Most cryptocurrencies moved lower on Tuesday as investors continued to monitor developments in the Middle East while awaiting key US economic data that could influence Federal Reserve policy.

Bitcoin traded at $62,394 on Tuesday, June 23, 2026, down 2.54% on the day and remaining within a technical pattern known as a bearish flag on the daily chart.

Bitcoin price projections suggest that the pattern could eventually lead to a decline toward the $38,000 level, which roughly coincides with the lows recorded in 2024.

For now, Bitcoin continues to hold above the key support zone between $59,000 and $60,000, which represents its lowest levels of the year, as traders focus on two major events scheduled for this week.

Inflation data

The US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for May is due on Thursday, June 25, while quarterly futures and options contracts expire on Friday, June 26.

The broader trend continues to point toward further downside pressure, with all major moving averages being monitored by traders remaining above the current market price.

Bitcoin trading is being driven by interest rate expectations, not geopolitics

According to the report, Bitcoin is currently trading in line with interest rate expectations rather than geopolitical developments.

Although the ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran, signed in Switzerland on June 19, contributed to lower oil prices and stronger equity markets, Bitcoin failed to benefit from the improved sentiment because the Federal Reserve's latest policy meeting adopted a more hawkish tone and brought the possibility of a rate hike in 2026 back into focus.

The report noted that the situation resembles the Strait of Hormuz shock earlier this year, when geopolitical developments initially triggered a repricing in oil markets before the effects gradually spread to cryptocurrencies.

Adam Hemes, Head of Asset Management at Tesseract Group, said: "Cryptocurrencies are trading on the interest rate path, not the geopolitical path."

He added that investors are currently focused on US monetary policy signals, particularly as risk assets remain under pressure amid expectations that interest rates could stay higher for longer.

Oil prices were largely steady on Tuesday as investors monitored crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz following progress in peace negotiations between the United States and Iran.

Brent crude futures fell by 26 cents, or about 0.3%, to $77.64 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude slipped 17 cents, or 0.2%, to $73.69 per barrel by 11:55 GMT.

Prices had fallen more than 3% on Monday after the United States granted Iran a 60-day sanctions waiver following the first round of peace talks, alongside reports of easing hostilities in Lebanon as part of a broader agreement.

Ole Hvalbye, commodities analyst at SEB Research, said that crude from Venezuela and Russia, and now Iran, is available to any buyer willing to purchase it. He added that countries may seek to rebuild oil inventories to replace barrels previously drawn down.

He noted that sanctions relief is unlikely to have a major short-term impact on prices because the memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran remains new and fragile.

Limited traffic through Hormuz and challenges to restoring supplies

An Iranian military source told Fars News Agency on Tuesday that only a limited number of vessels are being allowed to pass through the Strait of Hormuz each day in coordination with the naval forces of Iran's Revolutionary Guard.

US President Donald Trump indicated that 19 million barrels of oil passed through the strait on Monday and also noted in a social media post on Tuesday that oil prices had declined.

The world lost millions of barrels of oil and natural gas supplies after the conflict led to the closure of the strait for more than three months. The waterway serves as a key transit route for roughly one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas supplies.

Tamas Varga, an analyst at PVM Oil Associates, said: "Shipowners and operators will need assurances that threats posed by naval mines have been fully removed. Damaged ports, debris in the water, and congestion are additional obstacles to a full recovery in shipping activity."

He added that restoring oil flows will require resolving several operational challenges before supply returns to normal levels.

Iraq increases production as forecasts for oil prices are lowered

Two Iraqi oil officials told Reuters that Iraq has increased output from its southern oil fields to around 2.1 million barrels per day, with additional tankers lining up to load crude from export terminals in the Gulf.

On the outlook front, Rabobank lowered its oil price forecasts, citing reduced risks of supply disruptions in the Gulf region.

The bank expects Brent crude to average $79 per barrel in the third quarter and $78 per barrel in the fourth quarter.

Despite easing supply concerns, geopolitical risks remain present. Hezbollah said on Tuesday that Israeli forces opened fire on civilians in southern Lebanon, describing the incident as a violation of the ceasefire agreement between the two sides.

The US dollar climbed to its highest level in more than a year on Tuesday as traders increasingly positioned for a more hawkish Federal Reserve policy outlook. The move came despite a modest decline in oil prices as tensions in the Gulf region eased, while the Japanese yen hovered near its weakest level in four decades.

Federal funds futures are now pricing in more than an 80% probability of an interest rate hike by September. Major financial institutions, including Bank of America Global Research and Deutsche Bank, have abandoned their previous forecasts for a steady policy stance and now expect the Federal Reserve to raise rates this year, citing the continued strength of the US economy.

"The dollar is currently reflecting expectations for higher interest rates, and it is gaining strength as a result," said Tommy von Brömsen, currency strategist at Handelsbanken.

He added: "The dollar is also benefiting from the fact that the conflict in the Middle East has not been fully resolved, leaving a significant degree of uncertainty that continues to support the US currency."

Euro and pound remain under pressure

The US Dollar Index, which measures the currency against a basket of major peers including the euro and yen, edged up to 101.13 points, its highest level since May 2025.

The euro fell to $1.1414, its weakest level since March, after European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde downplayed concerns about a second wave of inflation.

Meanwhile, sterling traded at $1.3234, slipping slightly on Tuesday after gaining in the previous session following the resignation of British Prime Minister Keir Starmer.

UK Health Secretary Wes Streeting, who had been viewed as a potential leadership contender, endorsed Andy Burnham as Starmer's successor, paving the way for a smoother leadership transition.

"One of the factors weighing on sterling had been uncertainty surrounding the leadership succession," said Commerzbank currency analyst Michael Pfister.

"With Streeting prepared to back Burnham, that uncertainty appears to be fading, allowing the pound to regain some strength," he added.

The Australian dollar, often viewed as a risk-sensitive currency, fell 0.8% to $0.6945, its weakest level since early April. The New Zealand dollar also declined about 0.5% to $0.5684.

Yen nears weakest level since 1986 amid intervention concerns

The Japanese yen traded at ¥161.48 per dollar after briefly weakening to a two-year low of ¥161.93 on Monday as the US currency continued to strengthen against major peers.

A move beyond ¥161.96 per dollar would push the Japanese currency to its weakest level since 1986.

"Volatility can be expected when the yen approaches these levels because the market anticipates that Japan may signal potential intervention or even carry out direct intervention," said von Brömsen of Handelsbanken.

A Reuters source said Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama held an online meeting with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent late Monday amid growing concerns over sharp currency market movements.

The discussions focused on possible policy measures to address the yen's historic weakness, including the possibility of intervention in the foreign exchange market.

Japanese financial authorities continue to keep markets guessing about the likelihood of intervention, with no clear signals suggesting any change in their communication strategy regarding the currency.

Gold prices fell more than 2.0% in European trading on Tuesday, resuming losses that were temporarily halted yesterday and hitting their lowest level in two weeks. The metal slipped back below the $4,100-per-ounce mark as a stronger US dollar, supported by aggressive Federal Reserve expectations, continued to pressure prices.

With markets heavily pricing in the possibility of a US interest rate hike this year, particularly after the Federal Reserve's latest hawkish meeting under Kevin Warsh, investors are awaiting additional decisive clues this week regarding the path of US monetary policy.

The Price

• Gold prices today: Gold fell 2.4% to $4,090.91, its lowest level since June 11, from an opening level of $4,191.75. The session high was recorded at $4,198.49.

• At Monday's settlement, gold gained 1.9%, posting its first advance in four sessions as part of a technical rebound and amid lower global oil prices.

US dollar

The US Dollar Index rose 0.2% on Tuesday, extending gains for a second consecutive session and reaching a 13-month high of 101.19 points, reflecting continued broad-based strength in the US currency against a basket of major and minor peers.

As is well known, a stronger US dollar makes dollar-denominated gold bullion less attractive to holders of other currencies.

The advance is being driven by demand for the dollar as the most attractive available investment, particularly after the Federal Reserve's latest hawkish projections, which significantly boosted expectations for at least one US interest rate increase this year.

This has outweighed the negative impact of fading safe-haven demand following the conclusion of the first round of US-Iran negotiations in Switzerland, which produced a 60-day roadmap aimed at reaching a final agreement between the two sides.

US-Iran negotiations

• Technical negotiations officially began this week in Switzerland, with separate working groups established to discuss the nuclear file, economic sanctions, and security in the Strait of Hormuz, as part of efforts to draft a final agreement within 60 days.

• The United States has already issued a temporary 60-day license allowing the sale and export of Iranian oil, marking the most significant practical step toward sanctions relief in years.

• Reports indicate that Iran has shown a greater willingness to cooperate with inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency.

• A direct communication channel has been activated in the Strait of Hormuz to prevent military confrontations or maritime incidents that could threaten oil tanker traffic.

• US Vice President JD Vance said that discussions with Iranian officials in Switzerland have established a solid foundation for a final peace agreement.

US interest rates

• Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee said that with the labor market remaining stable, policymakers are focused on determining whether elevated inflation will persist or gradually ease as the impact of higher tariffs fades and if a resolution to the Middle East conflict is achieved.

• According to CME Group's FedWatch Tool, market pricing for the Federal Reserve to leave interest rates unchanged at its July meeting currently stands at 68%, while the probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike is 32%.

• Market pricing for the Federal Reserve to keep rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stands at 14%, while the probability of a 25-basis-point rate increase is 86%.

• To reassess those expectations, investors are closely monitoring upcoming US economic data as well as comments from Federal Reserve officials.

Gold outlook

Tim Waterer, Chief Market Analyst at KCM Trade, said: "Gold has received some support from lower oil prices this week, but it has not enjoyed similar support from the US dollar, which continues to strengthen amid expectations of Federal Reserve rate hikes."

SPDR Fund

Holdings of the SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, increased by 1.71 metric tons on Monday, bringing total holdings to 1,022.20 metric tons, the highest level since June 4.