Bitcoin fell on Monday, extending losses after posting its first October decline since 2018, as persistent concerns over a slowing global economy and deteriorating US–China trade relations weighed on investor appetite for riskier assets.

The world’s largest cryptocurrency recorded sharp losses in October, significantly underperforming other risk assets following a sudden early-month sell-off. Bitcoin was down 2.5% at $107,810 as of 9:32 a.m. ET (14:32 GMT).

Bitcoin Ends Its Seven-Year “Uptober” Streak

Bitcoin lost around 5% in October, marking its first negative October since 2018—a month traditionally known for strong crypto performance, often dubbed “Uptober.”

Investor sentiment across digital-asset markets soured after the early-October crash, which sent Bitcoin tumbling to about $104,000. Unlike equities and other risk assets, cryptocurrencies have struggled to recover from those losses.

The recent US–China trade deal failed to lift digital-asset prices, while the Federal Reserve’s hawkish tone added further pressure to the crypto space.

Coinbase Premium Turns Negative

Data from Coinglass showed that the price premium of Bitcoin on Coinbase Global Inc. (NASDAQ: COIN) turned negative in late October.

Bitcoin typically trades at a premium on Coinbase, reflecting stronger US investor demand. The shift into negative territory suggests weakening sentiment among both retail and institutional investors in the United States.

This coincided with net outflows from US-listed crypto exchange-traded funds (ETFs)—a sign of declining demand and mounting selling pressure, often seen during prolonged market weakness.

Strategy Adds $45 Million in Bitcoin Holdings

Software firm Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) announced that it purchased an additional 397 Bitcoins between October 27 and November 2 for about $45.6 million, at an average price of roughly $114,771 per coin, according to a filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on Monday.

Following the acquisition, the company now holds approximately 641,205 Bitcoins, valued at around $69 billion.

Executive Chairman Michael Saylor said the firm’s total acquisition cost amounts to roughly $47.5 billion, representing an average purchase price of $74,057 per Bitcoin.

Altcoins Extend October Losses

Broader crypto markets mirrored Bitcoin’s decline, with major altcoins posting steep losses in October.

Ether (ETH), the second-largest cryptocurrency, dropped 3.1% to $3,719.89, while Binance Coin (BNB) slid nearly 6% to $1,018.59.

XRP, Solana, and Cardano all fell between 4% and 5%.

Among meme coins, Dogecoin (DOGE) lost more than 5%, while $TRUMP gained 1.6% after erasing most of its recent rally.

Oil prices were little changed on Monday, holding steady despite reports that the OPEC+ alliance plans to halt further production increases, as markets remained weighed down by oversupply concerns and weak manufacturing data across Asia.

Brent crude futures slipped by one cent, or 0.02%, to $64.76 a barrel by 09:59 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures fell three cents, or 0.05%, to $60.95 a barrel.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, known collectively as OPEC+, agreed on Sunday to a modest output hike of 137,000 barrels per day for December, while freezing any additional increases through the first quarter of next year.

Both Brent and WTI posted losses of more than 2% in October—their third consecutive monthly decline—after touching five-month lows on October 20.

Warren Patterson, Head of Commodities Strategy at ING, said the OPEC+ decision signaled acknowledgment of “a significant market surplus, especially heading into early next year.” He added, “There’s still considerable uncertainty about the size of that surplus, which will depend largely on how US sanctions affect Russian oil flows.”

Helima Croft, Head of Global Commodity Strategy at RBC Capital Markets, noted that Russia remains “a destabilizing factor” in the supply equation following US sanctions on state-controlled oil giants Rosneft and Lukoil, as well as repeated attacks on Russian energy infrastructure amid the ongoing war in Ukraine.

On Sunday, a Ukrainian drone strike targeted the Tuapse oil terminal—one of Russia’s key Black Sea export hubs—causing a fire and damage to a vessel at the port.

A Reuters poll showed analysts largely unchanged in their oil price forecasts, as increased OPEC+ production and weakening demand are offset by geopolitical risks threatening global supply. Estimates for the global supply surplus ranged between 190,000 and 3 million barrels per day.

Meanwhile, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported on Friday that US crude oil output rose to a record 13.8 million barrels per day in August.

In Asia, business surveys for October showed continued headwinds across major manufacturing sectors, pointing to slowing industrial demand in the region—the world’s largest oil-consuming market.

The US Dollar Index held near a three-month high on Monday against a basket of major currencies, as investors awaited key economic data this week that is expected to offer only limited insight into the health of the US economy, while reinforcing the Federal Reserve’s cautious stance on monetary policy.

The Fed cut interest rates last week by 25 basis points, as widely expected, but Chair Jerome Powell warned that the move could be the final cut this year, citing risks in proceeding further without a clearer economic picture.

If not for the ongoing US government shutdown, this week’s releases—including the nonfarm payrolls report—could have helped shape that picture. With official data delayed, investors will instead rely on private-sector employment figures from ADP and ISM manufacturing data, though both are seen having only a muted impact on markets.

Several regional Fed presidents voiced discomfort on Friday with the latest easing move, while market bets now point to roughly a 68% chance of another rate cut in December—down sharply from before last week’s meeting.

The Japanese yen fell to 154.1 per dollar, near an eight-and-a-half-month low, weighed down by widening interest rate differentials between Japan and the US. The euro slipped 0.16% to 1.1513, its weakest level in three months, while the British pound dropped 0.3% to 1.3133.

The US Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against six major peers, rose 0.16% to 99.89—its highest since August 1—after trading within a tight 96–100 range over the past six months.

Lee Hardman, senior currency analyst at MUFG Bank, said, “The focus now is whether the index can break out of this range and whether the current rally is sustainable,” adding that the repricing of more hawkish Fed expectations remains the key driver of dollar strength.

Both the yen and the pound face unique pressures. Although Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda delivered his strongest signal yet last week of a possible rate hike in December, markets reacted cautiously given the bank’s slow-moving stance, particularly as the Fed turns more hawkish.

These dynamics have intensified pressure on the yen, prompting Japanese authorities to issue verbal interventions to stem the slide. The yen is now approaching levels where the government previously stepped in to support the currency in 2022 and 2024.

Hardman added, “The yen may start to find some support as markets near potential intervention levels, though that alone won’t be enough to change the broader trend.”

The yen also hovered near a record low against the euro, last trading around 177.4 per euro.

Meanwhile, the pound remained weak as expectations rose for another Bank of England rate cut this year following weaker-than-expected inflation data last month. The central bank meets this week, with some analysts anticipating a 25-basis-point cut, though market pricing suggests only a one-in-three chance.

Elsewhere, the Australian dollar edged up 0.1% to 0.6554, supported by expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia will hold rates steady on Tuesday after a stronger core inflation reading. The US dollar also gained 0.34% against the Swiss franc to 0.8072—its highest since mid-August.

Gold prices rose in European trading on Monday at the start of the week, supported by psychological buying around the $4,000 per ounce level. Gains, however, remained limited as the US dollar extended its rally to a three-month high against a basket of major currencies.

More hawkish remarks from several Federal Reserve officials have dampened expectations for a rate cut in December, as markets await fresh economic data from the United States later this week.

Price Overview

• Gold prices rose 0.65% to $4,028.04 per ounce, up from an opening of $4,002.40, after touching a session low of $3,964.63.

• On Friday, gold fell 0.6%, resuming losses that had paused the day before amid a brief rebound from a three-week low of $3,886.64.

• For October, gold gained 3.75%, marking its third consecutive monthly increase and a new all-time high of $4,381.73 per ounce, driven by safe-haven demand.

US Dollar

The US dollar index rose 0.2% on Monday, extending its gains for a fourth straight session to reach a two-month high of 99.92 points, reflecting continued strength in the greenback.

The dollar’s advance was fueled by renewed demand as a preferred investment, particularly after growing uncertainty about whether the Federal Reserve will deliver another rate cut in December.

US Interest Rates

• Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said Friday that the Fed should not have lowered rates at its most recent meeting.

• Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack also opposed last week’s rate cut.

• Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic stated Friday that a December rate cut is “not a given.”

• Following these remarks, CME’s FedWatch tool showed market odds of a 25-basis-point rate cut in December falling from 70% to 63%, while expectations for holding rates steady rose from 30% to 37%.

• Investors are closely watching upcoming US economic data and further Fed commentary to reassess these probabilities.

Outlook for Gold

Kelvin Wong, senior market analyst for Asia-Pacific at OANDA, noted that “gold lacks upside momentum due to certain technical factors, while the US dollar remains resilient, weighing on bullion.”

He added that “safe-haven demand has eased at this stage as trade tensions between the US and China have subsided.”

SPDR Gold Trust

Holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, declined by 1.15 metric tons on Friday, bringing total holdings to 1,039.20 metric tons.