Wheat futures fall as traders await fresh supply data

Wheat futures came under selling pressure early Tuesday, with prices down between 3 and 5.5 cents as the market assessed the latest fundamental data and shifts in trader positioning ahead of fresh supply estimates.

Wheat markets posted mixed moves on Monday. Winter wheat contracts generally held firmer, while spring wheat futures declined.

Chicago SRW wheat futures ended Monday between fractionally higher and up 4 cents. Total open interest in Chicago wheat fell by 2,230 contracts, largely driven by an 18,038-contract decline in the September contract amid position rolling.

Kansas City HRW wheat futures mostly closed between fractionally higher and up 2.75 cents, while the September contract slipped 0.5 cent. Open interest in Kansas wheat rose by around 3,000 contracts.

In contrast, Minneapolis spring wheat futures declined, with most listed contracts ending Monday between 1.25 and 9.5 cents lower.

US crop progress and conditions

The latest crop progress report from the US National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) showed that the US winter wheat harvest was 91% complete as of Sunday, in line with the normal seasonal pace.

The spring wheat harvest advanced to 24%, ahead of the five-year average of 19%.

Spring wheat conditions deteriorated, with the share of the crop rated good to excellent falling by 4 percentage points to 51%.

The Brugler500 spring wheat index also declined by 9 points to 339, reflecting weaker crop condition ratings.

Export shipments rise, but year-to-date pace remains weak

The latest weekly Export Inspections report released Monday showed wheat shipments totaling 421,277 metric tons, or 15.48 million bushels, during the week ended August 6.

Shipments increased 24.36% from the previous week and were 1.55% higher than during the same week last year.

Japan was the largest destination during the week, receiving 81,506 metric tons, followed by Mexico with 78,035 tons and the Philippines with 66,000 tons.

Since the beginning of the current marketing year, wheat export shipments have totaled 3.332 million metric tons, or 122.4 million bushels, down 24.56% from the same period last year.

USDA data and supply estimates in focus

NASS is scheduled to release its latest wheat production estimates on Wednesday as part of its monthly Crop Production report.

According to a Reuters survey, analysts on average expect total US wheat production at 1.525 billion bushels, which would represent an 11-million-bushel decline from the July estimate.

Winter wheat production is expected at around 981 million bushels, down 9 million bushels from last month's estimate.

Spring wheat production is projected at 468 million bushels, around 7 million bushels below the previous estimate.

US ending stocks are expected at 715 million bushels, which would represent a decline of 7 million bushels from last month's forecast.

Russian supplies and export outlook

Outside the United States, Sovecon estimates Russia's wheat exports in August at between 3 million and 3.4 million metric tons, below the 4.5 million tons shipped during the same month last year.

IKA estimates the Russian wheat crop at 90 million metric tons, lowering its forecast by 500,000 tons from last month's estimate.