Bitcoin rose more than 2% over the past 24 hours, climbing back above $109,500 as traders positioned themselves ahead of Friday’s release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) — the week’s most closely watched economic event.

With most official economic data on hold due to the ongoing US government shutdown, investors expect the upcoming inflation report to be the only major indicator guiding markets this week.

Analysts at QCP Capital wrote in a Thursday report: “The only data point that really matters this week is Friday’s CPI, as it will be the sole reading the Federal Reserve sees before resuming its policy communications.”

The firm added that a softer-than-expected inflation reading could reinforce the “soft landing” narrative for the US economy and provide fresh momentum for Bitcoin prices.

“A 0.2% reading would support that narrative and keep Bitcoin’s upward trend intact,” the report said, noting that gold (GC=F) posted its biggest one-day drop since 2020 as the US dollar strengthened, while Bitcoin briefly spiked to $114,000 before pulling back.

Geopolitical Tensions Dominate, but Trade Talks Offer Hope

Despite persistent geopolitical tensions weighing on global risk appetite, reports of potential trade talks between Chinese President Xi Jinping and US President Donald Trump brought some relief to markets.

The two leaders are expected to meet on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in South Korea later this month, in a meeting investors hope could ease trade and security frictions in the region.

Diverging Views on Bitcoin’s Path

Bitcoin has declined since reaching a record high above $126,270 on October 6, 2025.

John Glover, Chief Investment Officer at Ledn, believes the rally is over.

“The Bitcoin bull run is done!” he told Yahoo Finance UK. “I think we’ve completed the five-wave advance and are now entering a bear market that could last through the end of 2026.”

Glover added that while a retest of $124,000 is possible, he expects prices to trade lower overall in the coming months.

“I’m looking for a major correction into the $70,000–$80,000 range — perhaps even lower — and the final target will become clearer as prices evolve over the next few months.”

Institutional Demand Could Fuel Renewed Optimism

On the other hand, Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise, said Bitcoin could see another leg higher if short-term selling pressure eases.

“If current sellers step back, allowing institutional demand to play a larger role, Bitcoin could mirror gold’s 2025 rally,” Hougan wrote in a research note this week.

He pointed out that gold has gained roughly 57% in 2025, driven by surging central bank purchases that have more than doubled since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war — from around 467 tons annually to 1,080 tons, according to Metals Focus.

Hougan said this level of buying nearly matches demand from gold exchange-traded products (ETPs), which helps explain why gold has outperformed Bitcoin this year.

“If central banks are the main engine behind gold’s rally, it’s only natural that Bitcoin hasn’t risen at the same pace,” he added.

Despite strong demand from spot Bitcoin ETFs and institutional investors, Hougan believes cautious sentiment continues to limit gains: “Bitcoin hasn’t yet reached $200,000 despite robust inflows, because price-sensitive investors keep selling into every 10%–15% rally.”

Oil prices surged by 5% on Thursday after the United States imposed new sanctions on Russian energy giants Rosneft and Lukoil over the war in Ukraine, extending the gains recorded in the previous session.

Brent crude futures rose by $3.39, or 5.4%, to $65.98 a barrel at 10:18 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) gained $3.31, or 5.7%, to $61.81 a barrel.

Ole Hansen, an analyst at Saxo Bank, said the US sanctions mean that refineries in China and India — the largest buyers of Russian oil — will now have to seek alternative suppliers to avoid being cut off from the Western banking system.

Washington reaffirmed its readiness to take further action, urging Moscow to agree immediately to a ceasefire in Ukraine. The UK had already imposed sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil last week, while the European Union approved its nineteenth sanctions package against Russia, which included a ban on imports of Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG).

Market Structure Shift and US Inventory Drop

The Brent crude forward curve shifted into backwardation, with the front-month contract trading $1.98 above the six-month delivery contract, reflecting tightening short-term supplies.

Following the announcement of US sanctions, Brent and WTI futures both jumped more than $2 a barrel, also supported by an unexpected drawdown in US crude inventories.

Giovanni Staunovo, an analyst at UBS, said the impact of the sanctions on oil markets depends largely on India’s response and whether Russia can find new buyers for its crude.

India has become the largest importer of discounted Russian oil since the start of the war in Ukraine, but private refiners are expected to sharply reduce purchases under the new sanctions, according to industry sources.

Sources added that Reliance Industries, India’s biggest buyer of Russian crude, plans to significantly scale back — or even halt — its Russian oil imports in the coming period.

Lingering Doubts Despite the Rally

Some analysts remain skeptical that the new sanctions will bring about a lasting shift in the oil market. Claudio Galimberti, an analyst at Rystad Energy, said: “So far, most of the sanctions imposed on Russia for more than three and a half years have failed to meaningfully curb its oil production or revenues.”

He added that concerns over potential oversupply — due to increased output from the OPEC+ alliance — continue to cap price gains, while UBS expects Brent to remain within a $60–70 per barrel trading range.

On the demand side, data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday showed that US crude, gasoline, and distillate inventories declined last week amid improved refinery activity and stronger domestic consumption.

The US dollar strengthened against most major currencies on Thursday, particularly the Japanese yen, as investors awaited the delayed release of key US inflation data (CPI) scheduled for Friday, amid ongoing concerns over trade tensions between Washington and Beijing.

The dollar rose 0.38% against the yen to ¥152.44, while the euro slipped slightly to $1.1604, remaining within its recent trading range.

Nick Rees, head of macro research at Monex Europe, said: “There’s a lot of uncertainty given the US government shutdown and the lack of data. Some traders are holding back, and there’s a clear sense of caution ahead of the inflation figures.”

He added that the CPI report will still be published despite the shutdown, allowing the US Social Security Administration to calculate its annual cost-of-living adjustment for 2026.

Fed Shifts Focus

Although the Federal Reserve has recently shifted its focus from inflation to the performance of the US labor market, inflation figures remain closely watched by markets.

Rees explained: “The data this time are important for different reasons than usual. While the Fed has moved past the inflation phase, these numbers still offer valuable insight into consumer spending and overall economic growth.”

Yen Under Pressure

Domestic factors have also weighed on the yen, which once again approached its seven-month low of ¥153.29 per dollar, last seen earlier in the week after the ruling party elected Sanae Takaichi — known for her expansionary fiscal and monetary stance — as its new leader.

With Takaichi now formally in office as Japan’s first female prime minister, investors are awaiting details of the anticipated stimulus package before taking new positions in the market.

Yutaka Miura, senior technical analyst at Mizuho Securities, said: “Buying based on hopes for Takaichi’s economic policies has run its course. The market is now in a phase of evaluating how feasible those policies will actually be.”

Sterling, Norwegian Krone, and Swiss Franc

The British pound held steady at $1.335 after recovering from Wednesday’s decline that followed weaker-than-expected inflation data, which increased market bets on another Bank of England rate cut later this year.

In Europe, Scandinavian currencies attracted attention as the Norwegian krone strengthened on higher oil prices. The dollar fell 0.3% against the krone to 9.9949, dipping below the 10-krone mark for the first time in two weeks, while the euro slid to a one-month low at 11.58 krone.

The Swiss franc showed little reaction to the release of the Swiss National Bank’s first-ever meeting minutes, easing slightly to 0.797 per dollar and 0.9248 per euro.

Despite the mild decline, the franc remains close to the 0.92 level against the euro — a threshold that Olivier Korber, derivatives strategist at Société Générale, said could prompt the SNB to intervene in the market to weaken the currency.

Korber noted in a research memo: “We believe the risk of intervention in the FX market is currently at its peak, so a near-term rebound in the EUR/CHF pair is quite possible.”

Gold prices fell in European trading on Thursday, extending losses for a third consecutive session and nearing a two-week low, with the metal at risk of losing its foothold above the $4,000 per-ounce mark due to the continued strength of the US dollar in foreign-exchange markets.

Investors are awaiting key US inflation data, scheduled for release later this week, for further clues about the path of interest rates.

Price Overview

• Today’s gold price: Spot gold fell 0.8% to $4,066.24, down from an opening level of $4,098.19, after reaching an intraday high of $4,129.66.

• On Wednesday, gold lost 0.65% for a second straight daily decline, touching a two-week low at $4,004.56 per ounce.

• The metal has entered a sharp correction phase after Tuesday’s plunge, which marked its biggest one-day drop in five years, as heavy profit-taking followed record highs near $4,381.73 per ounce.

US Dollar

The US dollar index rose more than 0.2% on Thursday, resuming gains after a brief pause the previous session, reflecting continued strength of the greenback against major and minor currencies.

A stronger dollar makes gold, which is priced in US dollars, less attractive to buyers holding other currencies. The dollar’s rise comes as investors continue to view it as the most appealing asset at the moment, particularly amid growing expectations that major central banks in the UK, Japan, Canada, and Australia will shift toward more accommodative policies to support their slowing economies.

US Interest Rates

• According to CME’s FedWatch tool, markets are currently pricing in a 97% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the Federal Reserve’s October meeting, with just a 3% chance of no change.

• To reassess these probabilities, investors are closely watching the release of US consumer inflation data for September, expected Friday, though publication could be delayed to next week.

Outlook for Gold

Brian Lan, managing director at Singapore-based Gold Silver Central, said: “We’ve seen a natural correction after the recent rally in gold prices, and there is still some downward pressure. We expect prices to consolidate before continuing their upward trend.”

Lan added: “At this stage, we remain optimistic about gold in the long term, but short-term investors should be cautious given the elevated volatility.”

SPDR Gold Trust Holdings

Holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, fell by 6.29 metric tons on Wednesday to 1,052.37 metric tons, down from 1,058.66 metric tons — the highest level since June 24, 2022.