Bitcoin climbed toward the $66,000 level after US President Donald Trump announced that the agreement between the United States and Iran had been finalized, while traders continued to monitor support around $65,000 and await the Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate decision.

Risk appetite improves

Trump said the agreement between Washington and Tehran had been completed and would lead to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz without transit fees. Following the announcement, Bitcoin rose to its highest level in two weeks.

In separate remarks, Trump added that oil supplies would once again flow freely in both directions after the agreement is signed, benefiting both the region and global markets.

Over the past two months, Trump has repeatedly stated that an agreement to end the conflict was close, while the cryptocurrency market has closely tracked developments in the Iran-Israel conflict since February, when the United States and Israel launched their initial strikes.

The full details of the agreement have not yet been disclosed. The deal is expected to take effect after Iran signs it on Friday, with Pakistan serving as a mediator, according to the Associated Press.

Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi confirmed the agreement on state television, while Iran's Supreme National Security Council announced that hostilities on all fronts would cease immediately and permanently by this evening and that the US blockade would be lifted in full without delay.

Bitcoin holds above $65,000 as traders eye $70,000

Amid growing optimism over a potential settlement between the United States and Iran, Bitcoin has shown renewed strength above the $65,000 level.

According to analyst Crypto Candy, who shared a chart on X, Bitcoin has reclaimed and is currently holding above the $65,000 threshold. If bullish momentum continues, the cryptocurrency could target the $70,000 level and beyond.

However, that scenario remains dependent on Bitcoin maintaining support above the $65,000 region.

Fed decision could bring fresh volatility

The US Federal Reserve is scheduled to announce its latest interest rate decision on Wednesday, June 17, in the first meeting under new Chair Kevin Warsh, a development that could have a significant impact on the cryptocurrency market.

The new Fed chief is widely viewed as more open to interest rate cuts, but inflation remaining above 4% continues to support arguments for maintaining a restrictive policy stance or even raising rates further.

According to CME Group's FedWatch Tool, markets are assigning a 96.6% probability that rates will remain unchanged within the 3.50%-3.75% range.

Bitcoin's move toward $66,000 has been fueled by optimism surrounding the conclusion of US-Iran negotiations and easing concerns over oil prices. While the final agreement is expected to be signed on Friday, markets are first awaiting a key signal from Wednesday's Federal Reserve decision.

Market outlook

Bitcoin's recent performance highlights a recurring pattern in the cryptocurrency's behavior. During the conflict, Bitcoin traded more like a high-risk asset than "digital gold," reacting quickly to geopolitical headlines and developments from the White House.

This response illustrates how heavily market direction depends on short-term expectations. Traders are not only pricing in current events but also attempting to anticipate how future headlines could affect risk appetite, oil markets, and central bank policy expectations.

Despite the recent rally, significant risks remain. Iran's nuclear program has yet to be resolved, and the announced ceasefire period could prove to be a temporary truce rather than the foundation of a lasting agreement.

Should nuclear negotiations falter, the geopolitical risk premium that is currently fading could quickly return to financial markets.

For Bitcoin, the next test is clear. Holding above $65,000 would preserve bullish momentum and keep the door open for a move toward $70,000. A break below that level, however, could turn the recent advance into nothing more than a news-driven bounce rather than the start of a stronger upward breakout.

Oil prices dropped to their lowest levels in three months on Monday after US President Donald Trump and Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister announced a preliminary agreement to end the conflict and restore shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

Brent crude futures fell $4.39, or 5.0%, to $82.94 per barrel by 09:43 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate crude dropped $4.62, or 5.4%, to $80.26 per barrel.

Both benchmarks touched their lowest levels since March 10 after already falling more than 3% on Friday.

End of the conflict

Pakistan's Prime Minister, whose country played a mediating role, said the United States and Iran are expected to sign a memorandum of understanding in Switzerland on Friday.

Trump also said on Sunday that the Strait of Hormuz would be reopened "without transit fees" and that the US naval blockade of Iranian ports would be lifted.

Iran's semi-official Mehr News Agency reported that the draft agreement calls for the Strait of Hormuz to be fully reopened within 30 days under arrangements coordinated by Iran.

"It will take time before oil flows through this vital corridor return to pre-crisis levels of 20 million barrels per day," said Tamas Varga, analyst at PVM Oil Associates.

"Estimates for a full resumption range from several weeks to several months," he added.

Varga noted that financial investors are effectively pricing in future supply, helping explain the current decline in oil prices. He also warned that a slow reopening could leave global markets facing supply deficits throughout 2026.

The Strait of Hormuz

The world has lost millions of barrels of oil and gas supplies since the closure of the Strait of Hormuz—through which roughly one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas shipments normally pass—for more than three months during the conflict.

Investors are also closely monitoring how quickly Middle Eastern producers can restore production and exports after war-related disruptions, and whether more shipping companies will return to the region.

"The damage that has already been done cannot be reversed overnight," said Priyanka Sachdeva, Senior Market Analyst at Phillip Nova.

"This includes not only potential physical damage to oil infrastructure, but also the economic strain that oil-importing countries have endured after months of elevated energy costs," she added.

Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi said a broader agreement will be negotiated during a 60-day ceasefire period.

Meanwhile, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said Israeli forces will continue operating in security zones in Lebanon, Syria, and Gaza indefinitely to protect Israel's borders and settlements.

Sources have also indicated that the future of Iran's nuclear program—another highly sensitive issue—will be addressed during subsequent negotiations.

David Gorbinazi, Head of Global Oil Markets at ICIS, said he expects "a partial recovery in shipping activity within weeks of a credible agreement, with a meaningful commercial recovery occurring within four to six months."

"A full return to pre-war traffic volumes is realistically a 2027 story, and only if the agreement holds without incidents and production levels recover quickly," he added.

Separately, the E4 countries—Britain, France, Germany, and Italy—announced on Sunday that they are prepared to lift sanctions on Iran in exchange for progress on its nuclear program.

Silver prices climbed more than 4% in European trading on Monday, extending gains for a third consecutive session and reaching their highest level in two weeks. The metal surged back above the key $70-per-ounce mark, supported by a weaker US dollar and sharply lower oil prices after the United States and Iran reached a peace agreement that is expected to be formally signed in Switzerland on Friday.

Expectations for at least one Federal Reserve rate hike this year have also eased as falling oil prices are expected to slow inflation and reduce broader price pressures.

The Price

• Silver prices today: Silver rose 4.2% to $70.86 per ounce, its highest level in two weeks, from an opening level of $68.01. The session low was also recorded at $68.01.

• At Friday's settlement, silver gained 1.0%, marking its second consecutive daily advance as the metal continued to recover from a three-month low of $61.50 per ounce.

• Silver posted a gain of 0.35% last week, its first weekly advance in five weeks, supported by bargain buying at lower levels.

US dollar

The US Dollar Index fell 0.45% on Monday, touching a two-week low of 99.42 and reflecting broad weakness in the greenback against a basket of global currencies.

Risk sentiment improved after US and Iranian officials announced a framework agreement to end the conflict, lift the US blockade on Iran, and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Global oil prices

Oil prices fell by an average of 5% on Monday, extending losses for a third consecutive session and dropping to their lowest levels in three months as concerns over Middle East supply disruptions faded following the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

Developments in the Iran conflict

• The United States and Iran have reached a preliminary agreement to end the conflict, with a formal signing expected on Friday in Geneva.

• President Donald Trump confirmed the deal and announced the lifting of the naval blockade on Iranian ports, alongside the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to global shipping traffic.

• Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, who reportedly served as the chief mediator, said the agreement includes an immediate and permanent ceasefire across all fronts, including Lebanon.

• Mediators have set Friday, June 19, 2026, as the date for the official signing ceremony between US and Iranian delegations in Switzerland.

• Under the draft agreement, Tehran has pledged not to pursue nuclear weapons and will accept strict inspection measures.

• Iran's Mehr News Agency reported that the memorandum of understanding includes a 60-day negotiation period on the nuclear issue and calls for the release of $24 billion in frozen Iranian assets during the talks.

US interest rates

• With oil prices falling, CME Group's FedWatch Tool shows the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in December declining from 67% to 55%.

• Market pricing for no change in interest rates at the June meeting has slipped from 98% to 95%, while the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut has increased from 2% to 5%.

• The Federal Reserve begins its latest monetary policy meeting on Tuesday, with a decision scheduled for Wednesday. Markets overwhelmingly expect policymakers to leave rates unchanged for a fourth consecutive meeting.

Gold prices surged about 3% in European trading on Monday, extending gains for a third consecutive session as a weaker US dollar and sharply lower oil prices boosted demand after the United States and Iran reached a peace agreement that is expected to be formally signed in Switzerland on Friday.

Expectations for at least one Federal Reserve rate hike this year have also eased, as falling oil prices are expected to slow inflation and reduce broader price pressures across the economy.

The Price

• Gold prices today: Gold rose 3.0% to $4,345.48 per ounce from an opening level of $4,219.40, with the session low also recorded at $4,219.40.

• At Friday's settlement, gold gained 0.2%, marking its second consecutive daily advance as the metal continued to recover from a seven-month low of $4,023.86 per ounce.

• Despite the recent rebound, gold lost 2.55% last week, its second consecutive weekly decline, amid persistent selling pressure across precious metals markets.

US dollar

The US Dollar Index fell 0.45% on Monday, touching a two-week low of 99.42 and reflecting broad weakness in the greenback against a basket of major and minor currencies.

Market sentiment improved after US and Iranian officials announced a framework agreement to end the conflict, lift the US blockade on Iran, and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Global oil prices

Oil prices fell by an average of 5% on Monday, extending losses for a third straight day and dropping to their lowest levels in three months as concerns over Middle East supply disruptions faded following the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

Developments in the Iran conflict

• The United States and Iran have reached a preliminary agreement to end the conflict, with a formal signing expected on Friday in Geneva.

• President Donald Trump confirmed the deal and announced the lifting of the naval blockade on Iranian ports, alongside the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to global shipping traffic.

• Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, who reportedly served as the chief mediator, said the agreement includes an immediate and permanent ceasefire across all fronts, including Lebanon.

• Mediators have set Friday, June 19, 2026, as the date for the official signing ceremony between US and Iranian delegations in Switzerland.

• Under the draft agreement, Tehran has pledged not to pursue nuclear weapons and will accept strict inspection measures.

• Iran's Mehr News Agency reported that the memorandum of understanding includes a 60-day negotiation period on the nuclear issue and calls for the release of $24 billion in frozen Iranian assets during the talks.

US interest rates

• Goldman Sachs expects the Federal Reserve to leave interest rates unchanged throughout 2026 and postpone any rate cuts until 2027, citing stronger economic activity and continued job growth.

• With oil prices falling, CME Group's FedWatch Tool shows the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in December declining from 67% to 55%.

• Market pricing for no change in interest rates at the June meeting has slipped from 98% to 95%, while the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut has increased from 2% to 5%.

• The Federal Reserve begins its latest monetary policy meeting on Tuesday, with a decision scheduled for Wednesday. Markets overwhelmingly expect policymakers to leave rates unchanged for a fourth consecutive meeting.

Gold outlook

Tim Waterer, Chief Market Analyst at KCM Trade, said lower oil prices and a weaker US dollar, driven by easing geopolitical risks and the expected reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, are helping to calm inflation expectations.

Waterer added: "This combination is providing gold with its strongest support in weeks, though the durability of that support will depend on the strength and credibility of the peace agreement."

SPDR Gold Trust

Holdings of the SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, were unchanged on Friday for a second consecutive session, leaving total holdings at 1,013.64 metric tons, the lowest level since October 9, 2025.