Bitcoin edges higher as volatility falls and traders brace for a major move

Bitcoin (BTC) traded slightly higher near $63,500 on Monday following a modest correction last week, supported by improving risk appetite despite limited institutional outflows.

The world’s largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization has traded largely sideways since mid-July, with a tight trading range and subdued volatility, a pattern that analysts believe could soon come to an end.

Institutional demand shows signs of caution

Institutional demand showed some caution last week, with US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (Spot BTC ETFs) recording net outflows of $389.71 million, according to data from SoSoValue.

If these outflows continue and accelerate this week, Bitcoin could face further corrective pressure.

Tightening trading range signals higher volatility ahead

A report from 10x Research on Monday noted that trading volumes have fallen sharply compared with the record levels seen following the US presidential inauguration and the peak of the October flash crash.

At the same time, Bitcoin has entered its narrowest trading range in several months, a situation that the analyst said “typically does not persist for long.”

The analyst said options-market flows point to a shift in investor conviction, with implied volatility falling to historically low levels despite weak inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs, continued outflows from stablecoins and MicroStrategy becoming a net seller of Bitcoin for four consecutive weeks.

Taken together, these factors suggest Bitcoin could be approaching a fresh period of heightened volatility, with a strong and sustained move in either direction potentially determining the cryptocurrency’s short-term trend, according to the report.

US-Iran negotiations stall

Over the weekend, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Iran had not yet decided whether to resume talks with the United States, while US President Donald Trump urged Americans to accept slightly higher gasoline prices as the conflict continues.

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said talks with Oman were continuing, but were taking considerable time due to the complexity of the issue, the number of parties involved and efforts by some countries to obstruct the process.