Nickel prices rose in Shanghai by over 3% on Thursday to a three-week high amid concerns about potential US sanctions on Russia that could hurt supplies. 

Nickel March futures at the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed 3.2% higher at 131,320 yuan per tonne, scaling January 29 highs. 

Nickel three-month futures at the London Metals Exchange rose to $16,990 a tonne, after a 3.6% surge in the previous session. 

US President Joe Bidewn said that Washington is preparing a big batch of new sanctions against Moscow on Friday, in turn triggering speculation on metals exported by Russia. 

Russia is the main producer for nickel and aluminum, with nickel mainly used in stainless steel manufacturing and new energy batteries. 

Risk appetite also improved after China’s central bank announced the biggest cut ever for mortgage interest rates to underpin the market. 

As for other metals, aluminum rose 0.6% to $2232, while copper added 0.6% to $8591, as zinc rose 0.8% to $2412, while lead rose 0.3% to $2083, while tin rose 0.4% to $26,395. 

Dollar stabilized against main rivals ahead of important manufacturing and services data for major economies worldwide. 

The dollar index stabilized at 104.04 as of 16:40 GMT, with a session-high at 104.1, and a low at 103.4. 

Nickel spot prices rose 2.8% in American trade as of 16:51 GMT to $16.972 thousand a tonne. 

Oil prices fell in European trade on Thursday off three-week highs on active profit-taking.

Prices are also pressured by US oversupply concerns especially as demand weakens, while earlier initial data showed a surge in crude inventories. 

Now traders await official data from the EIA later today, expected to show an inventory buildup for the fourth week in a row. 

Global Oil Prices

US crude fell 0.9% to $77.33 a barrel, while Brent shed 0.8% to $82.45 a barrel, with a session-high at $83.46. 

On Wednesday, US crude rose 1.1%, while Brent added 0.8%, edging near three-week highs.

US Crude Stocks 

Initial data from the American Petroleum Institute showed commercial crude stocks rose by 7.2 million barrels in the week ending February 16, the third buildup in a row, while analysts expected a build of 3.5 million barrels. 

Thus total stocks rose to 449.3 million barrels, the highest since mid January, in a negative sign for US demand. 

Now traders await official EIA data today, still expected to show a build of 3.5 million barrels. 

The Fed 

The Federal Reserve’s policy meeting showed that policymakers dismissed the odds of early rate cuts unless inflation proved to be moving sustainably towards 2%.

Following the minutes, the odds of a 0.25% US interest rate cut in March tumbled to just 4.5%, while the odds for a May cut fell to 37%, as the odds for a June cut fell to 71%.

Higher US rates hurt growth and economic performance and could weigh on fuel demand. 

Dollar fell in European trade on Thursday against a basket of major rivals, extending losses for the seventh straight session and hitting a three-week trough following the Fed’s minutes.

The Fed’s minutes for the January meeting only confirmed the speculation that the June meeting will be the time of the first rate cut. 

Now investors await important US data later today on unemployment claims and the manufacturing and services sector to get better clues about the state of the economy. 

The Index

The dollar index fell 0.5% to 103.43, the lowest since February 2, with a session-high at 103.99.

The index lost 0.1% on Wednesday, the sixth loss in a row, and the longest streak of daily losses this year.

The Fed 

The Federal Reserve’s policy meeting showed that policymakers dismissed the odds of early rate cuts unless inflation proved to be moving sustainably towards 2%.

The minutes showed the Fed is seeking to achieve full employment targets alongside 2% inflation in the long-term, with ongoing uncertainty about economic outlook. 

As for monetary policy in the future, the minutes asserted the cautious and data-based approach by Fed officials as the priority is given to economic stability and inflation control. 

US Rates

Following the minutes, the odds of a 0.25% US interest rate cut in March tumbled to just 4.5%, while the odds for a May cut fell to 37%, as the odds for a June cut fell to 71%.

Traders now expect 75 basis points of total Fed rate cuts this year, down from 150 basis points in previous forecasts.

Important Data

Now investors await a batch of important US data covering the labor, manufacturing, and services sectors to get better clues on the likely path ahead for Fed policies. 

US unemployment claims are expected up slightly to 217 thousand in the week ending February 17 from 212 thousand. 

The US manufacturing PMI is expected at 50.5 last month, down from 50.7. 

Nvidia released their financial results this week, showing a record profit of $12.3 billion in the fourth quarter, up 770% y/y on massive demand for AI chips.

The gains are expected to accelerate even more in this quarter, and will put Nvidia on the map as one of the most valuable enterprises in human history.

Record Earnings 

Nvidia reported record earnings of $22.1 billion in the last quarter, with yearly earnings also hitting a record $60.9 billion.

The company attributed the gains to generative AI and accelerating computing services throughout the world.

Strong Outlook 

The company now expects its earnings this quarter to hit $24 billion, above market estimates of $21.9 billion.

Prices Surge

The stock price surged 6% in after-hours trading, with the stock up 36% so far this year. 

 The stock is expected to hit a new record high of $700 in today’s session.