Bitcoin briefly fell to $81,871.19 early Friday before stabilizing near $82,460, down about 10.2% over the past 24 hours.

Following nearly a month of persistent selling, Bitcoin is now trading 10% below its level at the start of the year, having erased most of the gains it made after Donald Trump’s election victory last year.

The last time Bitcoin slipped below $82,000 was in April — when it dropped to $75,000 — during a broad market selloff triggered by Trump’s announcement of sweeping tariffs at the “Liberation Day” event.

Based on data from Deribit — the options and futures exchange owned by Coinbase — CoinDesk reported that traders are positioning for further downside.

Ethereum, the second-largest cryptocurrency by market value, fell below $2,740, down more than 9.6% over 24 hours. Other major tokens also came under heavy pressure, with XRP, BNB, and SOL dropping 9.1%, 8.4%, and 10.6%, respectively. Dogecoin — the largest meme coin — lost 10.3% over the same period.

After hitting fresh record highs early last month, the crypto market has endured steady declines following an unprecedented single-day wipeout on October 10, when $19.37 billion in leveraged positions were liquidated in 24 hours. The event was sparked by Trump’s announcement of an additional 100% tariff on Chinese imports — a move he later walked back. Digital assets have also been caught in broader market volatility in recent days, with more than $2.2 billion liquidated over 24 hours, according to CoinGlass.

The total market value of all cryptocurrencies now stands at $2.92 trillion, according to CoinGecko — a 33% drop from the roughly $4.38 trillion peak reached in early October. Since the start of this month, Bitcoin’s market capitalization has fallen about 25%, marking the steepest monthly decline since the crypto crash of 2022, according to Bloomberg.

Shares of Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) — widely seen as a proxy for Bitcoin due to its massive holdings — fell 2.44% in pre-market trading on Friday, after sliding 11% over the past week and 41% over the past 30 days. The company currently holds 649,870 BTC at an average purchase price of $74,430.

In a note earlier this week, JPMorgan analysts warned that Strategy faces a risk of removal from major indices such as the Nasdaq 100 and MSCI USA. Such an exclusion could drive further declines in its stock, and potentially weigh on crypto markets if the company is forced to sell part of its Bitcoin holdings.

Oil prices fell more than 2% on Friday, extending losses for a third straight session, as U.S. pressure to secure a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine raised concerns about increased global supply, while uncertainty over interest rates continued to sap risk appetite.

Brent crude futures dropped $1.40, or 2.2%, to $61.98 a barrel by 10:10 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude slid 2.5%, or $1.48, to $57.52.

Both benchmarks are on track for a weekly decline of about 4%, erasing the gains made last week.

Market sentiment has shifted decisively bearish as Washington pushes for a peace framework between Ukraine and Russia to end the three-year conflict — just as U.S. sanctions on Russian oil majors Rosneft and Lukoil are set to take effect on Friday.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said he would work with Washington on a plan to end the war.

“With reports of talks emerging at the same time U.S. sanctions on Russia’s two biggest oil companies take effect today, oil markets saw some relief from supply-risk concerns,” said Jim Reid, managing director at Deutsche Bank. “But a peace deal still appears distant.”

Analysts at ANZ echoed that caution, telling clients that “an agreement remains far from certain,” noting Kyiv’s repeated rejection of Moscow’s demands as unacceptable.

They added that the market has also grown skeptical about how effective the new restrictions on Rosneft and Lukoil will be. Lukoil has until December 13 to sell its large international portfolio.

A stronger dollar also weighed on crude, with the currency heading for its best week in more than a month as investors increasingly expect the Federal Reserve to leave interest rates unchanged next month.

Kelvin Wong, senior analyst at OANDA, said the CME FedWatch tool now shows the probability of a December rate cut has fallen sharply to around 35%, down from nearly 90% a month ago.

After months of heavy hedging triggered by the tariff shock that rattled the dollar earlier this year, foreign investors who rushed to protect their U.S. holdings against further depreciation are now slowing those efforts sharply — a vote of confidence that has helped the dollar rebound from its worst slump in years.

Analysts stress that hedging levels remain above historical norms, but activity has clearly retreated from the peak reached immediately after “Liberation Day” on April 2, when President Donald Trump announced sweeping trade tariffs.

At that time, foreign investors holding U.S. assets faced a double blow: falling equity and bond prices, and a sharp drop in the dollar. The fastest movers rushed to hedge against further currency losses, and many expected the wave to intensify. Instead, it faded — allowing the dollar to stabilize.

David Lee, head of FX and emerging markets research at Nomura, said: “Our conversations with clients now suggest that these hedging flows are less likely to come in as quickly as we anticipated back in May.”

The dollar index — which tracks the U.S. currency against major peers — has climbed about 4% since late June, when it was down roughly 11% after its worst half-year since the early 1970s.

Because hedging data is sparse, analysts rely on broad indicators and reports from custodians and major banks.

Figures from BNY — one of the world’s largest custodians — show that clients entered 2025 strongly long U.S. assets, indicating little expectation of additional dollar weakness and limited urgency to hedge. That changed in April, pushing hedging above normal, though still below the highs of late 2023 when markets expected the Federal Reserve to begin rate cuts.

“Dollar-diversification this year is talked about far more than it is actually implemented,” said Geoffrey Yu, senior market strategist at BNY.

Other custodians report similar trends.

State Street Markets’ analysis of assets under custody shows foreign equity managers hedged 24% of their dollar exposure by the end of October — up four percentage points since February but well below past levels that exceeded 30%. The firm also noted that hedging momentum slowed in recent weeks.

Differences appear across markets. A National Australia Bank survey of Australian pension funds found “no significant change” in hedging behavior toward U.S. equities. Meanwhile, data from Denmark’s central bank shows pension-fund hedging stabilized after jumping in April.

William Davies, CIO of Columbia Threadneedle, said the firm initially moved quickly to hedge its U.S. equity exposure when the dollar slumped, but later pared those hedges, betting the currency would not fall much further.

No “snowball effect”

Hedging flows themselves move currencies — adding hedges against a falling dollar requires selling the dollar, and removing hedges does the opposite.

If these flows coincide with shifts in interest rates, they can snowball into a self-reinforcing cycle that drives the currency lower.

Paul Mackel, head of FX research at HSBC, said: “There was a belief earlier this year that a snowball effect might develop, but that ultimately didn’t materialize.”

“It could happen next year,” he added. “But it’s not our base case.”

Still, investor behavior may be shifting. BlackRock estimates that 38% of flows into U.S. equity ETFs listed in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa this year have gone into hedged products — up from just 2% in 2024.

Costs, correlations, and complexity

Hedging costs are shaped by interest-rate differentials and often serve as a brake on hedging appetite.

Fan Luo, head of fixed income and currency solutions at Russell Investments, estimates Japanese investors pay roughly 3.7% annually to hedge against dollar weakness — a steep cost.

If USD/JPY stayed flat for a year, a hedged investor would lose 3.7% versus an unhedged one. Euro-funded investors face a hedging cost of about 2%.

“My rule of thumb for European investors is this: around 1% they don’t care much — 2% becomes meaningful,” Luo said.

Asset correlations also matter. The dollar usually strengthens when equities fall, offering a natural hedge for foreign investors.

That didn’t happen in April, fueling the hedging rush. This month, however, the dollar held steady even as equities dipped again.

Changing hedging policies can also be complicated for asset managers benchmarked to unhedged indices.

Fidelity International recommends European investors gradually raise hedging to 50% of their dollar exposure, but Salman Ahmed, head of macro and strategic asset allocation, says the process is “extremely complex” and may require changes in governance and benchmarks.

If rates move against the dollar and the currency weakens again — making hedging cheaper — pressure to shift strategies could increase.

“There is still enormous potential for hedging of dollar-denominated assets,” Nomura’s David Lee said. “But whether it happens — and how fast — remains an open question.” “That’s what the FX market is trying to figure out now.”

Gold prices fell in European trading on Friday, extending losses for a second consecutive session and nearing a weekly decline, pressured by the strong performance of the US dollar in the foreign-exchange market amid fading expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December.

Minutes from the Fed’s latest policy meeting reduced the likelihood of continued monetary easing, and investors are now awaiting key US sector data later today to reassess those expectations.

Price overview

•Gold today: spot gold fell 1.2% to 4,029.36 dollars, down from the opening level of 4,077.27 dollars, after hitting an intraday high of 4,088.83 dollars.

•On Thursday, gold settled down by less than 0.1%, marking its first loss in three sessions, weighed by a stronger US dollar.

Weekly performance

So far this week—ending with today’s settlement—gold prices are down roughly 1.5%, on track for a fourth weekly decline in five weeks.

US dollar

The dollar index traded on Friday near a two-week high, reflecting continued strength in the US currency and putting it on course for its largest weekly gain in six weeks.

Investors continue to favor the dollar as the most attractive asset at the moment amid mounting uncertainty over whether the Federal Reserve will proceed with a rate cut in December.

Federal Reserve

Minutes from the FOMC meeting on October 28–29, released Wednesday in Washington, showed that “many” policymakers opposed a rate cut at that meeting.

The minutes indicated that many participants believe the target range for the federal funds rate is likely to remain unchanged through year-end based on their economic projections.

However, some members noted that an additional cut in December “could be appropriate” if economic data evolves broadly in line with expectations ahead of the next meeting.

US interest rates

•Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said Monday that the central bank needs to “proceed slowly” with any further rate reductions.

•Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee reiterated Thursday that he is “uncomfortable” with rushing into a rate cut, especially as progress toward the 2% inflation target has slowed and started to move “in the wrong direction.”

•Following the minutes and recent remarks, CME’s FedWatch tool showed rate-cut odds for December falling from 48% to 30%, with odds of no change rising from 52% to 70%.

•The delayed US nonfarm payrolls report—postponed due to the government shutdown—showed the economy added 119,000 jobs in September, more than double the expected 50,000.

•The stronger-than-expected jobs report reinforced expectations that the Fed will refrain from cutting rates in December.

•Investors now await key US economic releases later today, covering major “industrial–commercial” sector activity for November, to reassess the outlook.

Gold outlook

Brian Lan, managing director at Singapore-based GoldSilver Central, said gold is currently in a consolidation phase: the dollar has strengthened meaningfully, and uncertainty persists over whether the Fed will move ahead with additional rate cuts.

Lan added: “The market seems unsure, especially as we approach year-end. We expect many traders to lock in profits, and we’ve already seen that trend from late last week through this week.”

SPDR Gold Trust

Holdings at SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed ETF, fell by 4.29 metric tons on Thursday, bringing total holdings down to 1,039.43 metric tons—the lowest level since November 11.