Bitcoin is expected to break its all-time high this month, as optimism about the macroeconomic outlook continues to support risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, according to experts quoted by Decrypt on Sunday.

Weekend gains helped offset last week’s losses, with Bitcoin rising 4.5% since Saturday’s open, nearing its July 14 peak of $122,838, according to CoinGecko data.

Open interest grew by 7,834 BTC, alongside increases in both spot and perpetual trading volumes, according to derivatives platform Coinalyze, with signs that the rally was driven mainly by speculative long positions.

Sean Dawson, head of research at options platform Dervie, told Decrypt: “There’s still plenty of fuel left for this rally,” adding that Bitcoin is expected to reach “$150,000 before year-end” based on volatility data.

The cryptocurrency rally followed a surge in tech stocks last week, coinciding with investor optimism over potential US interest rate cuts and a weaker dollar.

Crypto-focused newsletter Ecoinometrics noted in a Sunday post on X that the growing correlation between the Nasdaq and Bitcoin “explains the recent price action.” It added: “Bitcoin may be digital gold, but it trades like a high-risk asset. What really matters is whether markets are in a risk-on or risk-off mode.”

Markets are now turning their attention to Tuesday’s July Consumer Price Index report, with economists expecting a 10-basis-point rise in annual inflation to 2.8%.

A lower-than-expected reading could boost expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut as early as September.

Dawson said: “We’re seeing a convergence of economic and political factors that can drive prices higher,” adding: “Cryptocurrencies tend to perform well in low interest rate environments.”

However, Dawson also pointed to growing demand for put options, reflecting increased concern over a possible upside surprise in inflation data, which could cause “a minor panic” and lead to “a sharp drop.”

Bitcoin and Crypto Get a Regulatory Boost from the US

Bitcoin posted strong gains in the second half of last week after US President Donald Trump signed an order directing regulators to allow retirement and savings plans, such as 401(k)s, access to alternative assets and private equity investments, including cryptocurrencies.

The move opens the door to a new source of institutional demand for digital assets, amid growing institutional interest.

The largest US Bitcoin ETFs saw three consecutive days of strong inflows following Trump’s order, which coincided with a sharp rally in Bitcoin prices. However, much of the recent crypto gains occurred over the low-liquidity weekend, raising questions about the sustainability of current price levels.

Trump’s order last week followed a series of pro-crypto regulatory moves by his administration in recent months, including the passage of a bill establishing a regulatory framework for stablecoins.

Rumble Weighs $1.2 Billion Bid for Tether-Backed Northern Data

US-listed video platform Rumble Inc. (NASDAQ: RUM) said Sunday it is considering a $1.17 billion offer to acquire German AI company Northern Data AG (F:NB2).

Tether, the world’s largest stablecoin issuer, is Northern Data’s biggest shareholder and could become Rumble’s largest shareholder if the deal goes through.

Rumble said it is considering offering 2.319 shares for each Northern Data share, equivalent to $18.3 per share and valuing the deal at $1.17 billion.

It added that Tether could also become one of Rumble’s largest customers if the deal proceeds, with a multi-year commitment to purchase processors from the company. However, Rumble stressed that the offer is still preliminary and not yet final.

Oil prices steadied on Monday after falling more than 4% last week, as investors awaited the upcoming talks between the United States and Russia later this week regarding the war in Ukraine.

Brent crude futures rose 5 cents to $66.64 a barrel by 10:03 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures fell by 1 cent to $63.87 a barrel.

US President Donald Trump said on Friday he would meet Russian President Vladimir Putin on August 15 in Alaska to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine.

The talks follow increased US pressure on Russia, raising the likelihood of tougher sanctions on Moscow if a peace agreement is not reached. Trump had set a deadline last Friday for Russia — which invaded Ukraine in February 2022 — to agree to peace or face secondary sanctions targeting its oil buyers. At the same time, Washington is pressing India to reduce its purchases of Russian oil.

Prices have fallen in recent days after market participants lowered their estimates of supply disruptions, likely because the United States imposed additional tariffs only on India, rather than on all buyers of Russian oil, according to Giovanni Staunovo, an analyst at UBS.

UBS cut its year-end Brent price forecast to $62 a barrel from $68, citing increased supplies from South America and continued strong output from sanctioned countries. The bank added that Indian demand had recently fallen short of expectations and said it expects the OPEC+ alliance to halt production increases unless there are larger and unexpected supply disruptions.

Exxon Mobil said on Friday that a consortium it leads began crude oil production four months ahead of schedule at the fourth floating production, storage, and offloading (FPSO) unit in Guyana.

Energy Aspects consultancy estimated that Indian refiners have already purchased a total of 5 million barrels of US WTI crude for August-loading shipments.

Silver prices lost nearly 2% in the European market on Monday at the start of the week, retreating from a two-week high due to profit-taking and correction, amid slowing investment demand for safe-haven assets as optimism grew over the success of US–Russia talks to end the war in Ukraine.

The decline in silver prices came despite the US dollar’s weak performance in the foreign exchange market, under pressure from strong expectations of at least two US interest rate cuts before the end of this year.

Price Overview

• Today’s silver prices: Silver fell by about 2.0% to $37.61, down from the opening level of $38.36, after hitting an intraday high of $38.38.

• On Friday’s settlement, silver gained about 0.25%, marking its sixth consecutive daily rise, and reached a two-week high of $38.51 per ounce on Thursday.

• Last week, silver rose 3.6%, posting its first weekly gain in a month, supported by a weaker US dollar amid a series of weak economic data releases in the United States.

US–Russia Negotiations

As part of diplomatic efforts to end the war in Ukraine, US President Donald Trump announced on Friday that he will meet Russian President Vladimir Putin on August 15 in Alaska to discuss ways to reach a peace agreement to end the ongoing military conflict.

This move comes within a series of intensive US–Russia negotiations aimed at finding a final resolution to the crisis, amid international anticipation over the success of these efforts.

US Dollar

The US dollar index fell by more than 0.2% on Monday, nearing a two-week low of 97.95 points, reflecting a decline in the US currency’s value against a basket of major and minor counterparts.

Attention remained focused on trade talks as the August 12 deadline set by Trump to reach an agreement between the United States and China approached.

US Interest Rates

• According to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool: the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the September meeting is currently priced at around 88%, while the chance of no change is at 12%.

• The probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the October meeting is currently at 96%, with a 4% chance of no change.

• To reassess these expectations, investors this week are awaiting the release of key US inflation data, which, along with labor market figures, will guide the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decisions.

The US dollar was largely steady on Monday, ahead of Tuesday’s deadline for Washington and Beijing to reach an agreement on tariffs, as markets also awaited a key US inflation report that could help determine whether the Federal Reserve will cut borrowing costs next month.

The dollar index edged down less than 0.1% to 98.164, after falling 0.4% last week. Against the yen, the US currency traded at 147.39 yen, down 0.2%. Japanese markets were closed on Monday for the “Mountain Day” holiday.

The euro rose less than 0.1% to $1.1652, while the British pound was flat at $1.3462.

The dollar remains under pressure as investors adjusted their expectations for Fed rate cuts following weak US jobs and manufacturing data.

Fed officials have expressed growing concern over the labor market, signaling openness to cutting rates as soon as September.

A slowdown in inflation could strengthen bets on a rate cut next month, but signs that President Donald Trump’s tariffs are fueling higher prices might prompt the Fed to keep policy unchanged for now.

Francesco Pesole, currency strategist at ING, said: “It’s important to note before tomorrow’s data that the threshold for a hawkish surprise is now higher,” adding that a 0.3% month-on-month increase in the core Consumer Price Index would still give the Fed room to cut rates, given the deterioration in the labor market.

Economists polled by Reuters expect the core CPI to have risen 0.3% in July, pushing the annual rate up to 3%.

Money markets are pricing in about a 90% chance of a rate cut next month, with a total of 58 basis points in cuts expected by year-end — implying two quarter-point moves — and roughly one-third odds of a third cut.

Potential changes in Fed leadership have also influenced the dollar recently, as Trump prepares to appoint policymakers aligned with his dovish stance, including a new Fed chair when Jerome Powell’s term ends in May.

Trade negotiations remained in focus, with the August 12 deadline set by Trump to reach a US–China deal approaching, particularly regarding chip policy.

Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone in Melbourne, said: “The market has fully priced in the likelihood of an extension,” predicting a new 90-day truce.

As part of efforts to reach an agreement and avoid imposing tariffs of several hundred percent on goods, a US official told Reuters that chipmakers Nvidia and AMD have agreed to allocate 15% of their China sales revenue to the US government in exchange for semiconductor export licenses.

Weston added: “I don’t know if that’s good or bad, but if it leads to a resolution, it wouldn’t be a bad outcome,” noting that “if it means Trump asks for 15% and then we close the matter, it might not be too bad.”

The offshore yuan fluctuated between gains and losses, last trading at 7.1854 per dollar, after weekend data showed China’s producer prices fell more than expected in July, while consumer prices remained unchanged.

The Australian dollar held at $0.6520 ahead of Tuesday’s central bank decision, where a 25-basis-point cut to 3.60% is widely expected after weaker-than-forecast second-quarter inflation and unemployment hitting its highest level in three and a half years.

Cryptocurrencies surged, with Bitcoin climbing to $122,308, nearing its July 14 record of $123,153.22, after Trump signed an executive order on Thursday allowing cryptocurrencies to be included in US retirement accounts.

Ethereum also jumped to $4,346, its highest level since December 2021.