Nickel prices were little changed on Wednesday amid ongoing market uncertainty surrounding US–China trade tensions, while a major US bank issued a cautious outlook for industrial metals heading into next year.

In a research note published this month, Goldman Sachs projected that copper prices would remain in a range between $10,000 and $11,000 per metric ton through 2026 and 2027, citing oversupply in the market despite maintaining a broadly positive long-term view for industrial metals.

The bank highlighted three key factors that could limit copper’s upside potential:

1. Chinese buyers cutting purchases once prices exceed $11,000 per ton — as seen in the second quarter of 2024.

2. Rising US inventories, which could quickly rebalance the market if price spreads on the London Metal Exchange (LME) narrow.

3. Overestimated demand from data centers, which may be lower than initially expected.

Goldman: Indonesian Producer Margins Will Dictate Nickel’s Path

Regarding the nickel market, Goldman Sachs said that profit margins for Indonesian producers must shrink further to curb supply growth and reverse the ongoing market surplus.

The bank forecast a 6% drop in nickel prices, reaching $14,500 per metric ton by December 2026.

Aluminum Surplus Expected, Prices to Return to Current Levels Only by 2030

Goldman Sachs also expects an oversupply in the aluminum market as new Indonesian output ramps up from mid-2026.

The bank projected aluminum prices at around $2,350 per ton in the fourth quarter of 2026, with no return to current price levels expected before 2030.

China Set to Become a Net Zinc Exporter in 2026

Goldman Sachs said China is likely to shift from being a net importer to a net exporter of zinc in 2026 as domestic production increases.

“We expect rising local output to move China from deficit to surplus,” the bank wrote, “while the market outside China shifts into deficit. To balance global supply, Chinese producers will need to be incentivized to export.”

Cobalt Supported by Tight Supply and New Export Quotas in Congo

In the cobalt market, Goldman Sachs noted that new export quotas imposed by the Democratic Republic of the Congo — which supplies 70% of the world’s cobalt — are likely to create a supply deficit in 2026, supporting prices as market tightness intensifies.

Lithium to Stay Weak Through 2026 Amid Oversupply

The bank also expects lithium prices to remain subdued for longer, averaging $8,900 per metric ton in 2026, as persistent oversupply keeps the market in a glut.

As of 15:14 GMT, spot nickel traded steady at $14,900 per ton.

Bitcoin prices edged slightly higher on Wednesday but remained near recent lows, as cryptocurrency markets continued to struggle in the aftermath of the violent early-October flash crash.

The broader risk-off sentiment in global markets offered little support to digital assets, which have largely underperformed other high-risk classes this year. Persistent uncertainty surrounding the US economy, renewed trade tensions with China, and limited investor interest despite gold’s overnight plunge all weighed on the crypto sector.

Bitcoin rose 0.9% to $108,516.3 as of 01:07 a.m. Eastern Time (05:07 GMT).

Bitcoin Struggles to Recover as “Uptober” Optimism Fades

The world’s largest cryptocurrency had fallen earlier this month to a low of $103,000 and has since failed to break above $110,000.

Crypto markets overall have struggled this month as optimism around the so-called “Uptober” rally — a historical pattern of strong October performance — faded.

Bitcoin is now down roughly 2% month-to-date, a sharp contrast to the 10% gain recorded during the same period last year.

While early-month optimism briefly lifted prices, momentum faded as risk appetite weakened, leaving digital assets trailing the broader recovery in global markets — especially equities — over recent weeks.

Asian Exchanges Push Back Against Corporate Digital Treasury Plans

Adding further pressure, Bloomberg reported that three of the largest stock exchanges in the Asia-Pacific region are reviewing the plans of listed companies seeking to pivot toward digital asset–based business models.

According to the report, Hong Kong’s exchange operator (HKEX) rejected at least five firms’ proposals to adopt “digital asset treasury” strategies, citing rules that restrict large holdings of liquid assets.

Similar plans reportedly faced pushback in Australia and India.

Bloomberg’s report comes amid rising skepticism about the long-term viability of corporate digital treasury strategies, popularized by MicroStrategy (NASDAQ:MSTR).

Investors have questioned whether such companies can generate sustainable returns from large crypto reserves, especially during prolonged market weakness. Analysts earlier this year warned of excessive crowding in the corporate digital-asset space.

Crypto Prices Today: Altcoins Underperform as Bitcoin Recovery Slows

Alternative cryptocurrencies (altcoins) traded in a narrow, downward-sloping range, with weak sentiment and a lack of immediate catalysts weighing on the sector.

Ethereum (ETH), the second-largest cryptocurrency, fell 0.5% to $3,843.59. BNB dropped 0.7% to $1,061.70. Ripple’s XRP declined 1.2%, Cardano (ADA) slipped 0.9%, and Solana (SOL) was little changed.

Oil prices rose for a second consecutive day on Wednesday, gaining around 2%, supported by hopes of progress toward a trade agreement between the United States and both China and India.

Brent crude futures climbed $0.96, or 1.6%, to $62.28 per barrel as of 09:24 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose $0.95, or 1.7%, to $58.19 per barrel.

MUFG Bank analyst Sojin Kim said, “Oil prices rose after reports indicated that the United States and India are close to finalizing a trade deal that could lead to a gradual reduction in India’s imports of Russian oil, potentially boosting demand for other grades of crude.”

He added that US President Donald Trump stated he had spoken with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Tuesday, noting that Modi assured him India would limit its purchases of Russian oil.

India’s Mint newspaper reported Wednesday that the two countries are nearing a long-awaited trade deal that includes reducing US tariffs on Indian imports to between 15% and 16%, down from the current 50%.

Anticipation Over US–China Talks

Investors are also closely watching developments in trade negotiations between the US and China, with officials from both sides set to meet this week in Malaysia.

Trump said Monday that he expects to reach a “fair trade deal” with Chinese President Xi Jinping, whom he was scheduled to meet next week in South Korea.

However, on Tuesday, Trump reignited uncertainty about the meeting, saying it might not take place as planned.

Supply Concerns Support Prices

Meanwhile, supply concerns resurfaced after the postponement of the anticipated summit between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, along with fears of potential disruptions as Western pressure mounts on Asian buyers to curb imports of Russian oil.

Expectations of a decline in US inventories also helped support prices.

Market sources citing data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) on Tuesday said US crude, gasoline, and distillate inventories fell last week.

The US Department of Energy also announced Tuesday that it plans to purchase one million barrels of crude oil for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve — a move aimed at taking advantage of relatively low prices to rebuild stockpiles.

The US dollar steadied against a basket of currencies on Wednesday, pausing after a three-day rally, while the British pound weakened following data showing that UK inflation for September came in weaker than expected.

The Japanese yen rose slightly against the dollar after touching a one-week low on Tuesday, as Reuters reported that newly appointed Prime Minister Sanai Takaiichi is preparing to unveil an economic stimulus package expected to exceed last year’s ¥13.9 trillion ($92.19 billion) plan, aimed at helping households cope with inflation.

After sharp declines, gold stabilized at $4,119.80 per ounce following its biggest one-day drop in five years during the previous session.

British Pound Falls as Inflation Slows Below Expectations

The pound was the weakest among major currencies on Wednesday after data showed UK inflation unexpectedly held steady at 3.8%, missing forecasts from both economists and the Bank of England.

The pound fell 0.4% against the dollar to $1.3318 and 0.3% against the euro to 87.04 pence.

Francesco Pesole, currency strategist at ING, said, “When the Bank of England started sending hawkish signals recently, it was based on the view that inflation would be stronger than economists expected — but that doesn’t seem to be the case now.”

He added that the latest data opens the door for a possible rate cut in December, though not in November since that would be “too early before the budget announcement.”

Market pricing now shows about a 75% probability of a rate cut by the Bank of England before year-end.

Focus Turns to the Japanese Yen

The dollar slipped 0.1% to ¥151.85 in late trading.

The yen has lost roughly 2.5% this month amid Takaiichi’s campaign for prime minister — its biggest monthly drop against the dollar since July — as investors anticipate that her expansionary fiscal stance and uneasy relationship with the Bank of Japan could weigh on the currency.

Pesole of ING noted, “Takaiichi’s first remarks as prime minister suggest she wants to calm markets and avoid worsening yen weakness for now.”

Known for her support of loose fiscal and monetary policies, Takaiichi said Tuesday that monetary policy decisions remain the prerogative of the Bank of Japan.

Meanwhile, newly appointed Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said Wednesday that economic and monetary policy coordination between the government and the BOJ is essential to ensure effectiveness.

The Bank of Japan is set to announce its next policy decision on October 30, with futures markets pricing a 20% chance of a 25-basis-point rate hike to 0.75%.

Dollar Steadies

The dollar index, which tracks the greenback against six major peers, was flat at 99.01 after three consecutive days of gains.

This came after President Donald Trump on Tuesday rejected a request from senior Democratic lawmakers to meet before the end of the ongoing three-week US government shutdown.

According to prediction platform Polymarket, hopes for a quick resolution to the shutdown are fading, with current odds showing a 40% chance it will last until November 16 or later.

The political standoff complicates the Federal Reserve’s task ahead of its October 29 meeting, though markets still expect a 25-basis-point rate cut next week followed by another in December, according to a Reuters poll of economists who remain deeply divided over the path of rates through next year.

CME FedWatch data shows a 97.3% probability of a quarter-point cut, down slightly from 99.4% the previous day.

The euro was steady at $1.1597 after a planned summit between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin was postponed, following Moscow’s refusal to agree to an immediate ceasefire in Ukraine.