Wheat edges higher as Black Sea export disruptions persist

Chicago wheat futures edged higher on Thursday as continued disruptions to grain exports from the Black Sea supported prices, with escalating attacks between Russia and Ukraine continuing to hamper shipments from two of the world's largest wheat exporters.

Corn and soybean futures also posted modest gains after declining over the previous two sessions, as forecasts for additional rainfall across the US Midwest improved expectations for crop yields.

The most active wheat contract on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) rose 0.2% to $6.43½ per bushel by 06:45 GMT.

Although prices have retreated from the two-year high above $7.00 per bushel reached two weeks ago, wheat remains up more than 25% since the beginning of the year.

Black Sea disruptions continue to support prices

Vitor Pistoia, an agricultural markets analyst at Rabobank, said the ongoing military conflict between Russia and Ukraine remains the dominant force driving wheat prices.

He noted that escalating attacks on vessels, ports, and export terminals across the Black Sea have disrupted grain shipments, while Ukraine's agriculture minister recently acknowledged that alternative export routes will not be able to fully replace lost shipping capacity before at least the end of August.

At the same time, Pistoia pointed out that Russia and Ukraine have together harvested roughly one million additional metric tons of wheat this year compared with their combined five-year average.

He said the current supply disruptions are helping keep wheat prices elevated but do not yet signal a structural bull market, as global production remains sufficient and there is no significant worldwide supply shortage.

Corn and soybeans

CBOT corn futures gained 0.2% to $4.61 per bushel, while soybean futures also rose 0.2% to $11.77½ per bushel.

However, gains in corn remained limited after StoneX raised its forecast for the 2026 US corn harvest to 16.160 billion bushels.

The company also increased its projected average yield to 184.8 bushels per acre, above the latest estimate from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), reinforcing expectations for abundant supplies during the current marketing season.