Bitcoin (BTC) posted a modest recovery during Thursday's trading, climbing back above the $63,000 mark after failing to break through the key resistance area near $64,000 earlier this week.

Mixed flows into spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) since the beginning of the week reflect continued caution among institutional investors, while renewed tensions between the United States and Iran have weighed on risk appetite, limiting the upside for the world's largest cryptocurrency.

Geopolitical tensions and rate hike expectations cap gains

Relations between Washington and Tehran escalated again this week after US forces launched a fresh wave of strikes against Iran in response to attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran retaliated by targeting US military facilities and assets in Bahrain and Kuwait, while US President Donald Trump declared on Wednesday that the ceasefire agreement with Iran was "over."

At the same time, minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee's June 16-17 meeting, released on Wednesday, revealed divisions among Federal Reserve officials over the future path of interest rates.

The minutes showed growing concern over inflation, while worries about the labor market eased slightly.

Following the release, derivatives markets raised the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike at the July meeting to more than 27%, up from less than 20% last Thursday, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool.

Those developments, combined with rising geopolitical risks, dampened investor appetite for risk, leaving Bitcoin unable to establish a foothold above the key $64,000 resistance level.

Institutional demand remains cautious despite modest positive signals

As noted in a previous report, institutional demand improved modestly during the first two trading sessions of the week after several weeks of net outflows.

However, data from SoSoValue showed that spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of $84.86 million on Wednesday, highlighting continued caution among institutional investors amid escalating geopolitical tensions.

Analysts warn that if the outflow trend resumes and accelerates, Bitcoin could face another wave of price correction.

On the other hand, CryptoQuant's weekly report, released on Wednesday, pointed to several modestly positive signals.

According to the report, Bitcoin's performance in July could benefit from a recovery in overall demand, which has returned to levels close to neutral after experiencing its sharpest contraction since 2022.

The data showed that the 30-day change in total demand, including both the spot and perpetual futures markets, fell to around negative 650,000 BTC in early June, its weakest reading since 2022, as Bitcoin dropped to around $58,000.

Since then, demand has gradually recovered toward neutral levels, with speculative demand in the futures market turning slightly positive, while the contraction in spot market demand has slowed to its weakest pace since mid-May.

A CryptoQuant analyst said that a shift in demand into positive territory would confirm that Bitcoin's demand momentum is beginning to recover.

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin traded at $63,018 on Thursday after a modest rebound from rejection near the $64,000 level.

The cryptocurrency still maintains a bearish short-term outlook, trading below a series of key exponential moving averages. The 50-day EMA stands at $65,445, the 100-day EMA at $69,086, and the 200-day EMA at $75,139, suggesting that any rebound is likely to remain part of a broader corrective trend.

Momentum indicators, however, have improved modestly. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has recovered toward the neutral 49 level, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains in positive territory, reflecting easing selling pressure rather than a clear signal that a new uptrend has begun.

Oil prices edged lower on Thursday as markets assessed the implications of US strikes on Iran, which could undermine efforts to end the conflict between the two countries and delay the full reopening of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

Brent crude futures fell 16 cents, or 0.21%, to $77.86 a barrel by 09:38 GMT.

US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures also slipped 15 cents, or 0.20%, to $73.37 a barrel.

Both Brent and WTI had climbed to their highest levels since June 22 during Wednesday's session.

The two benchmarks also gained more than $1 in after-hours trading on Wednesday after the US military launched strikes against Iran, which responded with attacks targeting Kuwait and Bahrain.

Markets monitor Strait of Hormuz shipping as negotiations remain uncertain

Tim Waterer, Chief Market Analyst at KCM Trade, said traders are reassessing the outlook, particularly given the ongoing uncertainty surrounding oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz.

He added that expectations for de-escalation are currently preventing oil prices from extending their gains.

Insurance industry sources said on Wednesday that some war-risk insurers had advised shipping companies to temporarily suspend voyages through the Strait of Hormuz, while others are reviewing the terms of their insurance policies following renewed attacks on vessels and growing concerns over a return to war.

Goldman Sachs: Brent could trade between $75 and $85 over the next month

Before the latest escalation in the US-Israeli conflict with Iran, oil prices had been trending lower as the market digested the prospect of increased Middle Eastern supply under a fragile ceasefire, alongside signs of rising inventories.

Before the war with Iran erupted in late February, around 20% of global oil and liquefied natural gas supplies passed through the Strait of Hormuz, which remains Tehran's most powerful source of leverage in the conflict.

Goldman Sachs said near-term risks to Gulf oil flows and prices remain broadly balanced between upside and downside scenarios.

The bank expects oil flows to return to normal by the end of July if negotiations continue, sanctions waivers for Iranian oil are reinstated, and shipping companies receive adequate security guarantees. That scenario would require an increase of approximately 6.6 million barrels per day in oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz.

Conversely, the bank warned that a breakdown in negotiations, escalating attacks on oil tankers, and the possibility of a US blockade on Iranian oil exports could lead to further disruptions in oil flows.

Annika Gupta, Head of Macroeconomic Research at WisdomTree, said the base-case scenario points to Brent trading in a range of $75 to $85 a barrel over the coming month, with a modest upside bias.

She added that the recovery in global oil supplies has become a reality, although it remains incomplete. At the same time, the narrative of a significant global supply surplus has lost credibility for now, while diplomatic efforts, despite recent setbacks, have not completely collapsed.

Separately, Russia announced on Wednesday a ban on diesel exports to support its domestic fuel market after Ukrainian drone attacks on oil refineries caused fuel shortages and drove prices higher.

The US dollar edged lower on Thursday after reaching its highest levels of the week, as the United States and Iran exchanged fresh military strikes. The move came despite the recent surge in oil prices, which reignited inflation concerns and reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates in the near term.

Inflation concerns and rate hike expectations keep markets on edge

Minutes from the Federal Reserve's June meeting, released on Wednesday, showed that policymakers left the door open to another interest rate hike this year, despite ongoing divisions over the timing of such a move.

Lee Hardman, currency strategist at MUFG, said in a note that if tensions in the region escalate further and oil prices continue to climb sharply, the dollar's recent upward momentum could strengthen, particularly after the Fed signaled its willingness to raise interest rates this year.

The dollar index fell 0.2% to 100.91, weighed down by a 0.2% rise in the euro to $1.1435.

Meanwhile, the Japanese yen edged higher but remained close to its weakest level in 40 years at 162.32 per dollar, a level that could prompt Japanese authorities to intervene in the foreign exchange market to support the currency.

The latest rise in oil prices, driven by the renewed exchange of attacks between the United States and Iran, continues to weigh on the yen, given Japan's heavy reliance on imported fuel and the pressure on its fiscal position.

Volatility across currency markets also increased noticeably during the week.

Kyle Rodda, senior financial market analyst at Capital.com, said the renewed tensions in the Middle East have once again unsettled global markets and restored the war-related risk premium across asset prices.

He added that the most significant indirect effect of higher oil prices is their impact on inflation and global interest rates, noting that a sustained rally in crude could accelerate the timing of the next US interest rate hike.

Markets raise odds of a rate hike to 87%

The US military announced on Wednesday that it had launched another round of strikes against Iran, hours after US President Donald Trump declared the temporary agreement to end the war "over," sending oil prices sharply higher.

Investors view the escalating rhetoric between the two sides as a warning sign that inflationary pressures could intensify, pushing the yield on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury note to its highest level in seven weeks and signaling growing expectations for another rate hike this year.

The minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee's June meeting, the first chaired by Kevin Warsh, also showed increasing concern among policymakers over inflation.

According to CME Group's FedWatch tool, markets have raised the probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike this year to around 87%.

In energy markets, Brent crude futures slipped to around $77 a barrel, down 1.5% during Thursday's session after surging more than 5% on Wednesday to their highest level in nearly two weeks.

Among other major currencies, the New Zealand dollar led gains, rising 0.7% to US$0.574 after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand raised interest rates the previous day and signaled that another increase remains possible if warranted.

The Australian dollar also rose 0.14% to US$0.694, while sterling gained 0.2% to US$1.342.

Gold prices rose in European trading on Thursday, heading for their first gain in four sessions, supported by a weaker US dollar and a decline in global oil prices after US Central Command announced the end of military strikes on Iran.

Markets are closely watching the release of more key economic data from the United States, as well as comments from Federal Reserve officials, for fresh clues on the path of US interest rates.

The Price

• Gold prices rose 1.0% to $4,117.80 an ounce, from the opening level of $4,077.01, after hitting a low of $4,054.36.

• At Wednesday's settlement, gold prices lost 0.7%, posting their third consecutive daily decline, pressured by higher oil prices and renewed inflation concerns.

US dollar

The dollar index fell 0.3% on Thursday, extending losses for a second consecutive session and reflecting weaker levels for the US currency against a basket of major and minor currencies.

The decline came amid slower safe-haven buying of the currency, especially after some reports suggested that the current US-Iran military violations would not lead to a renewed war in the Middle East.

Global oil prices

Oil prices fell more than 2.0% on Thursday, retreating from two-week highs amid correction and profit-taking, while reports also pointed to continued shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz.

Latest developments in the Iran conflict

• US Central Command (CENTCOM) announced the end of the current round of airstrikes on military targets inside Iran.

• The US bombardment focused on coastal cities and facilities along the Strait of Hormuz, destroying two maritime traffic control towers and two piers at the strategic Port of Chabahar.

• The US military said it had destroyed more than 60 Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps naval attack boats and targeted air defense systems and coastal radar installations.

• Iran's Revolutionary Guard responded by launching ballistic missiles and drones targeting 85 US military sites in Bahrain and Kuwait.

• Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said Tehran would not back down, and that the strait would only be opened under "Iranian arrangements and procedures," not US threats.

• US President Donald Trump said the American strikes came in response to Iranian attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz.

US interest rates

• According to CME Group's FedWatch tool, markets are currently pricing a 73% probability that the Federal Reserve will leave interest rates unchanged at its July meeting, and a 27% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike.

• Markets are also pricing a 17% probability that the Federal Reserve will leave interest rates unchanged at its December meeting, and an 83% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike.

• To reassess those probabilities, investors are closely monitoring the release of more US economic data, along with comments from Federal Reserve officials.

Gold outlook

Kelvin Wong, senior market analyst for Asia-Pacific at OANDA, said the catalyst supporting the bearish trend in gold is the repricing of the possibility of a second Federal Reserve rate hike, expected in the first quarter of next year.

Wong added that after yesterday's skirmishes, the temporary ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran is now on the verge of collapse, which could lead to sharp market volatility.

SPDR fund

Gold holdings at SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, were little changed on Wednesday, leaving the total at 1,002.51 metric tons.