Bitcoin fell below the $75,000 level on Monday, retreating from its recent gains as investor caution grew amid escalating tensions between the United States and Iran ahead of the ceasefire expiration.

The world’s largest cryptocurrency was trading down 0.7% at $74,756.6 by 03:09 AM ET (07:09 GMT).

Bitcoin had briefly risen above the $78,000 level last week, driven by hopes for the continuation of the ceasefire and the reopening of shipping routes.

Escalation of U.S.-Iran tensions before the end of the truce

This decline followed a series of geopolitical developments over the weekend, including the United States seizing an Iranian-flagged cargo ship, alongside signals from Tehran of its possible non-participation in a new round of negotiations.

These developments raised fears of a renewed conflict, especially with the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which is a vital artery for global oil transport.

These escalating tensions led to a sharp rise in oil prices and caused a wave of risk aversion in the markets, with U.S. stock futures declining during Asian trading.

Cryptocurrencies typically move in tandem with high-risk assets, which exposed them to selling pressure as investors turned toward traditional safe havens.

Analysts expect volatility levels to remain high in the near term, as the direction of the digital currency market continues to depend heavily on geopolitical developments and oil price movements.

Polymarket seeks to raise $400 million at a $15 billion valuation

In a separate context, a report by The Information on Sunday, citing informed sources, stated that the prediction platform Polymarket is in talks to raise $400 million at a valuation of approximately $15 billion.

This move comes amid growing investor interest in prediction market platforms, which have seen a surge in trading volumes and institutional participation in recent months.

Polymarket is seeking to secure new capital to expand its platform and strengthen its position in the rapidly growing event-based trading market, according to the report.

The potential valuation represents a significant jump compared to previous funding rounds, reflecting strong demand for this type of platform linked to real-world outcomes.

The company did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the report.

Cryptocurrency prices today: Altcoins decline despite relatively positive performance

Most alternative currencies also declined slightly on Monday amid an atmosphere of caution.

Ethereum, the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency, fell 1.3% to $2,285.63.

Meanwhile, Ripple, the third-largest cryptocurrency, declined 0.4% to $1.41.

Oil prices surged by approximately 5% during Monday's trading amid fears of a collapse in the U.S.-Iran ceasefire after Washington seized an Iranian cargo ship, while navigation through the Strait of Hormuz remained nearly halted.

Brent crude contracts rose by $4.37, or 4.8%, to reach $94.75 per barrel by 11:48 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) climbed by $4.76, or 5.7%, to $88.61 per barrel.

Both contracts had declined by 9% on Friday—their largest daily drop since April 18—after Iran announced that passage for all commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz was open for the remainder of the ceasefire.

At the same time, U.S. President Donald Trump stated that Iran had agreed not to close the Strait again, a waterway through which approximately one-fifth of global oil supplies flowed before the war broke out nearly two months ago.

Jun Guo, an analyst at Sparta Commodities, said: "Within just 24 hours of the 'full opening' announcement on Friday, there were already tankers coming under fire from the Iranian Revolutionary Guard."

She added: "Market fundamentals are deteriorating, as between 10 to 11 million barrels per day of crude oil remain out of supply," referring to production losses.

The United States stated on Sunday that it had seized an Iranian cargo ship that attempted to break the blockade, while Iran announced it would retaliate, increasing fears of a resumption of hostilities.

Tehran also announced it would not participate in a second round of negotiations that the United States had hoped to launch before the expiration of the two-week ceasefire this week.

Bjarne Schieldrop, an analyst at SEB Research, said: "Financial markets are trading on the basis of negotiation, improvement, and resolution, while at the same time the physical market is deteriorating day by day."

He added: "Physical oil flows remain restricted due to supply disruption, longer voyage times, and high shipping and insurance costs."

Shipping data showed that maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remained nearly at a standstill on Monday, with only three transits recorded during the past 12 hours.

More than 20 vessels had crossed the Strait on Saturday, carrying oil, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), metals, and fertilizers, according to Kpler data—the highest number of vessels to cross the passage since March 1.

In another context, China is reducing refined fuel exports rather than banning them, as countries like Malaysia and Australia continue to receive supplies, even after Beijing extended the restrictions imposed last month into April, according to shipping data and traders.

The U.S. dollar climbed to one-week highs against major currencies on Monday before paring some gains, as renewed U.S.-Iran tensions and fading hopes for a Middle East peace deal drove investors toward safe-haven assets.

The United States stated on Sunday that it had seized an Iranian cargo ship that attempted to break the blockade, while Iran announced it would retaliate, sparking fears of a resumption of hostilities.

Tehran also announced it would not participate in a second round of negotiations that the U.S. had hoped to launch before the expiration of the two-week ceasefire with Iran on Tuesday.

Charu Chanana, head of investment strategy at Saxo, said:

"The weekend escalation revives the geopolitical risk premium just as markets were starting to price in peace gains," adding that the rise in oil prices "is not just an energy story, it is also a growth and interest rate story."

In latest trading, the euro fell 0.05% to $1.1754, after hitting a one-week low of $1.1729 earlier in the session, while the British pound declined 0.15% to $1.3497. The risk-sensitive Australian dollar also dropped 0.3% to $0.7145.

The dollar index, which measures the U.S. currency against a basket of six peers, rose to a one-week high of 98.47 before retreating to 98.34.

The index remains down 1.55% during April, after having jumped 2.3% in March driven by safe-haven demand following the outbreak of the war.

Analysts noted that the relatively limited movements in the currency market, with the dollar retreating from some of its early gains, suggest some remaining optimism that a solution is still possible despite the weekend setbacks.

Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone, said:

"While the market tone leans toward risk aversion at the start of the week, the moves so far appear orderly and not indicative of a major volatility shock."

He added: "Market participants realize the path toward a formal agreement will not be linear and will remain subject to sudden changes, so a shift in sentiment would not be entirely surprising."

Markets focus on the Strait of Hormuz

The war has entered its eighth week and has caused the most severe energy supply shock in history, leading to rising oil prices as a result of the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which about one-fifth of global oil supplies typically pass.

The United States continues to impose a blockade on Iranian ports, while Iran has lifted and then reimposed its blockade on maritime traffic through this vital waterway.

This led to a rebound in oil prices on Monday, with Brent crude contracts jumping by more than 6% to $95.92 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose to $89.29 per barrel, a 6.5% increase.

Nick Twidale, chief market strategist at ATFX Global in Sydney, said:

"The Strait of Hormuz remains the fundamental factor for many, and hopes for the U.S. and Iran sitting at the negotiating table before the ceasefire expires now seem remote."

He added: "For now, I believe we will see further declines in risk assets in the coming sessions."

Japanese yen under pressure

The Japanese yen declined to 158.96 per dollar, although it remains below the critical 160 level that traders fear could prompt authorities to intervene to support the currency.

Silver prices lost more than 2.5% in the European market on Monday, moving away from five-week highs due to active correction and profit-taking, alongside pressure from a rising U.S. dollar fueled by renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

The U.S. Navy's seizure of an Iranian cargo ship has escalated tensions between the United States and Iran over control of the Strait of Hormuz, while Tehran continues to refuse participation in a new round of negotiations scheduled for later today in Pakistan.

Price Overview

- Silver Prices Today: Silver metal prices fell by 2.65% to ($78.65), from an opening level of ($80.78), which also marked the daily high.

- Upon price settlement on Friday, silver prices achieved a 0.3% increase, marking the first gain in three days and hitting a five-week high of $83.06 per ounce following Iran's announcement to open the Strait of Hormuz.

- Last week, silver surged by 6.4%, marking its fourth consecutive weekly gain, supported by the Iranian war truce and improved market sentiment.

The U.S. Dollar

The dollar index rose 0.15% on Monday, extending its gains for a third consecutive session and reaching its highest level in nearly a week. This reflects the continued ascent of the American currency against a basket of global currencies.

The rise is driven by renewed safe-haven buying of the U.S. dollar amid escalating U.S.-Iran tensions and diminishing prospects for a Middle East peace agreement.

Charu Chanana, head of investment strategy at Saxo, noted that the weekend escalation has revived the geopolitical risk premium just as markets had begun to price in potential peace gains.

Iranian War Updates

- The Iranian Navy announced the re-closing of the Strait of Hormuz as of Saturday afternoon until the U.S. blockade on Iranian vessels is lifted.

- U.S. President Donald Trump stated that the U.S. Navy intercepted the Iranian-flagged cargo ship "Tosca" in the Gulf of Oman.

- Tehran labeled the attack on the ship an "act of maritime piracy" and a flagrant violation of the ceasefire agreement, vowing to retaliate.

- While Islamabad prepares to host a second round of peace negotiations today, Iran has so far refused to participate.

- International and regional parties are pressuring Tehran to join the talks before the two-week ceasefire expires tomorrow, Tuesday.

Global Oil Prices

Global oil prices surged by more than 5% on Monday, staging a strong recovery from four-week lows as fears of supply disruptions from the Arabian Gulf resurfaced following the re-closing of the Strait of Hormuz.

Rising oil prices are renewing concerns over accelerating inflation, which could prompt global central banks to raise interest rates in the near term—a sharp shift from pre-war expectations of rate cuts or prolonged pauses.

U.S. Interest Rates

- According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool: the probability of keeping U.S. interest rates unchanged at the April meeting is currently priced at 99%, while the probability of a 25-basis-point hike stands at 1%.

- Investors are closely monitoring upcoming U.S. economic data to re-evaluate these expectations.