Bitcoin climbed to its highest level in three weeks, breaking through a widely watched technical level, as digital assets began to catch up with gains in equities and precious metals.

The world’s largest cryptocurrency rose as much as 2.3% on Monday, trading just below $93,000 by 6:34 a.m. New York time. Ether also posted modest gains. Bitcoin’s advance came alongside rallies in gold, silver, and equities following the ouster of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.

Bitcoin moved above its 50-day moving average for the first time since the crypto market selloff began in early October, one of several signals suggesting prices are stabilizing on firmer footing. The token is up about 6% so far this year.

Political uncertainty sparked by Maduro’s arrest by US forces late last week did little to dampen investor appetite for higher-risk assets such as technology stocks, while helping drive further gains in gold and silver. US equity futures rose on Monday, led by technology shares.

At times, Bitcoin has been viewed as a safe haven during periods of turmoil, while in other phases it has traded in line with equities and risk assets. The cryptocurrency fell 24% in the fourth quarter, sharply diverging from the trajectory of gold and silver prices.

Sean McNulty, head of derivatives trading for Asia-Pacific at FalconX, said the latest gains were driven by so-called crypto-native firms — companies focused exclusively on digital assets — alongside a lack of selling pressure from groups including Bitcoin miners, wealthy family offices, and other large investment funds.

Tight trading range

Bitcoin had been stuck in a narrow trading range for weeks, missing the equity rally over the Christmas holiday period and ending 2025 down 6.5%. Its performance last year fell short of expectations, despite a wave of crypto-friendly US policies promoted by President Donald Trump.

On January 2, investors poured a combined $471 million into 12 US-listed Bitcoin exchange-traded funds, marking the largest inflow since November 11 and reinforcing signs of a shift in market sentiment.

Derivatives positioning is also showing increased activity. Funding rates on Bitcoin perpetual futures — a measure of the cost of borrowing to maintain bullish bets — climbed to their highest level since October 18, according to CryptoQuant data.

Timothy Meiser, head of research at crypto firm BRN, said: “This is a market that is stabilizing rather than accelerating. The coming weeks will determine whether fresh capital inflows can translate into sustained momentum, or whether time remains the dominant force shaping prices.”

Traders are now watching to see whether Bitcoin can hold a sustained break above $94,000, while $88,000 is seen as the key support level on the downside, according to McNulty.

Oil prices fell on Monday, as ample global supply offset concerns about the impact of the US arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro on crude flows from Venezuela, which holds the world’s largest oil reserves.

Brent crude futures slipped by 23 cents, or 0.4%, to $60.52 a barrel by 09:40 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate crude fell by 21 cents, or 0.4%, to $57.11 a barrel.

Benchmark prices were volatile in early Asian trading, as investors assessed developments in Venezuela, an OPEC member whose oil exports had been subject to US sanctions, as well as the potential impact on global oil supply.

US President Donald Trump said Washington would take control of the country and that sanctions would remain in place, after Maduro was detained in a New York prison on Sunday.

In a global market characterized by abundant supply, analysts said any additional disruption to Venezuelan exports would have a limited and immediate impact on prices.

Venezuela’s oil output has collapsed over recent decades due to mismanagement and a lack of investment from foreign companies after the country nationalized its oil operations in the early 2000s.

Average production stood at around 1.1 million barrels per day last year, equivalent to roughly 1% of global output.

Kazuhiko Fuji, a senior fellow at the Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry, said the US strikes had not damaged Venezuela’s oil sector.

Fuji said: “Even if Venezuelan exports are temporarily disrupted, more than 80% of them are shipped to China, which has built up large stockpiles.”

Venezuela’s interim president offered cooperation with the United States on Sunday.

Analysts at SEB said: “This reduces the risk of a prolonged ban on Venezuelan oil exports, with the possibility that oil shipments could flow freely from Venezuela within a relatively short period.”

Trump also warned of possible further US interventions, suggesting that Colombia and Mexico could face military action if they fail to curb illicit drug flows.

Analysts are also watching Iran’s response, after Trump warned on Friday of possible intervention in the crackdown on protests in the OPEC member state.

Separately, the OPEC and its allies agreed to keep output levels unchanged at their meeting on Sunday.

The US dollar began its first full trading week of 2026 by climbing to multi-week highs against a range of currencies, following a weak performance in December, as attention turns to a slate of key US economic data due later this week.

Traders were also closely watching developments in Venezuela, following a US raid and the arrest of President Nicolás Maduro.

US President Donald Trump told reporters on Sunday that he could order another strike if US efforts to open Venezuela’s oil sector and halt drug trafficking fail. He also hinted at possible military action against Colombia and Mexico.

Against a tense geopolitical backdrop, the dollar posted modest gains. However, analysts said it is still too early to conclude that the move is sustainable. The US monthly jobs report, due on Friday, is seen as a decisive factor in shaping monetary policy expectations — and as having a greater influence on the dollar than geopolitical developments.

Macroeconomics outweigh geopolitics for now

The dollar index rose for a fifth consecutive session, gaining 0.25% to reach its highest level since December 10, driven mainly by euro weakness. The euro fell 0.31% to $1.16845, its lowest level since the same date. The dollar index had declined 1.2% in December, marking its weakest monthly performance since August.

Jeremy Stretch, head of G10 FX strategy at CIBC Markets, said: “While we do see this geopolitical risk, I don’t think we should get stuck on it. We’ll very quickly get back to macro reality, because there’s a torrent of US data through the course of this week.”

He added: “Often, the first move in FX following a big event is the wrong one. I’m not saying it’s wrong here, but I do think this dollar strength could be vulnerable to correction if we see signs of fragility in the employment data.”

Stretch noted that a recent run of strong US economic releases has pushed markets to consider a slower pace of interest rate cuts this year.

This week’s data releases begin with the Institute for Supply Management manufacturing survey on Monday and conclude with the monthly nonfarm payrolls report on Friday.

Kyle Rodda, senior financial markets analyst at Capital.com, said: “I would argue that FX markets are not really pricing in the risks from Venezuela so much as what the US data will reveal about the Federal Reserve’s policy path.”

Traders are currently pricing in two US interest rate cuts this year, according to calculations by LSEG based on futures pricing.

US rate cuts still in focus

Investors are also awaiting Trump’s pick for the next Federal Reserve chair, with Jerome Powell’s term set to expire in May. Trump has said he will announce his choice this month, indicating the successor would be “someone who believes in lower interest rates… by a lot.”

In Japan, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said on Monday that the central bank would continue raising interest rates if economic conditions and price developments evolve in line with its forecasts. He has repeated this stance several times in recent months, including after December’s widely expected rate hike to the highest level in three decades.

The dollar was steady against the Japanese yen at 156.81, rose 0.34% against the Swiss franc to 0.795, and gained around 0.2% against both the Australian and New Zealand dollars.

Gold prices rose nearly 2.5% in European trading on Monday, extending gains for a second consecutive session, supported by strong demand for safe-haven assets after the United States carried out a complex military strike in Venezuela and arrested President Nicolás Maduro over the weekend.

The advance came despite a strong rise in the US dollar against a basket of major global currencies, ahead of the release of a highly important set of US economic data that is expected to provide strong clues on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate path this year.

Price Overview

• Gold prices today: Gold prices rose by around 2.5% to $4,434.50, from an opening level of $4,332.32, and recorded a low at $4,332.32.

• At Friday’s settlement, the precious metal gained 0.3%, marking its second advance in the past three sessions, as part of a rebound from a two-week low.

The US strike in Venezuela

US forces carried out a large-scale military operation early on Saturday, during which they arrested Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, and airlifted them to New York to face charges related to drug trafficking and terrorism.

Reports said the US strike resulted in civilian casualties. In the aftermath, Vice President Delcy Rodríguez announced she had assumed the presidency on an interim basis, while stressing that Maduro remains the country’s legitimate president.

The US dollar

The US dollar index rose by 0.25% on Monday, extending gains for a fourth consecutive session and reaching a four-week high of 98.49 points, reflecting continued strength in the US currency against a basket of global currencies.

The move comes as investors focus on a crucial set of US macroeconomic indicators due later this week, which are widely seen as key to shaping expectations for US monetary policy this year.

Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s December meeting showed a tendency among US policymakers to proceed cautiously in upcoming meetings, with some participants favoring keeping interest rates unchanged “for some time” following December’s rate cut.

US interest rates

• Anna Paulson, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, said on Saturday that further rate cuts by central banks may take time after the aggressive easing cycle seen last year.

• According to the CME FedWatch tool from CME Group, markets currently price an 83% probability that US interest rates will remain unchanged at the January 2026 meeting, and a 17% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut.

• Investors are currently pricing in two US rate cuts over the course of next year, while the Federal Reserve’s own projections point to just one 25 basis point cut.

• To reassess these expectations, investors are later today awaiting the release of Institute for Supply Management data on US manufacturing activity for December.

Gold outlook

Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade, said events in Venezuela have revived safe-haven demand, with gold and silver among the main beneficiaries, as investors seek protection against geopolitical risks.

SPDR Gold Trust

Gold holdings at the SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, fell by around 5.43 metric tons on Friday, bringing total holdings down to 1,065.13 metric tons, the lowest level since December 22.