Bitcoin (BTC-USD) posted a mild rebound on Thursday, trading near 92,000 dollars as stronger-than-expected earnings from Nvidia (NVDA) helped lift risk assets and pushed cryptocurrency-mining stocks higher. The move comes after a volatile week marked by record outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs and a brief drop below the key 90,000-dollar level.

Nvidia’s upbeat results, released late Wednesday, temporarily eased concerns about a potential slowdown in the AI sector. The company reported third-quarter revenue of 57.01 billion dollars, up 62% year-on-year, and issued strong guidance for the fourth quarter.

CEO Jensen Huang said demand for AI chips continues to exceed supply, noting that “Blackwell sales are off the charts and cloud GPUs are fully sold out,” with computing needs accelerating across both AI training and inference.

The optimism triggered broad pre-market gains, particularly among Bitcoin-mining companies reliant on high-performance GPUs. Cipher Mining (CIFR) rose 11%, IREN (IREN) gained 8%, and Hut 8 (HUT) advanced about 6%.

The momentum helped stabilize Bitcoin after a sharp mid-week decline driven by heavy redemptions across spot ETFs. BlackRock’s (BLK) IBIT — the world’s largest spot Bitcoin ETF — saw 523 million dollars in outflows on Wednesday, its largest single-day withdrawal since launching in January 2024, according to Farside data. The selling pushed Bitcoin to a local low near 88,400 dollars, erasing all its year-to-date gains.

Rising political pressure between Trump and the Fed intensifies monetary policy bets

The price swings come amid heightened political and monetary uncertainty in the United States. President Donald Trump escalated his criticism of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Wednesday for not cutting rates more aggressively, saying, “Frankly, I’d like to fire him.”

Reports indicate that Trump is seeking to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook and appoint his economic adviser, Stephen Miran, to the FOMC — a move that could give his administration a “super-majority” aligned with more forceful interest-rate cuts.

Analysts at Bitfinex warned that if Trump succeeds in reshaping the Fed in 2026, the central bank’s independence could be at risk, prompting markets to reprice the dollar’s status as a global reserve currency and the cost of long-term borrowing.

“From historical precedent to current tactics, Trump’s approach targets direct influence over rate-setting decisions,” analysts wrote. “The outcome would not be temporary volatility but a structural discount to institutional credibility. If the Fed is forced into aggressive easing before inflation is fully contained, the US economy risks entering an ‘early-recovery-followed-by-stagflation’ cycle. For global capital, the real danger lies in losing the last line of defense protecting US monetary policy.”

Oil prices rose on Thursday after a sharp decline in the previous session, supported by a larger-than-expected drop in US crude inventories and a broad rebound across risk assets.

Brent futures climbed 57 cents, or 0.9%, to 64.08 dollars a barrel by 11:01 GMT, while West Texas Intermediate gained 51 cents, or 0.9%, to 59.95 dollars.

The benchmarks recovered after falling nearly 2% in the prior session, following reports that the United States is renewing efforts to secure a framework to end the Russia–Ukraine war, a move that could bring more Russian barrels back into the market.

Global equity markets — which often move in tandem with oil — advanced on Thursday as investor sentiment improved after Nvidia delivered earnings that exceeded expectations.

Meanwhile, the deadline for US sanctions on dealings with Russia’s oil giants Rosneft and Lukoil expires on Friday, while Lukoil and any potential buyers of its extensive international portfolio have until 13 December to complete transactions.

On the demand side, oil prices drew support from a far larger-than-expected drop in US crude inventories, reflecting higher refinery runs amid strong margins and rising demand for US crude exports.

The Energy Information Administration reported that crude stocks fell by 3.4 million barrels to 424.2 million in the week ending 14 November, compared with analyst expectations for a 603,000-barrel decline.

However, US gasoline and distillate inventories rose for the first time in more than a month, signalling a slowdown in consumption.

Gains were capped by ongoing concerns about an oversupplied oil market and by the US dollar remaining near a six-month high, making dollar-priced commodities like oil more expensive for foreign buyers.

The dollar held on to its gains on Thursday after Federal Reserve minutes showed that a December rate cut is becoming less likely, while its strong rise against the yen prompted traders to question whether Japanese authorities might step in to halt their currency’s decline. The dollar climbed to 157.78 yen in late Asian trading, its highest level since January. The yen’s latest slide began after Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said there had been no specific discussion on foreign-exchange markets during her meeting with Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda.

The yen managed to find some stability as European trading began, with the dollar up 0.1% at 157.36 yen, though the Japanese currency remains down about 6% since Prime Minister Sana Takayishi became leader of the ruling party last month. The decline has come despite rising Japanese bond yields, as investors worry about the scale of borrowing needed to finance Takayishi’s stimulus plans. Vishnu Varathan, head of economics and strategy at Mizuho in Asia, said investors must either believe in a “sell-Japan narrative” or accept that traditional relationships between economic variables have become unstable — referring to the yen’s weakness despite narrowing interest-rate differentials between the US and Japan.

After falling below 157 per dollar and approaching levels last seen at the start of the year, traders estimate that Japanese authorities may intervene near 160, or if additional sharp moves occur. Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara said on Thursday that recent movements had been “sharp, one-sided, and concerning.”

Fed minutes signal a December rate cut is unlikely

Globally, the euro, Swiss franc, Australian dollar and British pound fell against the dollar after the Federal Reserve’s October minutes showed that “many” participants already ruled out a December rate cut, while “several” still viewed a cut as likely. Bank of Singapore strategist Mo Seong Sim noted that in Fed language, “many” implies more than “several,” delivering a hawkish message supportive of the dollar.

In the United States, expectations for a December rate cut dropped to below 25%, after being nearly fully priced in just a month ago. The euro slipped 0.2% to 1.1515 dollars, its lowest in two weeks, while sterling steadied at 1.3060 dollars but remained near its lowest level since early November.

As a result, the dollar index — which measures the US currency against a basket of major peers — rose to 100.26, nearing the six-month high it reached in early November. The index had gained 0.5% on Wednesday after the release of the Fed minutes. The next key data point for the Fed — and therefore for the dollar — will be September’s nonfarm payrolls report, due at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time (13:30 GMT), after its delay due to the government shutdown. Given the age of the data, the central question is whether the figures will be surprising enough to overshadow their staleness.

The Swiss franc also fell to a ten-day low of 0.8072 against the dollar, pressured both by dollar strength and strong Nvidia earnings, which boosted risk appetite and pulled investors away from the safe-haven currency.

Gold prices fell in the European market on Thursday for the first time in three sessions, moving into negative territory under pressure from a stronger US dollar against a basket of major currencies.

The minutes of the Federal Reserve’s latest policy meeting reduced expectations for a rate cut in December, and investors are now awaiting the US jobs report for September, due later today, to reassess those probabilities.

Price Overview

• Gold prices today: spot gold fell by roughly 1.0% to 4,038.94 dollars, down from the opening level of 4,078.80 dollars, after recording a session high of 4,110.17 dollars.

• At Wednesday’s settlement, gold gained 0.3%, marking a second consecutive daily rise as it continued to recover from a two-week low of 3,998.04 dollars per ounce.

The US Dollar

The US dollar index rose 0.2% on Thursday, extending gains for a fifth straight session and hitting a two-week high at 100.32 points, reflecting continued strength in the US currency against a basket of global counterparts.

The rise comes as investors focus on buying the dollar as the most attractive asset at the moment, amid mounting doubts about the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, especially after a series of hawkish remarks from policymakers.

Federal Reserve

Minutes from the FOMC meeting held on October 28–29, released Wednesday in Washington, showed that “many” policymakers opposed cutting the Fed’s benchmark rate during that meeting.

The minutes also indicated that many participants believed the target range would likely remain unchanged through the end of the year based on their economic assessments.

However, some members noted that an additional cut in December “could indeed be appropriate” if the economy performs roughly in line with their expectations before the next meeting.

US Rates

• According to CME’s FedWatch tool, probabilities for a 25-basis-point rate cut in December fell from 48% to 30%, while odds of no change rose from 52% to 70%.

• Investors now await new US jobs data for September — delayed for more than 48 hours due to the longest government shutdown on record — to reassess rate expectations.

Gold Outlook

Kelvin Wong, market analyst for Asia-Pacific at OANDA, said gold is currently falling mainly because expectations of a US rate cut have declined sharply over the past two weeks.

Wong added that, in the short term, this will keep gold below 4,100 dollars. He sees resistance at 4,155 dollars, with the metal potentially trading near 4,000–3,980 dollars.

SPDR Fund

Holdings of the SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed ETF, rose by 2.29 metric tons on Wednesday to 1,043.72 tons — the highest level in nearly a week.