interest rates

• According to the CME FedWatch Tool, market pricing shows a 97% probability that US interest rates will remain unchanged at the January 2026 meeting, while the probability of a 25-basis-point cut stands at 3%.

• Investors are currently pricing in two US rate cuts over the course of the coming year, while the Federal Reserve’s own projections point to a single 25-basis-point cut.

Gold outlook

Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade, said Trump’s disruptive policy approach this year has been supportive of precious metals as safe havens. He noted that threats of higher tariffs on South Korea and Canada are sufficient to keep gold well bid as a defensive asset.

Waterer added that intervention by US and Japanese officials to calm the yen weighed on the dollar, providing a strong boost to gold prices. He also pointed out that further pressure on the dollar from the prospect of a US government shutdown and Trump’s erratic policies has lowered the dollar-denominated gold price for overseas buyers.

SPDR holdings

Gold holdings at SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, were unchanged on Monday, keeping total holdings at 1,086.53 metric tons, the highest level since May 3, 2022.