Bitcoin rose on Thursday for the first time in three days as US 10-year treasury yields gave up ground. 

Traders now await important US consumer spending data for April, in order to gather more clues on the future of US monetary policies.

Fresh monetary influx into US bitcoin exchange funds has also helped underpin prices, with the Blackrock fund becoming the world’s largest bitcoin fund. 

The Price

Bitcoin rose 1.15% at Bitstamp today to $68,337, with a session-low at $67,105.

Bitcoin lost 1.1% on Wednesday, the second loss in a row amid growing risk aversion. 

Crypto Market Value 

The cryptocurrency market value rose by over $20 billion on Thursday to a total of $2.686 trillion as both bitcoin and ethereum rebounded.

US Yields

US 10-year treasury yields fell by 0.6% today away from a four-week high at 4.638%, on track for the first loss in three sessions.

The decline comes ahead of a batch of US data and speeches by Fed officials. 

US Rates

The odds of a Fed 0.25% interest rate cut in September stand at 49%, and the odds of such a cut in November stand at 62%.

According to the Fedwatch tool, investors are barely expecting a single Fed interest rate cut this year. 

Bitcoin Exchange Funds

Since May 13, bitcoin exchange funds have received a constant positive stream of cash as institutional investors grow more interested. 

The famous Blackrock fund has become the world’s largest bitcoin exchange fund, with bitcoin assets amounting to $19.48 billion. 

Dollar fell in European trade on Thursday against a basket of major rivals away from two-week highs on active profit-taking, while US treasury yields tapered off. 

The decline came ahead of crucial US GDP growth data for the first quarter of the year, in addition to unemployment claims data, which will offer fresh clues on the likely path ahead for US monetary policies.

The Index

The dollar index fell 0.2% today to 104.90, with the highest since May 14 at 105.18. 

The index closed Wednesday 0.5% higher, the second profit in a row, and the largest daily profit since April 30 as US treasury yields spiked. 

US Yields 

US 10-year treasury yields fell by 0.6% today away from a four-week high at 4.638%, on track for the first loss in three sessions.

The decline comes ahead of a batch of US data and speeches by Fed officials. 

US Rates

The odds of a Fed 0.25% interest rate cut in September stand at 49%, and the odds of such a cut in November stand at 62%.

According to the Fedwatch tool, investors are barely expecting a single Fed interest rate cut this year. 

US Growth Data

Now investors await important US data, including GDP growth data, which is expected to clock in at 1.2% for the first quarter. 

US unemployment claims data are expected up to 218 thousand last week from 215 thousand in the previous week. 

Euro fell in European trade on Thursday against a basket of major rivals, heading for the second loss in a row against the dollar and plumbing two-week lows after giving up the psychological level of $1.08 amid concerns about the interest rate gap between Europe and the US. 

Markets are expecting multiple European rate cuts this year after data showed German inflation slowed down more than expected. 

On the other hand, the odds that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in the summer have heavily declined. 

Prices 

EUR/USD fell 0.1% to $1.0788, the lowest since May 14, with a session-high at $1.0805. 

The EUR/USD pair fell 0.55% on Wednesday, the heftiest loss since April 22 following German inflation data.

German Inflation 

German consumer prices rose 0.1% m/m in May, below estimates of 0.2%, and compared to a 0.5% rise in May.

The data likely hints at weak overall Eurozone inflation data for May. 

European Rates

The inflation data boosted the odds of multiple European Central Bank interest rate cuts this year, with investors now awaiting even more data this month to gauge the likely path ahead. 

US Rates 

A string of bullish US data and aggressive remarks by Fed officials reduced the odds of a Fed interest rate cut in November. 

Now investors await important US GDP growth data later today in addition to unemployment claims data, and personal spending data tomorrow.

Interest Rate Gap 

The current Eurozone-US interest rate gap stands at 100 basis points, the lowest since 2022, and will likely expand to 125 basis points in June in favor of the US.

Yen rose in Asian trade on Thursday against a basket of major rivals, on track for the first profit in three sessions against the US dollar amid attempts to move away from four-week lows.

The gains came as Japanese 10-year treasury yields spike to 13-year highs, underpinning the yen.

The Price 

The USD/JPY pair fell 0.25% to 157.26, with a session-high tt 157.67. 

The yen lost 0.3% against the dollar on Wednesday, plumbing a four-week low at 157.71 yen per dollar. 

Japanese Yields 

Japan’s 10-year treasury yields rose by 1.85% on Thursday to a 13-year peak at 1.104%, underpinning the yen.

Such developments came amid expectations the Bank of Japan will cut down its purchases of government bonds at its June meeting. 

US Yields 

US 10-year treasury yields continued to trade near four-week high at 4.638% ahead of more important clues on the path ahead for US monetary policies.

Later today, crucial US GDP growth data and unemployment claims data will be released. 

The Yield Gap

The 10-year government bond yield gap between the US and Japan is stabilizing around 340-350 basis points in favor of the US, the lowest such gap since 2020. 

Moves by Japanese Authorities 

It’s clear that Japanese policymakers are focusing further on structural changes to the economy to underpin the yen in the forex market, as simple direction interventions have limited impact. 

It’s likely that Japanese data scheduled for release on Friday will show Japan has spent nearly 9 trillion yen in the past few weeks to slow down the decline of the yen, which plumbed a 34-year nadir against the dollar at 160.