Bitcoin fell to $115,000 during Monday trading, marking a sharp reversal after last week’s record highs, as expectations for aggressive monetary easing by the Federal Reserve diminished and geopolitical risks weighed on investor appetite for high-risk assets.

The world’s largest cryptocurrency was last down 2% at $115,664.5 as of 01:58 AM Eastern Time (05:58 GMT).

It had climbed last week to a record above $124,000, but retreated after US producer price data came in hotter than expected, reigniting inflation concerns tied to tariffs.

Other digital currencies also slipped on Monday, with Ether extending losses away from its recent near-record highs.

Weak rate cut expectations and rising geopolitical risks weigh on the market

US producer price index data and stronger-than-expected import price data last week weakened hopes for a substantial Fed rate cut in September.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, expectations shifted from a half-point cut to a more modest 25-basis-point reduction.

Meanwhile, the Alaska summit between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin ended last week without an agreement on Ukraine.

Trump — who had previously pushed for a ceasefire — moved closer to Moscow’s position by supporting a full peace agreement first, which was seen as strengthening Putin’s stance.

Investors are awaiting further geopolitical developments, with Trump set to meet later today with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and several key European leaders in Washington.

The market remains cautious amid uncertainty over whether these talks will yield tangible progress or intensify risks, limiting demand for speculative assets like Bitcoin.

Gold prices rose on Monday as investors shifted toward safe havens ahead of this pivotal event.

Cryptocurrency prices today: losses extend to Bitcoin alternatives

Sharp losses extended across most alternative cryptocurrencies as Bitcoin retreated, amid broad selling pressure ahead of key events.

Ethereum (the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency) dropped 2.9% to $4,301.61 after coming close to record highs last week.

Ripple (the third-largest cryptocurrency) fell 4.3% to $2.98 on Monday.

How far could Bitcoin fall?

Bitcoin has seen a corrective pullback of about 8% since hitting a record high above $124,500 four days ago. It now faces risks of further downside due to a classic bearish reversal pattern.

Bitcoin drop below $100,000 remains possible

Bitcoin confirmed a bearish breakdown from a rising wedge pattern on the daily chart, according to analyst Captain Faibik.

Traditional analysts often view rising wedges as bearish reversal patterns that precede sharp declines after extended uptrends.

In Bitcoin’s case, this wedge had been forming since April, with progressively higher highs and lows converging toward the top.

The breakdown below the support line signals a test of former resistance levels that have turned into support, reflecting weakening momentum and growing selling pressure.

Analysts identified immediate support between $110,000 and $112,000, and losing this range could open the path toward $105,000–$108,000.

The decline could extend to the psychological zone of $98,000–$100,000 by September, a 20% drop from the recent peak, if selling accelerates.

Potential drop to $88,000

The price target for a rising wedge breakdown is usually measured by subtracting the maximum pattern height from the breakdown point.

Applying this to Bitcoin’s chart suggests a downside target around $88,000. However, this bearish scenario would be invalidated if Bitcoin holds above the 50-day EMA, which provided strong support during its latest rally of over 50% since April.

In that case, prices could rebound toward the wedge’s upper boundary near $125,000 by September.

Bitcoin double-top scenario hints at $94,750 level

Bitcoin’s weekly close reflects the possibility of forming a double-top pattern, similar to what occurred in 2021. This bearish reversal pattern is characterized by two successive peaks at nearly the same level, signaling weakening momentum.

In 2021, this pattern preceded a steep 77% decline, as Bitcoin dropped from around $69,000 to below $16,000 in the following months.

A similar setup now increases short-term risks unless prices reverse quickly, according to Swissblock analysts.

Bitcoin faces downside risks toward the 50-day EMA (red wave) around $94,750 by September if the double-top scenario plays out as it did in 2021.

Oil prices rose on Monday after White House trade adviser Peter Navarro said that India’s purchases of Russian crude are financing Moscow’s war in Ukraine and must stop.

Traders were also awaiting signals from a later meeting on the same day between US President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, in an attempt to reach a peace agreement that would end the bloodiest war in Europe in 80 years.

Brent crude futures rose by 0.46% or 30 cents to $66.15 a barrel as of 10:05 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate crude climbed 38 cents or 0.61% to $63.18 a barrel.

Navarro’s comments that India’s purchases of Russian crude finance Moscow’s war in Ukraine revived concerns over supply flows. Navarro said: “India is acting as a global clearing house for Russian oil, converting sanctioned crude into high-value exports, while handing Moscow the dollars it needs.”

Olle Hvalbye, an analyst at SEB, said that this statement sparked some buying interest in the market.

Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst at brokerage firm Phillip Nova, added: “The sharp remarks from the US adviser on India’s oil imports from Russia, along with the delay in trade talks, have revived concerns that energy flows remain hostage to trade and diplomatic tensions, even as the prospects for peace in Ukraine improve.”

Trump is scheduled to meet Zelensky first at 17:15 GMT, then meet all European leaders at 19:00 GMT.

Trump told Ukraine on Monday that it must abandon hopes of regaining Crimea, which Russia annexed, or of joining NATO, as he appeared closer to Moscow in seeking a peace deal rather than a ceasefire first, following his meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska on Friday.

Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, said: “I don’t think the oil market has fully priced in the potential ‘peace dividend,’ which could lead to further setbacks in crude and European gas prices.”

Hansen added that speculators, in the week ending August 12, held the first-ever joint net short position in West Texas Intermediate crude (across both CME and ICE exchanges), leaving prices exposed to any bullish surprises.

Investors are also closely watching Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks at the Jackson Hole meeting this week, regarding the path of US interest rate cuts, which could push stocks to record highs.

The dollar rose against the euro and the British pound on Monday, ahead of an expected meeting between US President Donald Trump and his Ukrainian and European counterparts, while attention also turned to the Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole symposium, in search of signals on monetary policy.

The euro fell by 0.2% against the dollar, recording 1.1683 dollars, while the British pound declined 0.1% to 1.3546 dollars.

The reduction of bets on interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve next month helped support the US currency, amid relatively limited moves in the foreign exchange markets on Monday. Money markets are now pricing in an 85% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates by a quarter percentage point next month, after traders reduced their bets on the certainty of a new cut, following data that included a jump in US wholesale prices last month and a strong increase in retail sales for July.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak on the economic outlook and the monetary policy framework at the Jackson Hole symposium, scheduled between August 21 and 23.

Lee Hardman, senior currency analyst at MUFG Bank, said the US central bank is likely to cut rates in September as well, but it is unlikely that the Fed chairman will give a clear signal toward that this week. He added: “It is probably still too early for them (the Fed) to have full confidence in the possibility of cutting rates again.”

The most prominent event for investors on Monday was the White House meeting between Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, with the participation of some European leaders, while Washington pressed Kyiv to accept a quick peace deal to end the bloodiest war in Europe in 80 years.

Trump had met with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin on Friday, and they agreed on the need to work on a peace agreement without reaching a ceasefire.

Analysts at ING Bank said in a research note that “financial markets are still trading as if there is – an undefined path yet – that may lead to peace.” The note added: “With the rise of high-risk assets and the decline in energy prices, we expect the dollar to remain under slight pressure, with dollar-dependent investors continuing to pump money.”

A senior official in Trump’s foreign policy team indicated on Sunday that the president may offer Ukraine protection similar to that provided by NATO, while Russia is open to this idea.

In other currency markets, the dollar rose by 0.1% against the Japanese yen, recording 147.38, while the Swiss franc fell 0.1% to 0.8069.

The Japanese government had ignored on Friday rare and candid remarks from US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who said that the Bank of Japan is “behind the curve” in its policies, in a statement considered pressure on the Japanese central bank to raise interest rates.

As for the Australian dollar, it rose 0.1% to 0.6515 dollars, while the New Zealand dollar climbed 0.3% to 0.5941 dollars after it had fallen 0.5% last week.

In the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin halted its strong rally and retreated from a record level, as it fell by 2% to trade at 115,362.46 dollars. Similarly, Ether dropped by 4.3% to 4,275.85 dollars, after touching last week its highest levels in about four years.

Gold prices rose in the European market on Monday to hold above a two-week low recorded earlier in Asian trading, with buying activity emerging from low levels ahead of talks between the United States and Ukraine to end the war ongoing in Eastern Europe for more than three years.

The recovery of the precious metal "gold" is being capped by the rise of the US dollar in the foreign exchange market, as markets await further evidence on whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September.

Price Overview

• Gold prices today: Gold rose by about 0.7% to $3,358.46, from the opening level of $3,336.08, and recorded a low at $3,323.64, the lowest since August 1.

• At Friday’s settlement, gold prices posted a rise of less than 0.1%, their third gain in the last four days, supported by the decline in the US dollar.

• Gold lost 1.8% last week, marking the first weekly loss in three weeks, after the release of strong US producer price and retail sales data.

US-Ukraine Talks

The main event for investors on Monday is a meeting between Trump and Zelensky, joined by some European leaders, as Washington presses Ukraine to accept a quick peace deal to end the deadliest war in Europe in 80 years.

Trump is relying on Zelensky to reach an agreement following his meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska, where he appeared more aligned with Moscow in seeking a peace deal rather than a ceasefire first.

Sources familiar with Moscow’s thinking said Russia would give up small pockets of occupied Ukrainian territory, while Kyiv would abandon large swathes of its eastern lands that Moscow has failed to control, under peace proposals discussed by Putin and Trump during their Alaska summit.

US Dollar

The US dollar index rose by more than 0.2% on Monday, beginning to recover from a two-week low, reflecting a rebound in the US currency against a basket of major and minor peers.

US Interest Rates

• Following strong US producer price and retail sales data, and according to CME’s FedWatch tool: the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the September meeting fell from 99% to 85%, while the probability of no change rose from 1% to 15%.

• The probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in October fell from 99% to 93%, while the probability of no change rose from 1% to 7%.

• Expectations of a 50-basis-point rate cut in either the September or October meetings have completely disappeared.

• Alberto Musalem, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, said a half-point rate cut in September is unjustified, a day after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggested it was possible.

• To reprice these probabilities, investors are closely watching US economic data and comments from Federal Reserve officials.

Gold Outlook

Tim Waterer, Chief Market Analyst at KCM Trade, said: Gold was in a defensive position at the start of the day but managed to reverse course as buyers emerged around $3,330 as an investment option. US Treasury yields gave up part of Friday’s gains, which also helped ease the pressure on gold prices.

Waterer added: We are currently seeing limited moves in both directions ahead of what could be crucial White House meetings this week with Zelensky returning to Washington.

SPDR Fund

Gold holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed ETF, rose by about 4.01 metric tons on Friday, bringing the total to 965.37 metric tons, the highest since September 9, 2022.