Bitcoin prices climbed on Thursday but remained below the all-time high briefly reached the day before, as profit-taking and renewed concerns over US tariffs dampened market enthusiasm.

The world’s largest cryptocurrency rose 2.1% to $110,961.70 as of 01:48 a.m. ET (05:48 GMT).

On Wednesday, Bitcoin briefly surged to a historic peak of $111,988.20, before paring gains as investors took profits near record levels.

Institutional Demand Pushes Bitcoin to New Highs

Bitcoin’s latest rally has been fueled by increasing institutional allocations, including treasury purchases and inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs managed by major investment firms.

MicroStrategy (NASDAQ:MSTR) remains the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, but new players have entered the space. GameStop Corp (NYSE:GME) announced this week that it had made Bitcoin purchases with board approval.

Earlier this week, Trump Media (NASDAQ:DJT) filed a request with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for a new ETF named “Crypto Blue Chip,” adding to two previous ETF filings submitted earlier in July.

These structural tailwinds—including ETF inflows, corporate treasury adoption, and supportive US policy narratives—have strengthened Bitcoin’s position as an institutional-grade asset.

Trump’s Tariff Threats Cap Bitcoin Momentum

While Bitcoin had remained range-bound in recent sessions, it broke higher on Wednesday. However, concerns over potential US tariff hikes ahead of the August 1 deadline caused prices to pull back again.

Looking ahead, investors are turning their attention to “Crypto Week,” which begins July 14. US lawmakers are expected to advance at least three major bills aimed at regulating digital assets.

Bitcoin ETF Inflows Continue

Momentum in Bitcoin (BTC-USD) remains driven by growing institutional interest. Spot Bitcoin ETFs are nearing $150 billion in total assets under management.

BlackRock now holds over 700,000 Bitcoin.

MicroStrategy is approaching 600,000 Bitcoin.

Japan’s Metaplanet, which has adopted a Bitcoin-focused treasury strategy, has seen strong returns on the Tokyo Stock Exchange.

Technical Indicators Remain Bullish, Eyes on $130K

Technical outlook for Bitcoin remains bullish, with analysts eyeing a potential breakout above $130,000, supported by strong price patterns and long-term momentum.

Veteran trader Peter Brandt noted that Bitcoin is in a critical phase of its bull cycle, projecting a peak between $130,000 and $150,000 by the end of 2024.

He added that Bitcoin's cycles often align with “halving” events, where mining rewards are reduced, limiting supply and driving further price appreciation.

Oil prices slipped modestly on Thursday as investors assessed the potential impact of newly proposed US tariffs on global economic growth and demand for energy.

During early trading, Brent crude futures fell by 23 cents, or 0.3%, to $69.96 a barrel as of 09:04 GMT. Meanwhile, US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude dropped by 32 cents, or 0.5%, to $68.06 per barrel.

Trump Threatens Brazil with Punitive Tariffs

President Donald Trump has threatened Brazil—the largest economy in Latin America—with a 50% punitive tariff on its exports to the US, following a public rift with Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.

Trump also announced plans to impose new tariffs on copper, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals. His administration sent new tariff letters to countries including the Philippines and Iraq, adding to more than a dozen letters sent earlier this week to major US commodity suppliers such as South Korea and Japan.

Markets Cautious Despite Trade Escalation

Harry Tchilinguirian, head of research at Onyx Capital Group, commented that “markets are largely in a wait-and-see mode, given the unpredictable nature of political decision-making and the administration’s flexibility on tariffs.”

He noted that Trump’s previous track record of backtracking on tariff decisions has made markets less reactive to these announcements.

Fed Still Worried About Inflation

Federal Reserve officials remain concerned about inflationary pressures stemming from tariffs. Minutes from the central bank’s June 17–18 meeting showed that only “a few” members believed a rate cut could be appropriate soon, possibly starting this month.

Higher interest rates typically raise borrowing costs and can reduce oil demand.

Weaker Dollar Supports Prices

Offering some price support, the US dollar weakened during Asian trading Thursday. Kelvin Wong, senior analyst at OANDA, explained: “Since oil is priced in dollars, a weaker greenback makes it cheaper for holders of other currencies, boosting demand and prices.”

US Fuel Demand Shows Signs of Recovery

US Energy Information Administration (EIA) data released Wednesday showed a rise in crude stockpiles but declines in gasoline and distillate inventories over the past week.

Notably, gasoline demand rose by 6% to 9.2 million barrels per day last week, signaling a recovery in domestic fuel consumption.

Air Travel and Global Trade Continue Expanding

A client note from JPMorgan stated that global daily flight activity reached 107,600 flights during the first eight days of July—a record high. Chinese flight volumes hit a five-month peak, and port and shipping activity showed signs of continued global trade expansion compared to last year.

The note added, “Since the beginning of the year, average global oil demand growth is at 0.97 million barrels per day, in line with our forecast of 1 million bpd.”

Doubts Over Actual OPEC+ Output Increase

On the supply side, IG analyst Tony Sycamore noted skepticism over whether OPEC+’s latest quota increases will result in real production growth.

“Some members are already exceeding their official quotas, while others like Russia are unable to meet their targets due to damaged oil infrastructure,” he said.

OPEC+ is preparing to approve another significant production increase for September, which would complete the phase-out of voluntary cuts by eight members and implement a quota increase for the UAE.

The US dollar edged lower on Thursday morning, pulling back from a two-week high against major peers, as traders appeared largely unfazed by President Donald Trump’s newest round of tariff announcements.

As of 04:20 Eastern Time (08:20 GMT), the US Dollar Index—which measures the currency against a basket of six major rivals—was down 0.1% at 97.107, after hitting its highest level since June 25 during the previous session.

Trump Expands Tariff Campaign

President Trump once again stirred trade tensions by issuing new letters detailing tariff rates on imports from seven additional countries, adding to the 14 nations already notified earlier in the week.

He also confirmed a 50% tariff on imports from Brazil following a dispute with the country’s president and reiterated a similar tariff on copper imports, reinforcing earlier threats.

Despite the aggressive measures, currency markets remained largely steady—except for the Brazilian real—as traders continued to expect that deals with major economies such as India and the European Union could still be reached.

“The dollar is slightly offered this morning but remains largely on the sidelines amid the tariff chaos,” analysts at ING wrote in a note.

They added, “The question is, what would it take for the dollar to react meaningfully to Trump’s tariff maneuvers? We estimate the threshold remains high for now, but it may lower as we approach August 1. If there’s no tangible progress with key trading partners by then, it may become harder to ignore the tariff escalation.”

Economic Data Remains the Key Driver

ING emphasized that economic indicators—especially inflation and labor market data—continue to be the primary driver of dollar movements, particularly following the latest Federal Reserve minutes, which reaffirmed a cautious, hawkish-leaning stance from the FOMC.

Today’s focus will be on jobless claims, while next week’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is expected to have a more significant impact on currency markets than any trade headlines, ING said.

Euro Stable Amid Trade Deal Hopes

In Europe, the euro rose 0.1% against the dollar to 1.1731, as volatility in the single currency eased amid growing optimism for a trade agreement between the EU and the US.

European Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič said Wednesday that good progress was being made on drafting a framework deal and that an agreement could be reached within days.

“Reports suggest that the draft EU proposal may include asymmetrical tariffs (likely a base rate of 10%), indicating a de-escalatory path,” ING noted. “This is likely already priced in, so unless there are major surprises in the details, EUR/USD may remain range-bound between 1.1700 and 1.1750 for now.”

British Pound Gains After Trade Pact

The British pound climbed 0.2% to 1.3608 after the United Kingdom signed a trade deal with the Trump administration, bolstering sterling sentiment.

Brazilian Real Plunges on Tariff Threat

In other currencies, the dollar dipped slightly against the Japanese yen to 146.29 and eased 0.1% against the Chinese yuan to 7.1775. Most Asian currencies held steady as investors processed the latest trade developments.

However, the US dollar surged 2.4% against the Brazilian real to 5.5766 after Trump vowed to impose a 50% tariff on all imports from Brazil.

Sources said the move was part of Trump’s angry response to what he perceives as mistreatment of his political ally, former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro.

Gold prices rose in European trading on Thursday, extending gains for a second consecutive session as the metal rebounded from a one-week low. The recovery pushed gold swiftly back above the $3,300 per ounce level, supported by weakness in the US dollar across currency markets.

Expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September strengthened after the release of the central bank’s latest meeting minutes, which reinforced speculation about a shift toward monetary easing before the end of the year.

The Price

Gold prices climbed by 0.5% to $3,329.54, up from the opening level of $3,313.55, after touching an intraday low at $3,313.55.

On Wednesday, gold settled 0.4% higher, marking its first gain in three sessions, after hitting a one-week low earlier in the day at $3,282.73 per ounce.

US Dollar

The US Dollar Index fell by more than 0.2% on Thursday, recording its second straight session of losses. The index retreated from a two-week high of 97.84, reflecting continued pressure on the greenback against both major and minor currencies.

Trump’s latest round of tariffs failed to rattle global markets, except in Brazil, where the threat of a 50% tax sent the Brazilian real down as much as 2.8% overnight.

Fed Rate Outlook

The minutes from the Fed’s most recent meeting revealed that most policymakers view interest rate cuts as appropriate later this year.

Following the release, CME Group’s FedWatch Tool showed a rise in the probability of a 25 basis point cut in July from 5% to 8%, while the odds of holding rates steady slipped from 95% to 92%.

Expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut in September jumped from 62% to 72%, while the likelihood of no change dropped from 38% to 28%.

Gold Outlook

Matt Simpson, senior analyst at City Index, commented: “It seems that the market’s reaction to tariff headlines is fading with each new development. We’ve reached tariff fatigue, and traders need a fresh catalyst to wake volatility from its slumber.”

SPDR Gold Holdings

Holdings at the SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, rose by approximately 0.86 metric tons on Wednesday, bringing the total to 947.37 metric tons. That marked a rebound from Tuesday’s 946.51 metric tons, the lowest level since June 17.