Bitcoin fell to around $120,000 on Wednesday, down 2.22% over the past 24 hours, trading near $121,000 and marking a 3.75% decline from its record high of $126,000 reached earlier this week.

The pullback follows a strong rally that began in late September, coinciding with a surge in inflows to US spot Bitcoin ETFs — which recorded their second-largest week of inflows since launching in January 2024.

According to earlier reports, those funds saw a combined $1.19 billion in inflows on October 6, led by BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), which alone attracted $967 million. The following day, October 7, the funds experienced net outflows of $23.81 million.

$140,000 Before the End of October?

Economist Timothy Peterson said that historical models based on the past decade’s data suggest a 50% chance that Bitcoin could exceed $140,000 by the end of October.

His analysis, derived from hundreds of simulations using actual price data since 2015, shows that roughly half of the potential monthly gains have already been realized. However, Peterson also estimated a 43% probability that Bitcoin will close the month below $136,000, underscoring the extreme volatility that continues to define the crypto market.

October has historically been one of Bitcoin’s strongest months, delivering average returns of 20.75% since 2013, according to CoinGlass. For the token to reach $140,000, it would need to rise about 14.7% from current levels.

Gold Hits New Record Highs

While Bitcoin’s momentum slowed, traditional safe-haven assets continued to surge. Spot gold climbed above $4,000 per ounce, reaching a record $4,017.16 on the morning of October 8, while US gold futures for December delivery advanced to $4,040 per ounce.

Gold has delivered exceptional performance in 2025, up 53% year-to-date after gaining 27% in 2024, as investors increasingly turn to it as a hedge against inflation and currency weakness — even as Bitcoin matures as a potential digital alternative.

On-Chain Data Shows Declining Selling Pressure

According to CryptoQuant data, the Fund Flow Ratio — which measures exchange-related transactions versus total network activity — dropped to its lowest level since July 2023.

This suggests more Bitcoin is moving into private wallets for long-term holding, DeFi applications, or OTC institutional trades rather than being sent to exchanges for liquidation.

Such patterns often precede medium-term recoveries, as investors begin rotating capital toward the next promising digital assets.

Oil prices rose more than 1% on Wednesday, supported by OPEC+’s decision to implement a smaller-than-expected production increase next month, even as persistent concerns over a potential supply glut limited further gains.

Brent crude futures climbed 82 cents, or 1.3%, to $66.27 a barrel by 09:45 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 85 cents, or 1.4%, to $62.58 a barrel.

Both benchmarks had ended the previous session little changed, as investors weighed signs of growing global supply against OPEC+’s modest output hike for November. The alliance — comprising the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies led by Russia — announced the move over the weekend.

“The minimal increase that OPEC+ agreed to on Sunday was enough to provide some support for prices,” said Tamas Varga, oil analyst at PVM, in a note on Wednesday.

OPEC+ agreed to raise its collective production target for November by 137,000 barrels per day amid mounting concerns of a potential surplus in the oil market, according to Reuters sources within the group.

Goldman Sachs said it expects global inventories to rise by 1.5 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of the year, despite strong seasonal demand, projecting a surplus of around 2 million barrels per day from Q4 2025 through Q4 2026.

However, the bank noted there are upside risks to prices if Russian output declines.

Investors now await US inventory data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), due later on Wednesday.

On Tuesday, industry data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) showed that US crude inventories rose by 2.78 million barrels in the week ending October 3, while gasoline and distillate stocks declined over the same period.

Meanwhile, the EIA reported on Tuesday that US oil production is expected to reach a new record this year, surpassing previous estimates.

The US dollar rose against most major currencies on Wednesday, climbing alongside gold in a broad risk-off rally, while both the euro and yen came under pressure.

The US government shutdown entered its second week as Republicans and Democrats continued to prioritize potential political gains over resolving the underlying disputes. Some faint calls for renewed negotiations on healthcare-related issues have emerged, but earlier hopes of ending the shutdown within 11–15 days are fading.

Meanwhile, political uncertainty in Japan intensified following Sanae Takaichi’s weekend victory in the ruling party election. Market attention has now shifted to the Japanese parliament’s (Diet) vote to confirm her appointment as the next prime minister.

However, complications have reportedly emerged in negotiations between the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its coalition partner, Komeito. If this gridlock persists, Takaichi’s political future could be at risk — and alternative leadership options may arise.

This renewed uncertainty drove the USD/JPY pair above 151.93 for the first time since February 14, prompting speculation that verbal interventions could return to curb yen weakness.

Analysts believe that if the LDP–Komeito negotiations succeed and parliament formally confirms Takaichi as prime minister, the dollar’s upward momentum against the yen could partially reverse.

By 11:44 GMT, the US dollar index had risen 0.3% to 98.8, after hitting a session high of 98.9 and a low of 98.5.

Macron Seeks an Exit from France’s Political Crisis

In France, the situation remains equally complex as President Emmanuel Macron continues to search for a viable resolution to the ongoing political turmoil.

If the latest efforts by outgoing Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu to form a new government fail, early parliamentary elections may become the default scenario.

However, a newly elected but fragmented parliament would likely prolong the current deadlock.

French sovereign bonds remain under pressure, with 10-year yields trading near Italian levels — about 85 basis points above German Bunds.

Speculation is growing that the continued instability could lead to early presidential elections. Macron, who cannot seek re-election in 2027, is believed to be weighing a strategic move to preserve his political influence, potentially setting the stage for a comeback in 2032 — a plan that could begin taking shape as early as 2026.

Gold and Dollar Benefit from Global Uncertainty

Gold has been one of the biggest winners amid recent political and financial turbulence, surpassing $4,000 per ounce and hitting a record high of $4,040. This pushed year-to-date gains to roughly 53%.

However, some analysts warn that gold’s dramatic outperformance — as the world’s leading safe-haven asset — could signal distortions in global market dynamics.

At the same time, the US dollar has continued its broad advance this week, reflecting a classic flight-to-safety pattern as cryptocurrencies reversed their recent rally.

US equities, meanwhile, traded with relative calm, supported by persistent investment flows into artificial intelligence, which have helped temper investor anxiety.

Still, several strategists note that a short-term correction in major US indices remains possible, particularly if the government shutdown drags on. Ironically, a few negative trading sessions could provide the political pressure needed to restart funding negotiations.

Busy Calendar Despite Lack of US Data

With key economic data releases halted due to the shutdown, market focus today turns to Federal Reserve officials’ remarks and the minutes of the September Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.

At least four Fed members — most of them hawkish — are expected to speak later today. The absence of dovish language could weigh on fragile market sentiment.

Nevertheless, markets are already pricing in a 95% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in late October. This suggests that even if the meeting minutes lean hawkish, traders may largely dismiss them and remain focused on the likelihood of two consecutive rate cuts in upcoming meetings.

Gold prices rose in the European market on Wednesday, extending gains for the fourth consecutive session and continuing to break records — surpassing the $4,000 mark for the first time in history.

The rally comes amid strong demand for the precious metal as a safe haven, driven by political developments in Japan and France, the ongoing US government shutdown, and growing expectations of additional interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.

Price Overview

• Gold Prices Today: Gold rose 1.1% to a record high of $4,027.30 an ounce, from an opening level of $3,984.97, after touching an intraday low of $3,983.35.

• On Tuesday, gold settled up 0.6%, marking its third consecutive daily gain amid heightened global political uncertainty.

Strong Demand

Demand for gold has surged this week, fueled by political turbulence in Japan and France, as investors flocked to the safe-haven asset amid rising uncertainty in the world’s major economies.

A senior White House official said the Trump administration would begin large-scale layoffs of federal employees if President Donald Trump determines that negotiations with congressional Democrats to end the partial government shutdown “yield no results.”

US Interest Rates

• Federal Reserve member Stephen Miran once again urged a sharp path of rate cuts, citing the influence of the Trump administration’s economic policies.

• Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid, however, said he was unwilling to cut rates further, emphasizing that the central bank should focus on the “extremely high inflation risk” rather than apparent labor market weakness.

• According to CME’s FedWatch Tool, market pricing currently indicates a 95% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the October meeting, and a 5% probability of holding rates unchanged.

• To reassess these probabilities, investors are closely monitoring the resumption of key US economic data releases and upcoming comments from Federal Reserve officials.

Gold Outlook

• Vivek Dhar, head of commodities research at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, said in a note that the latest surge in gold prices “likely reflects safe-haven demand linked to the US government shutdown and the resignation of French Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu.”

• Goldman Sachs raised its year-end 2026 gold price forecast to $4,900 per ounce from $4,300 on Monday, citing strong inflows into Western exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and sustained central bank purchases.

SPDR Gold Trust

Holdings at SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed ETF, fell by 0.02 metric tons on Tuesday — the fourth consecutive daily decline — bringing total holdings down to 1,013.15 metric tons.