Bitcoin rose during Asian trading on Monday morning, amid optimism over a series of US legislative moves aimed at regulating the cryptocurrency sector, despite continued investor caution.

The world’s largest cryptocurrency was last traded up 0.6% at $119,001.6, as of 02:25 a.m. Eastern Time (06:25 GMT).

The token had reached record levels above $123,000 last week but has since pulled back below $120,000 and is now consolidating near that level.

Legislative Progress in the US… But Investor Caution Remains

Last week, US President Donald Trump signed the “GENIUS Act,” which establishes a federal regulatory framework for issuing stablecoins.

The law requires stablecoin issuers to hold reserves in liquid assets such as US dollars or Treasury bonds, and to provide monthly disclosures. This move is considered a key step toward legitimizing the $260+ billion stablecoin market and more fully integrating it into the financial system.

Alongside the GENIUS Act, the US House of Representatives also passed two other major bills:

- The CLARITY Act, which aims to determine whether digital tokens fall under the jurisdiction of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

- The Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act, which prohibits the Federal Reserve from issuing a central bank digital currency (CBDC) without explicit congressional approval.

These three pieces of legislation formed a unified regulatory push during what has been dubbed “Digital Assets Week” in the United States, aimed at reshaping crypto sector regulation.

Despite this legislative momentum, investors remain cautious. The GENIUS Act requires the US Treasury Department to develop detailed implementing rules before it becomes fully enforceable—a process that could take several months.

Additionally, the Senate has yet to begin discussions on the two House-passed bills, leaving the broader regulatory outlook uncertain.

Bitcoin Moves Sideways After Hitting a New Record

Bitcoin posted a new all-time high of $123,218 on Monday before entering a sideways trading pattern between $116,000 and $120,000. As of the latest update Monday morning, the token is trading near $117,800.

If Bitcoin breaks below the lower bound of this consolidation zone at $116,000 on a daily close, the decline may extend toward its 50-day Exponential Moving Average (50 EMA), currently located at $110,297.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart has dropped to 64 after falling from the overbought level of 70 last week, signaling a weakening of bullish momentum. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is close to forming a bearish crossover on the daily chart. If confirmed on a daily basis, this would produce a sell signal and mark the start of downward momentum.

Conversely, if Bitcoin closes above the upper bound of the consolidation zone at $120,000 on a daily basis, it could reinforce the bullish trend and pave the way for a return to the $123,218 record high—and possibly beyond.

Oil prices edged lower on Monday amid expectations that the latest European sanctions on Russian oil would have limited impact on supply, while ongoing US tariffs continued to raise concerns about demand.

Brent crude futures fell by 38 cents, or 0.55%, to $68.90 per barrel as of 09:25 GMT, after closing down 0.35% on Friday. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude slipped by 30 cents, or 0.45%, to $67.04 per barrel, after falling 0.3% in the previous session.

On Friday, the European Union approved its eighteenth sanctions package against Russia over the war in Ukraine, which also targeted India’s Nayara Energy—a refiner and exporter of petroleum products derived from Russian crude.

Harry Tchilinguirian of Onyx Capital Group said: “The latest round of European sanctions is unlikely to shift the oil market balance significantly. That’s why we’re not seeing a strong market reaction.” He added: “The Russians have demonstrated a high capacity to circumvent these types of sanctions.”

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Friday that Russia has developed a kind of "immunity" to Western sanctions.

The EU sanctions followed threats from US President Donald Trump last week to impose penalties on buyers of Russian exports unless Moscow agrees to a peace deal within 50 days.

Analysts at ING Bank noted that the only component of the package likely to have a tangible effect is the ban on importing refined petroleum products made from Russian oil in third countries, though they added that enforcement and monitoring could be difficult.

Elsewhere, Iran—another oil producer under sanctions—is preparing to hold nuclear talks with Britain, France, and Germany in Istanbul on Friday, according to a spokesperson for Iran’s foreign ministry on Monday. The announcement comes after the three European nations warned that failure to resume negotiations would lead to renewed international sanctions on Tehran.

In the United States, Baker Hughes reported on Friday that the number of active oil rigs fell by two to 422 last week, marking the lowest level since September 2021.

US tariffs on EU imports are set to take effect on August 1, though US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said on Sunday he remains confident that the country can reach a trade agreement with the bloc.

Tony Sycamore, market analyst at IG, said: “Tariff-related concerns will continue to weigh on the market as the August 1 deadline approaches, though some support could come from inventory data if it shows signs of tight supply.”

He added: “It looks like the market is heading for a trading range between $64 and $70 over the coming week.”

It is worth noting that Brent crude futures have recently traded between a low of $66.34 per barrel and a high of $71.53, following a ceasefire agreement reached on June 24 that ended a 12-day war between Israel and Iran.

The British pound posted a slight gain against the dollar and euro on Monday, but remained near multi-week lows against both currencies, as investors continued to focus on Bank of England policy and the UK's deteriorating fiscal outlook.

Sterling rose by 0.3% against the dollar to reach $1.3452, slightly above its eight-week low of $1.33655 recorded last week.

UK economic data last week was generally mixed—while the labor market showed signs of further slowdown, consumer inflation unexpectedly rose to its highest level in over a year.

Despite that data, investors are still almost fully pricing in a quarter-point interest rate cut by the Bank of England at its upcoming meeting on August 7, with total expected cuts reaching 50 basis points by year-end.

Sterling also gained around 0.2% against the euro, reaching 86.575 pence per euro, after touching a 14-week low last week.

Currency strategists at Goldman Sachs wrote in a note: “We believe the rise in the UK’s fiscal risk premium is the main driver of the euro’s recent outperformance against the pound.”

The UK remains in a fragile fiscal position, which worsened earlier this month after the government faced a major rebellion within its own party against welfare reform plans, raising doubts about its ability to reduce spending.

Many economists and analysts believe the government will be forced to raise taxes by billions of pounds later this year to comply with fiscal rules, especially amid slowing economic growth.

Jane Foley, Head of FX Strategy at Rabobank, said: “Sterling’s struggle to keep up with the euro’s performance this year reflects a shift in market optimism toward Germany and the eurozone.”

Foley added: “Given the UK’s fiscal concerns, we continue to favor buying the euro against the pound on dips.”

Meanwhile, Deloitte said on Monday that its consumer confidence index fell to its lowest level since Q1 2024, reflecting growing concerns about job security and income growth.

Retail sales data is due on Friday and may offer a clearer picture of consumer sentiment, while preliminary results of the purchasing managers’ index (PMI) survey on business activity are expected Thursday.

As for the US dollar, its index (which measures performance against a basket of major currencies) fell by 0.2% to 98.2 points as of 11:32 GMT, after reaching a high of 98.5 and a low of 98.1.

Gold prices rose in the European market on Monday, continuing to move in positive territory for the second consecutive day, supported by the decline in US dollar levels in the foreign exchange market.

Investors are closely monitoring developments in US trade talks, awaiting any potential catalysts that could move the market—including further signals about US interest rate cuts in the second half of this year.

The Price

• Gold prices today: Gold rose by 0.65% to ($3,370.84), from the opening level of ($3,349.84), after recording a low of ($3,345.13).

• At Friday’s settlement, gold prices rose by 0.35%, marking the second gain in the past three days, as the upward momentum in the US dollar paused.

• Last week, gold lost about 0.2%, marking its first weekly decline in the past three weeks, due to a correction and profit-taking from a three-week high of $3,377.47 per ounce.

The US Dollar

The US Dollar Index fell by 0.3% on Monday, extending losses for the second consecutive session and moving away from a three-week high, reflecting continued weakness in the dollar against a basket of major and minor currencies.

Aside from profit-taking, the dollar is weakening following comments from several Federal Reserve officials about the potential for a rate cut in July.

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller stated on Friday that he favors a rate cut at the July meeting, believing that tariffs are likely to have only a limited impact on inflation.

Waller added that the underlying data “do not indicate a healthy labor market in the private sector,” and that the Federal Reserve “should act in advance” of any potential employment slowdown.

His comments came amid near-daily criticism from US President Donald Trump of Fed Chair Jerome Powell for hesitating to cut interest rates.

US Interest Rates

• Following Waller’s comments and according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool: the pricing of a 25 basis point US rate cut in the July meeting rose from 2% to 5%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged fell from 98% to 95%.

• The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in the September meeting rose from 58% to 62%, while the probability of no change declined from 42% to 38%.

• To gain further clarity on the US interest rate outlook for this year, investors are awaiting comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Tuesday, along with a series of key US economic data releases.

Outlook on Gold Performance

• Tim Waterer, Chief Market Analyst at KCM Trade, said: “The dollar started the week on a soft note, giving gold a chance to make early gains as the tariff deadline approaches.”

• Waterer added: “The closer we get to the critical August 1 deadline without any new trade deals, the more likely gold will try to rally toward the $3,400 level—or even higher.”

SPDR Fund

Holdings at SPDRGold Trust—the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund—fell by about 4.87 metric tons on Friday, marking the second consecutive daily decline, bringing the total down to 943.63 metric tons, the lowest level since June 16.