Nickel prices rose for the fourth consecutive session on Wednesday after the world’s largest nickel mine in Indonesia received a much lower production quota for this year, increasing supply concerns.

The three-month benchmark nickel contract on the London Metal Exchange climbed 2.1% to $17,860 per metric ton by 10:00 GMT, after touching an earlier gain of 2.8% at $17,980, its highest level since January 30.

French miner Eramet said its PT Weda Bay Nickel project, a joint venture with China’s Tsingshan and Indonesia’s PT Antam, received an initial production quota of 12 million wet metric tons for 2026, down from 32 million wet metric tons in 2025, adding that it will apply for an upward revision of the quota.

After a prolonged period of low prices, nickel has jumped about 18.6% over the past three months and hit its highest level in more than three years on January 25, after Indonesia — the world’s largest producer of nickel ore — pledged to curb supplies.

Nitesh Shah, commodities strategist at WisdomTree, said Indonesia clearly recognizes its pricing power, noting that its control of about 60% of global output makes it more influential than OPEC in the oil market. He added that Jakarta has realized it does not need to overproduce to achieve solid revenues.

Even so, the International Nickel Study Group expects a surplus of 261,000 tons this year, while an LME futures positioning report showed that one party holds a short position in the February contract equal to between 20% and 29% of total open interest.

Other base metals were also supported by the weaker US dollar, which makes dollar-denominated commodities more attractive to holders of other currencies.

Copper rose 1.2% to $13,266.50 per ton as top consumer China prepares for the Lunar New Year holiday. Aluminum gained 1.1% to $3,127.50, zinc added 1.4% to $3,442.50, lead rose 0.6% to $1,985, and tin jumped 2.8% to $50,700 per ton.

Bitcoin fell below the $67,000 level during Asian trading on Wednesday, as investors awaited key US jobs data due later in the day, which could influence the Federal Reserve’s interest rate path.

The world’s largest cryptocurrency was trading down about 2.6% at $67,126.7 as of 02:46 ET (07:46 GMT).

Ongoing market volatility

Bitcoin recently recovered from last week’s drop near the $60,000 level, but struggled to hold gains above $70,000, reflecting continued volatility and weak sentiment across digital asset markets.

Delayed jobs data in focus

The delayed US employment report — originally scheduled for last week before being postponed due to a short government shutdown — is set for release later on Wednesday.

Economists expect the report to show that about 70,000 jobs were added in January, with the unemployment rate holding near 4.4%.

Inflation data also in focus

Traders are also watching for the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report due on Friday, which may help shape inflation expectations and, in turn, influence Fed interest rate decisions.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets currently expect the Federal Reserve to keep rates unchanged until June, following three consecutive rate cuts in late 2025.

Rate impact on risk assets

Expectations of monetary easing and lower interest rates typically support higher-risk assets, including Bitcoin, as the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets declines.

However, the current cycle appears different, with Bitcoin prices remaining relatively weak despite rate cuts, amid reduced liquidity, softer institutional demand, and fading speculative flows, according to analysts.

Robinhood shares fall on weaker crypto revenue

Shares of Robinhood Markets fell in after-hours trading on Tuesday after the digital brokerage reported quarterly results below expectations, pressured by weaker cryptocurrency trading revenue and slower overall digital asset activity.

The company posted fourth-quarter revenue of about $1.28 billion, below analyst expectations of $1.40 billion.

Crypto revenue declined sharply, outweighing growth in stock and options trading, sending the stock down more than 8% in after-hours trading.

Altcoins decline

Most major altcoins also moved lower on Wednesday amid the cautious market tone.

Ethereum, the second-largest cryptocurrency, fell 2.7% to $1,952.92, while XRP, the third-largest, dropped about 4% to $1.36.

Oil prices rose by about 2% during Wednesday’s trading, supported by potential supply risks if tensions between the United States and Iran escalate, alongside signs of improving demand as inventories decline at some key hubs.

Brent crude futures climbed by $1.41, or 2.1%, to reach $70.21 per barrel by 11:56 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate crude rose $1.36, or around 2.1%, to $65.31.

Giovanni Staunovo, oil analyst at UBS, said ongoing tensions in the Middle East continue to support prices, despite no actual supply disruptions so far.

A cautious diplomatic path

In this context, the Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson said on Tuesday that nuclear talks with the United States have allowed Tehran to assess Washington’s seriousness and have shown sufficient alignment to continue the diplomatic track.

Meanwhile, President Donald Trump said he is considering sending a second aircraft carrier to the Middle East, even as Washington and Tehran prepare to resume negotiations aimed at avoiding a new conflict.

Tamas Varga, analyst at PVM Oil Associates, said political rhetoric remains sharp at times, but there are still no concrete signs of real escalation, noting that Trump believes Iran will ultimately seek an agreement on its nuclear and missile program.

Additional support factors

Prices also drew support from a modest decline in the US dollar, as a stronger dollar typically weakens demand for dollar-denominated oil from foreign buyers.

Oil was further supported by signs that excess supply is narrowing, as markets absorb part of the additional output that emerged during the last quarter of 2025.

Staunovo noted that drawdowns in crude inventories at the Amsterdam–Rotterdam–Antwerp (ARA) refining and storage hub, as well as at Fujairah, reflect relatively tighter market conditions.

Focus on US inventory data

Traders are awaiting the weekly US oil inventory data from the Energy Information Administration, due later on Wednesday.

US crude inventories rose by 13.4 million barrels in the week ending February 6, according to market sources citing data from the American Petroleum Institute released on Tuesday.

The US dollar declined broadly during Wednesday’s trading, especially against the Japanese yen and the Australian dollar, while the Japanese currency continued to outperform after Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s landslide election victory.

The dollar fell by 0.75% against the yen to 153.25, bringing its total losses to about 2.5% since last Friday’s close, which came before Takaichi’s weekend victory.

The euro also dropped by 0.6% against the yen to 182.46, bringing its total decline to roughly 1.8% since the election.

Many analysts had expected the yen to weaken if Takaichi won, given her support for tax cuts despite Japan’s heavy debt burden. However, market moves ran counter to those expectations and began reinforcing themselves.

Lee Hardman, senior currency analyst at MUFG, said the yen’s failure to weaken despite Takaichi tightening her grip on power encouraged speculators to trim short yen positions in the near term.

Broader dollar weakness

The dollar lost further momentum against other major currencies, with the euro rising 0.16% to $1.1914, and the British pound gaining 0.3% to $1.3680.

The US currency also fell by 0.25% against the Swiss franc to 0.7659.

Pressure on the dollar followed data showing US retail sales slowed more than expected in December, alongside a separate report indicating slower growth in labor costs during the fourth quarter.

Upcoming jobs data

Markets are awaiting the January US jobs report, which was delayed from last week due to the brief government shutdown, as the next key test for the dollar’s weakness trend.

A Reuters survey showed nonfarm payrolls are expected to have increased by about 70,000 jobs last month, after a 50,000 gain in December. Any upside or downside surprise could shift Federal Reserve policy expectations.

Markets are currently pricing in about 60 basis points of rate cuts by December, despite signals from some policymakers that rates could remain unchanged for longer.

Australian dollar stands out

The Australian dollar was among the top gainers, breaking above $0.71 for the first time since February 2023, and was last up 0.4% at 0.7104.

Andrew Hauser, deputy governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, said inflation remains too high and stressed that policymakers are committed to doing whatever is necessary to bring it under control.

Moh Siong Sim, currency strategist at OCBC, raised his year-end forecast for the Australian dollar to $0.73 from $0.69, noting that last week’s rate hike to 3.85% — the first among G10 economies excluding Japan — strengthens the case for further tightening.

Markets are pricing roughly a 70% probability of another rate hike to 4.10% at the May meeting, following first-quarter inflation data.

Other currency moves

The New Zealand dollar rose 0.2% to $0.6054, amid expectations that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand could also raise rates before year-end.

The Norwegian krone also outperformed after stronger-than-expected core inflation data led markets to rule out additional monetary easing.

The dollar fell 0.6% to 9.469 kroner, its lowest level since 2022, while the euro slipped 0.4% to 11.28 kroner, marking a ten-month low.