Nickel prices fell during Monday trading amid ongoing concerns about rising global supply, while markets also monitored moves in the US dollar following remarks by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, who hinted at an upcoming rate cut.

While base prices remain stable for now, nickel continues to show general weakness, keeping stainless steel surcharges at limited levels. Although prices have moved sideways in recent months, the longer-term multi-year trend still points downward.

At the same time, nickel inventories remain extremely high. Indonesia has maintained strong output, with nickel surpassing coal to become the country’s largest export in 2025. However, local demand there has already peaked, forcing some smelters to temporarily suspend operations amid low prices.

Although any slowdown in Indonesian supply could offer some support, the large global surplus persists, meaning smelters would need to cut production for an extended period before prices see a meaningful recovery.

Nickel stocks on the London Metal Exchange have risen by about 40,000 tons since the start of the year to reach 195,000 tons, driven by strong refining capacity from Chinese companies operating in Indonesia. Despite attempts to curb supply, overall market sentiment remains cautious, with any recovery still dependent on a major rebound in end-user demand.

Nickel market in Indonesia faces persistent surplus

Indonesia’s nickel sector remains under pressure, as government-set output quotas have exceeded actual demand, reinforcing the supply glut. Prices of nickel ore used in pyrometallurgy (thermal smelting) have declined, while nickel ore used in hydrometallurgy (wet smelting) has remained stable. High-grade ferronickel prices have also stayed steady, but smelter profit margins remain limited. Policymakers are considering potential interventions, but abundant supply and weak demand will likely cap any near-term price gains.

Chinese nickel market shows some resilience despite surplus

In China, nickel and stainless steel markets have displayed some resilience, even as overall demand remains weak and supply remains abundant. Government efforts to curb excess industrial capacity, along with expected seasonal changes in Philippine mining, may influence supply and pricing trends in the coming months.

Outlook

Markets are closely watching US monetary policy, Chinese stimulus measures, and seasonal shifts in Indonesian supply as potential factors driving nickel prices in the near term.

The dollar index rose by 0.2% at 15:24 GMT to 97.8 points, with a high of 98.0 and a low of 97.7.

As for trading, spot nickel contracts fell by 1.5% at 15:25 GMT to 14,960 dollars per ton.

Bitcoin price fell below 112,000 dollars during Monday trading, erasing the sharp gains sparked by cautious remarks from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, while Ethereum, the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency, traded near record levels.

The world’s largest cryptocurrency last traded down 3% at 111,610 dollars as of 06:21 a.m. Eastern time (10:21 GMT). The coin had fallen in the previous session to nearly a six-week low of around 111,000 dollars, as traders took profits after Friday’s surge.

Bitcoin erases gains from rate cut bets

Bitcoin jumped above 117,000 dollars on Friday following Powell’s cautious comments at the Jackson Hole symposium, where he acknowledged rising risks to the labor market and hinted that “the shift in the balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance.”

Powell’s signal of a possible rate cut in September boosted investor sentiment, driving up risk assets including cryptocurrencies. But Bitcoin later retreated as investors moved to take profits, with analysts pointing to resistance levels and a phase of consolidation as factors behind the decline.

Japanese finance minister pledges supportive framework for cryptocurrencies

Japanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato said on Monday that the government would work to establish a suitable environment for digital assets. He noted that cryptocurrencies could be part of diversified investment portfolios, signaling an evolving stance toward broader market adoption.

His remarks came amid ongoing efforts to clarify regulatory rules and investor protection mechanisms in the sector. The approach reflects Japan’s commitment to balancing innovation with financial stability, at a time when authorities increasingly recognize the growing role of crypto assets in investment strategies.

Silver prices fell in the European market on Monday for the first time in four days, giving up a four-week high, amid active correction and profit-taking, in addition to pressure from the rebound of the US dollar against a basket of global currencies.

After cautious remarks by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at Jackson Hole raised the likelihood of a US interest rate cut in September, investors this week await more new evidence on monetary easing in the United States.

Price Overview

Silver prices today: Silver fell by 0.45% to 38.72 dollars, from the opening level of 38.89 dollars, recording a high of 39.00 dollars.

At Friday’s settlement, silver gained 1.95%, its third consecutive daily advance, hitting a four-week high of 39.07 dollars an ounce, supported by the decline in the dollar and US yields.

The white metal posted a 2.3% weekly gain last week, its second weekly rise in the past three weeks, amid improved demand for non-yielding assets.

US Dollar

The dollar index rose on Monday by 0.25%, starting to recover from a three-week low of 97.56 points, reflecting a rebound in the US currency against a basket of global currencies.

In addition to buying from low levels, the US dollar strengthened at the beginning of the week, as markets await further evidence on the likelihood of a US rate cut in September.

US Interest Rates

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said at Jackson Hole on Friday that shifting risk balances may require policy adjustments, with current indicators showing increasing downside risks to the labor market.

Following those comments, and according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool: the pricing of a 25-basis-point US rate cut in September rose from 75% to 87%, while the pricing of holding rates unchanged declined from 25% to 13%.

The pricing of a 25-basis-point US rate cut in October rose from 85% to 94%, while the pricing of holding rates unchanged fell from 15% to 6%.

To reprice these expectations, investors are awaiting important US economic data this week, particularly the Personal Consumption Expenditures report on Friday, along with a series of comments from Fed officials.

Oil prices rose on Monday as traders weighed concerns that Russian supplies could be disrupted by additional US sanctions and Ukrainian attacks targeting Russia’s energy infrastructure.

Brent crude futures climbed 39 cents, or 0.6%, to 68.12 dollars by 10:23 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate futures rose 42 cents, or 0.7%, to 64.08 dollars.

Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, said: “The market is somewhat concerned that these peace negotiations will not yield any results.” He added: “Expectations point to supply exceeding demand in the autumn months, but in the short term this scenario is being challenged by the risk of geopolitical disruptions.”

US President Donald Trump warned again on Friday that he would impose sanctions on Russia if there was no progress toward a peace settlement in Ukraine within two weeks. He also said he could impose harsh tariffs on India over its purchases of Russian oil.

Over the weekend, US Vice President J.D. Vance said Russia had made “significant concessions” toward a negotiated settlement in the three-and-a-half-year-long war.

Ukraine, which has repeatedly targeted Russian energy infrastructure during the war, launched a drone strike on Sunday that ignited a massive fire at the fuel export terminal in Ust-Luga, according to Russian officials. Another fire broke out at Russia’s Novoshakhtinsk refinery, caused by a Ukrainian drone, and continued for the fourth consecutive day on Sunday, according to the region’s acting governor. The refinery mainly exports fuel and has an annual capacity of 5 million metric tons of oil, equivalent to about 100,000 barrels per day.

Concerns about Russian supply disruptions were tempered by OPEC+ rolling back a series of production cuts, adding millions of barrels to the market, according to Saxo Bank. Eight members of the oil exporters’ group are scheduled to meet on September 7, where they will agree on a further increase in output.

Risk appetite also improved after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell signaled on Friday the possibility of a rate cut at the US central bank’s September meeting.

However, Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst at brokerage Phillip Nova, said both Brent and WTI prices appear to lack momentum, adding that markets are becoming more convinced that Trump’s tariffs will hurt economic growth.