Nickel prices rose during Monday’s trading as the US dollar weakened against most major currencies, while markets assessed developments related to US tariff policy alongside expectations of a recovery in demand.

Indonesia plans to issue production quotas ranging between 260 million and 270 million tons of nickel ore this year, according to Bloomberg. This level is slightly above earlier estimates of 250 to 260 million tons, but significantly below the 379 million ton target set for 2025. Authorities manage production levels through annual mining permits known as RKABs, with quotas subject to mid-year review.

PT Weda Bay Nickel is set to receive a quota of 12 million tons of ore this year, down from 42 million tons in 2025. The mine, located on Halmahera Island in North Maluku province, is jointly owned by Tsingshan Holding Group Co, Eramet SA, and PT Aneka Tambang. Eramet confirmed the reduced allocation and said it intends to request a review, while Indonesia’s Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources said quotas remain under evaluation.

Price stabilization

Indonesia is seeking to curb a persistent global surplus after its production surged to around 65% of global supply, a development that has pushed prices lower over the past two years and forced higher-cost producers in Australia and New Caledonia to shut down.

The quota reduction will have a major impact on the Weda Bay mine, which had planned to raise output to more than 60 million tons of ore to support a nearby industrial complex. Instead, the mine has imported significant volumes of ore from the Philippines to offset local supply shortages.

Nickel is used in stainless steel production and electric vehicle batteries, although demand from the battery sector has been weaker than expected as some manufacturers shift toward chemistries that do not rely on nickel.

In January, Macquarie Group raised its 2026 nickel price forecast by 18% to $17,750 per ton on the London Metal Exchange, citing a sharp decline in the expected surplus due to tighter Indonesian quotas.

Coal production cuts

Indonesia is also working to reduce thermal coal output, with mining quotas in the world’s largest coal exporter set to decline by about 25% compared with the previous year. The Indonesian Coal Mining Association said these cuts could force some operations to close and leave overseas buyers searching for alternative supplies.

Meanwhile, the dollar index fell by 0.2% to 97.6 points by 15:57 GMT, recording a session high of 97.8 and a low of 97.3.

In trading, spot nickel contracts were up 1% at $17,300 per ton at 16:13 GMT.

Bitcoin briefly fell below the $65,000 level during Asian trading on Monday and remained under pressure as large cryptocurrency holders continued to sell, amid rising uncertainty over US trade policy that weakened overall risk appetite.

The world’s largest cryptocurrency dropped 4% to $65,296.8 by 01:30 ET (06:30 GMT), after falling as low as $64,384.2 in the previous 24 hours. The currency returned close to the lows recorded in early February, when it briefly broke below the $60,000 level.

Other cryptocurrencies also declined broadly, with Ethereum coming under notable pressure after reports showed its founder, Vitalik Buterin, selling more of his holdings.

Whale selling weighs on Bitcoin as risk appetite weakens

On-chain data from CryptoQuant showed increased Bitcoin inflows from large private wallets — known in the industry as “whales” — to major exchanges, likely signaling further selling activity.

The term “whales” refers to entities holding large amounts of Bitcoin, often including early investors, institutional players, or digital asset funds, whose movements can significantly influence short-term price action when holdings are moved onto exchanges.

Transfers of coins to exchanges are generally seen as a signal of intent to sell and tend to increase price pressure on Bitcoin by boosting tradable supply.

At the same time, there appeared to be a lack of large-scale buying across most crypto platforms, with sentiment remaining weak after the sharp losses recorded in recent months.

Tariff escalation adds pressure

Renewed turbulence in US trade policy added to the negative trend. The US Supreme Court last week struck down a large part of the tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump, ruling that he had exceeded his authority in imposing duties on key trading partners.

Trump later announced a new global tariff of 10% on imports for 150 days, before raising it to 15%, the maximum allowed under the law, triggering fresh market disruption.

The tariff escalation weighed on equities and risk-sensitive assets during Asian trading on Monday, as investors worried that higher trade barriers could slow global growth and reduce liquidity — factors that typically pressure cryptocurrencies.

Altcoins decline as Buterin sales pressure Ethereum

Other major cryptocurrencies also posted sharp declines, with Ethereum facing renewed pressure after reports indicated that Buterin had sold additional holdings.

Ethereum fell around 5% to $1,878.63, returning close to its early-February lows.

Data showed that Buterin sold at least 1,694 Ether worth $3.3 million over the weekend. Although this remains a small portion of his total holdings, it raised concerns over further whale-related selling pressure on the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency.

Among other altcoins, XRP, Solana, Cardano, and BNB declined between 3% and 8%.

In the meme-coin category, Dogecoin fell 2.9%, while the $TRUMP token lost around 3.4%.

US economic data released on Friday added to cautious sentiment, as gross domestic product grew at an annualized rate of 1.4% in the fourth quarter, reflecting slower growth, while the personal consumption expenditures price index remained elevated at 2.9% year-on-year.

Persistently high inflation alongside slowing growth has complicated expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, reducing bets on near-term monetary easing this year.

Oil prices were steady on Monday as the United States and Iran prepared to hold a third round of nuclear talks, easing fears of a potential conflict and partly offsetting economic uncertainty following the latest tariff measures announced by US President Donald Trump.

Brent crude futures fell by 4 cents to $71.72 per barrel by 12:00 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate crude declined by 4 cents to $66.44 per barrel.

Growing concerns over a possible military conflict between the United States and Iran had pushed Brent and WTI prices up by more than 5% last week, with Brent remaining close to six-month highs.

Tamas Varga, analyst at PVM Oil Associates, said that with the next — and possibly final — round of Iranian nuclear talks not taking place until Thursday, attention is shifting toward the US Supreme Court’s decision to cancel import tariffs and the subsequent government response.

US Customs and Border Protection said it would suspend collection of tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act starting at 12:01 a.m. Eastern Time (05:01 GMT) on Tuesday.

However, Trump said on Saturday that he would raise a temporary tariff from 10% to 15% on US imports from all countries, the maximum level allowed under the law, after the US Supreme Court struck down his previous tariff program.

Varga added that the weakness seen earlier in the day was a defensive move. He noted that with uncertainty continuing over possible US military intervention in Iran, the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, and now the US Supreme Court ruling, the direction of oil prices remains unclear, though volatility is guaranteed.

Iran indicated it is prepared to make concessions regarding its nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief and recognition of its right to enrich uranium, a senior Iranian official told Reuters ahead of the third round of nuclear talks between the two countries scheduled for Thursday.

In a research note, Morgan Stanley analysts said that despite higher prices in paper markets, the decline in spot differentials and weakness in physical market spreads suggest that pricing is being driven more by geopolitical concerns than by an actual supply shortage in the market.

The US dollar declined on Monday after the US Supreme Court issued a ruling canceling the tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump, triggering a new wave of policy uncertainty that was further amplified by concerns over a potential conflict with Iran.

The euro rose 0.2% against the dollar to $1.1808, while the British pound gained 0.3% to $1.3519. The dollar also fell 0.2% against the Japanese yen to 154.745 yen.

Brian Levitt, Global Market Strategist at Invesco, said that these initial moves appear to be rapid reactions to headlines rather than genuine signals of fundamental changes in the global economic landscape.

He added that the market’s initial reaction to the ruling could ultimately prove short-lived, given that several pathways remain available to keep tariffs in place.

The Supreme Court ruled on Friday that Trump had exceeded his authority in imposing broad tariffs, prompting him to criticize the court and announce a uniform 15% tariff on imports.

He also insisted that trade agreements involving higher tariffs with trading partners should remain in effect.

This uncertainty is expected to further complicate an already volatile foreign exchange environment, as traders navigate shifting interest rate expectations and escalating geopolitical tensions.

The alternative tariffs announced by Trump are set to remain in place for 150 days, and it remains unclear whether the United States must refund tariffs already paid by importers. The Supreme Court did not address this issue in its ruling.

Analysts expect years of litigation and a fresh round of uncertainty that could limit economic activity, as Trump seeks other methods to reimpose global tariffs more permanently.

On Sunday, the European Commission called on the United States to honor an agreement reached last year with the European Union that included zero tariffs on certain products such as aircraft and spare parts.

US trading partners in Asia were also studying the new uncertainty, similar to investors who had previously been surprised by market reactions to Trump’s trade tariffs — which, coincidentally, failed to reduce the US trade deficit.

Investors monitor Middle East tensions

The risk of a military conflict between the United States and Iran has added another layer of uncertainty to financial markets.

Although the two long-time rivals are scheduled to hold a third round of talks on Thursday regarding their nuclear dispute, Trump has ordered a major military buildup in the Middle East.

Goldman Sachs analysts wrote that rising tensions in the Middle East have revived questions about geopolitical hedging tools and the impact of commodity price shocks on currency markets.

Iran is among the world’s largest oil producers, and any military strikes against it would likely have repercussions across crude markets. A potential conflict could also disrupt shipping routes, as Tehran has previously threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly one-fifth of global oil flows pass.

Goldman Sachs analysts noted that the Swiss franc remains their preferred hedge against inflation. The franc rose 0.3% to 0.7736 against the dollar.