Institutional and corporate demand remains strong

Bitcoin closed at $109,203 on Sunday, marking the highest weekly close on record, driven by strong institutional demand.

According to SoSoValue data, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $769.60 million in inflows last week, the fourth consecutive week of positive flows since mid-June. If this pace continues or accelerates, Bitcoin may be able to reach or surpass its previous all-time highs.

Corporate demand also remains strong. Japanese investment firm Metaplanet announced on Monday the purchase of an additional 2,205 BTC, bringing its total holdings to 15,555 BTC. Meanwhile, Blockchain Group confirmed the acquisition of 116 BTC, bringing its total to 1,904 BTC.

Trump administration may extend tariff freeze to August 1

Markets began the week in risk-off mode as investors assessed the latest developments surrounding U.S. tariff policy.

According to The Kobeissi Letter on Sunday, Treasury Secretary Scott Besant said President Donald Trump will impose “April 2-level” tariffs on countries that have not signed trade agreements with the U.S., starting August 1. This suggests a possible extension of the current tariff freeze from July 9 to August 1.

This news may have a mixed impact on risk assets like Bitcoin: while a delay may relieve immediate pressure, it also prolongs market uncertainty.

Meanwhile, U.S. macroeconomic data last week showed non-farm payrolls (NFP) increased by 147,000 in June, beating expectations of 110,000 and up from 144,000 in May. Unemployment also fell unexpectedly to 4.1%, compared to expectations of 4.3% and May’s reading of 4.2%.

This data weakened expectations of an imminent and aggressive rate cut by the Federal Reserve, reinforcing a cautious outlook for upcoming policy moves.

Traders now await the release of the Fed’s June meeting minutes on Wednesday for clearer signals on the next monetary policy step.

Musk’s “America Party” embraces Bitcoin

Elon Musk announced that his new political party, the America Party, will support Bitcoin.

When asked on X whether the party would embrace Bitcoin, Musk responded: “Fiat currency is hopeless, so yes.”

Bitcoin price outlook: Will new highs follow?

Bitcoin rebounded on Sunday after retesting the upper edge of a previous consolidation zone at $108,355. On Monday, BTC is trading near the $109,000 mark.

If upward momentum continues, the rally may extend toward the all-time high of $111,980 recorded on May 22.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart shows a reading of 57, above the neutral 50 mark, signaling bullish momentum.

The MACD also displays a bullish crossover, with rising green histogram bars above the neutral level, reflecting a positive trend.

However, if Bitcoin faces a pullback and closes below the $108,355 support, the decline may extend to test the lower boundary of the previous consolidation zone at $105,333, which aligns closely with the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $105,158—making this area a key support zone for Bitcoin.

Oil prices rebounded on Monday, shrugging off the impact of a larger-than-expected production increase by OPEC+ for August and growing concerns over U.S. tariff policy, as tightness in the physical market helped offset earlier losses.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, known collectively as OPEC+, agreed on Saturday to raise output by 548,000 barrels per day in August. This increase exceeds the previous monthly hikes of 411,000 barrels per day implemented over the past three months.

Brent crude fell earlier to a low of $67.22 per barrel but recovered to rise 40 cents, or 0.6%, to $68.70 by 10:18 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained 4 cents to $67.04, after having dipped earlier to $65.40.

Giovanni Staunovo, an analyst at UBS, commented, “The oil market remains undersupplied for now, which indicates it can absorb more barrels.”

Analysts at RBC Capital, led by Helima Croft, noted in a memo that the latest OPEC+ decision would return around 80% of the 2.2 million barrels per day in voluntary cuts to the market. These cuts had previously been implemented by eight OPEC member states.

However, they added that actual output increases so far have fallen short of targets, with Saudi Arabia being the primary driver behind the recent gains.

In a move reflecting confidence in global demand, Saudi Arabia on Sunday raised its official selling price for its flagship Arab Light crude to Asia for August to the highest level in four months.

Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs predicted that OPEC+ would announce a final output increase of 550,000 barrels per day for September during its next meeting on August 3.

At the same time, oil faced pressure after U.S. officials hinted at a potential delay in the implementation of new tariffs, though no specifics were provided regarding the scope of the adjustments.

The uncertainty surrounding these measures has unsettled investors, who fear that elevated tariffs could dampen economic activity and consequently reduce oil demand.

Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst at Phillip Nova, said, “Trump tariff concerns remain the dominant theme in the second half of 2025, while a weaker U.S. dollar currently offers the only real support to oil prices.”

The US dollar fell on Monday, remaining near multi-year lows against major currencies as traders awaited any trade-related developments ahead of the Wednesday deadline set by President Donald Trump to begin enforcing new tariffs.

Most of the United States' trade partners are expected to face significant tariff increases once the 90-day "Liberation Day" deadline expires. Trump stated on Sunday that the new tariffs would take effect starting August 1.

The president added that his administration is close to finalizing several trade deals in the coming days and would announce later on Monday a list of around 12 countries that will receive letters detailing the new elevated tariffs.

Trump also threatened an additional 10% tariff on countries he said "align themselves with the anti-American policies of the BRICS group."

So far, only the United Kingdom, China, and Vietnam have reached trade agreements with the Trump administration. Talks with Japan and the European Union have progressed slowly, raising market concerns that Tokyo and Brussels may fail to finalize agreements before the deadline.

Impact on Risk-Sensitive Currencies

The uncertainty surrounding the new tariffs particularly affected risk-sensitive currencies like the Australian and New Zealand dollars, as investors awaited upcoming monetary policy decisions from both countries in the next two days.

James Neviton, chief FX trader at Convera, wrote in a client note: “Market volatility seems inevitable once the deadline officially ends and the new tariff levels are announced.”

He added: “However, the impact may be more muted this time. Unlike previous announcements that surprised markets, the current proposals have been largely anticipated. Markets are also pricing in the possibility of another deadline extension.”

Currency option data suggests markets do not expect a major return of volatility ahead of the deadline, reflecting investor expectations for a potential extension.

Currency and Market Performance

The U.S. dollar held steady against the Swiss franc at 0.7959, near its July 1 low of 0.7869 — the lowest since January 2015.

The euro fell 0.3% to $1.1750.

The dollar rose 0.38% against the Japanese yen to 145.15 yen, recovering earlier losses.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the currency against six major peers, rose 0.26% to 97.223, but remained near last week’s three-and-a-half-year low of 96.373.

This year’s decline in the dollar reflects a broader investor reassessment of its safe-haven status, especially amid rising concerns that the U.S. may not be immune to a global economic slowdown as once believed.

The British pound fell 0.3% to $1.36, still near its July 1 peak of $1.3787 — the strongest level since October 2021.

The Australian dollar dropped 0.7% to $0.6507, continuing its retreat from an eight-month high of $0.6590.

The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to cut interest rates by a quarter-point on Tuesday amid easing inflation and uncertain economic prospects.

Tony Sycamore, a market analyst at IG, wrote in a note: “These factors, along with ongoing tariff and trade concerns, have erased any hesitation the RBA might have had about a tight labor market.”

He added that the RBA's forward guidance is likely to “lean dovish,” leaving room for further rate cuts later this year.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to keep rates unchanged on Wednesday, although most economists anticipate one additional quarter-point cut later in 2025.

The New Zealand dollar fell 0.7% to $0.6008.

Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar gained 0.4% against the Canadian dollar to reach 1.366 CAD and rose to 18.67 pesos against the Mexican peso.

Gold prices fell in the European market on Monday, heading for their second loss in the last three sessions and hitting their lowest level in a week, as the metal approached a drop below \$3,300 per ounce due to strong performance by the U.S. dollar in the foreign exchange market.

U.S. President Donald Trump indicated progress in multiple trade agreements and announced an extension of tariff exemptions for several countries, easing fears of a potential recession in the U.S. economy.

The Price

Gold prices fell by 1.1% to $3,300.76 per ounce — the lowest in a week — down from the opening price of $3,337.22, after hitting an intraday high of $3,342.70.

On Friday, gold prices rose by about 0.35%, supported by thin liquidity due to the U.S. Independence Day holiday.

Last week, gold prices posted a 1.9% gain — their first weekly increase in the past three weeks — thanks to renewed buying at lower levels.

U.S. Dollar

The U.S. Dollar Index jumped about 0.5% on Monday to 97.43, its highest level in two weeks, reflecting broad gains by the greenback against a basket of major and minor currencies.

As is well-known, rising levels of the U.S. dollar tend to make dollar-priced gold bullion less attractive to buyers using other currencies.

President Donald Trump stated on Sunday that the United States is close to finalizing several trade deals in the coming days and will notify other countries of higher tariff rates by July 9, with the new tariffs taking effect on August 1.

Trump had initially announced in April a base tariff rate of 10% on most countries, with additional duties reaching up to 50%. He later postponed the effective date for all tariffs — except the 10% base — until July 9, giving most affected countries a three-week grace period.

U.S. Interest Rates

Labor market data released last week showed that the U.S. economy added 147,000 new jobs in June, exceeding expectations of 111,000. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1% from 4.2% in May, while forecasts had pointed to a rise to 4.3%.

Following the data, the CME Group’s FedWatch tool showed that the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in the July meeting dropped from 25% to 5%, while the likelihood of keeping rates unchanged rose from 75% to 95%.

For the September meeting, rate-cut odds fell from 95% to 70%, while expectations for no change increased from 5% to 30%.

Gold Price Outlook

Kelvin Wong, market analyst for Asia-Pacific at OANDA, said: “This short-term exemption (from the U.S.) is causing weakness in gold prices during today’s session.”

Wong added: “I expect another round of price movement around the $3,320 level, then we may reach the resistance level at $3,360 — a short-term barrier.”

SPDR Gold Trust

Holdings at SPDR Gold Trust — the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund — were unchanged on Friday for the second consecutive day, with total holdings remaining at 947.66 metric tons, the lowest level since June 18.