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Wheat ends higher after USDA's Ukraine estimates
AI Summary
- Wheat prices rose after USDA's global forecasts for 2025/26 showed a decline in Ukraine's wheat production and exports
- Global wheat market outlook for 2025/26 predicts a decrease in supply, increase in consumption, and drop in trade and ending stocks
- Corn futures rose by 1.1%, soybean futures jumped by 1.8%, and wheat futures settled 0.7% higher at the close of the session
Wheat prices rose on Wednesday in the Chicago Board of Trade, after the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) released its global forecasts for key crops for the 2025/26 marketing year, according to reports from the Ukrainian Agribusiness Club.
According to the USDA forecast, Ukraine’s wheat production for the 2025/26 marketing year will decline by 1 million tons to reach 22 million tons. Wheat exports are also expected to drop by 1 million tons to 15.5 million tons. As for corn, both production and export forecasts remained unchanged at 30.5 million tons and 15.5 million tons, respectively.
The global wheat market outlook for the 2025/26 marketing year points to a decline in supply (due to lower beginning stocks), an increase in consumption, a decrease in trade, and a drop in ending stocks.
Global wheat production for the 2025/26 marketing year remains unchanged at 808.6 million tons. However, output will fall in Canada (down 1 million tons to 35 million tons), Ukraine (down 1 million tons to 22 million tons), and Iran, while rising in Kazakhstan (up 1 million tons to 15.5 million tons), the European Union (up 0.7 million tons to 137.3 million tons), Pakistan, and Russia (up 0.5 million tons to 83.5 million tons).
Global consumption will rise by 0.8 million tons to reach 810.6 million tons, mainly driven by higher feed and residual use in Kazakhstan and Thailand.
Global trade will decline by 1.2 million tons to 213.1 million tons due to reduced exports from the European Union (down 2 million tons to 32.5 million tons) and Ukraine (down 1 million tons), partially offset by increased exports from Russia (up 1 million tons to 46 million tons) and the US (up 0.7 million tons to 23.1 million tons). Global ending stocks for 2025/2026 have been revised down by 1.2 million tons to 261.5 million tons, mainly due to reductions in Canada and the European Union.
Corn
Corn futures for December delivery rose by 1.1% at the close of the session to $4.24 per bushel.
Soybeans
Soybean futures for November delivery jumped by 1.8% to $10.20 per bushel.
Wheat
Wheat futures for September delivery settled 0.7% higher at $5.41 per bushel.
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