Nickel prices jumped during Thursday’s trading after Indonesia, the world’s largest producer of the metal, approved imposing taxes on export shipments of the battery material.

On Wednesday, nickel futures rose as much as 2.7% on the London Metal Exchange after Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati announced that President Prabowo Subianto had approved the imposition of export levies on coal and nickel.

The minister noted that discussions are still ongoing regarding the precise tax rates.

In US trading on Thursday, spot nickel contracts rose 2.2% to $17,190 per ton as of 15:21 GMT.

Bitcoin traded below the psychological $70,000 level, declining by about 1.6% over the past 24 hours.

This performance came after an overnight rally that pushed the cryptocurrency to around $71,500, supported by hopes for a diplomatic breakthrough in the conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran. However, subsequent uncertainty over the direction of peace talks halted that momentum.

Renewed uncertainty pushed oil prices back up to around $103 per barrel on Thursday morning, weighing on Asian equities and overall market sentiment.

Resilience despite volatility

Despite recent volatility, Bitcoin has shown notable resilience, outperforming gold during the latest wave of geopolitical tensions, even as it remains in a corrective trend since its record high in October 2025 above $126,000.

The total cryptocurrency market capitalization currently stands at around $2.48 trillion, down approximately 1.7% over the past day. Bitcoin has also fallen more than 40% from its peak, but this decline has come amid strong institutional demand.

Continued institutional inflows

Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds in the United States recorded five consecutive weeks of net inflows, totaling $2.5 billion during March, led by BlackRock’s IBIT fund, marking the longest inflow streak since July 2025.

Data indicates that institutional interest has not significantly weakened, with funds recording inflows of about $458 million earlier this month following a period of outflows.

This reflects continued capital rotation in response to macroeconomic developments, as Bitcoin is increasingly viewed as an asset sensitive to interest rates and global liquidity.

Long-term accumulation

On-chain data, meanwhile, shows net Bitcoin outflows from exchanges over the past month, indicating a shift toward long-term holding as investors move assets off centralized platforms.

This transition from short-term speculation to gradual accumulation could support a future upward move, particularly with continued fund inflows.

Technical outlook

Analyst Rachel Lucas said institutional support remains strong, but a technical breakout has yet to be confirmed, noting that a move above $73,500 with strong trading volumes remains a key condition for a clear bullish trend.

She added that institutional investors are treating current declines as buying opportunities rather than exit signals, despite the price being down more than 40% from its peak.

As the relationship between Bitcoin and broader macro markets continues to evolve, the current trend remains a recovery within a sideways range rather than the start of a confirmed bullish wave.

Oil prices rose more than 3% on Thursday, recovering losses from the previous session, as concerns grew over the continuation of the conflict in the Middle East and the potential for further supply disruptions.

Brent crude futures rose by $3.51, or 3.4%, to $105.73 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude increased by $3.04, or 3.4%, to $94.36 per barrel.

Both benchmarks had fallen more than 2% in Wednesday’s session.

Iran’s foreign minister said the country is reviewing a US proposal to end the war but does not intend to enter talks to end the conflict.

Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump warned that the United States would launch more severe strikes against Iran if it does not accept that it has been “militarily defeated,” according to remarks from the White House.

Reports indicated that the US Department of Defense is planning to deploy thousands of airborne troops to the Gulf region, giving Washington additional options for a ground offensive, alongside Marine forces that have already been sent.

Analysts said that continued military escalation, including troop deployments and new strikes, along with restrictions on oil tanker movements, continues to weigh on global energy markets.

Trump’s 15-point plan

The US plan, which was sent via Pakistan, includes provisions such as removing Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium, halting enrichment, limiting its ballistic missile program, and reducing support for its regional allies, according to informed Israeli sources.

The conflict has led to a near halt in shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, which accounts for about one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas supplies, in what the International Energy Agency described as the largest disruption to oil supply ever.

Japan has requested the agency to coordinate the release of additional oil reserves in anticipation of a prolonged crisis.

Additional pressure on supplies

Concerns over global supply have intensified as around 40% of Russia’s oil export capacity has been halted due to Ukrainian drone attacks and tanker detentions.

A Turkish oil tanker was also attacked by a naval drone near the Bosphorus Strait in Istanbul, causing an explosion.

In Iraq, oil production declined sharply as storage facilities filled up and exports were disrupted.

On the other hand, data showed that US crude oil inventories increased by 6.9 million barrels to 456.2 million barrels in the week ending March 20, the highest level since June 2024 and above analysts’ expectations.

Gold prices fell more than 2% in European trading on Thursday, resuming losses that had paused over the past two days, and moving lower toward their lowest level in four months, under pressure from the rise of the US dollar against a basket of global currencies.

This comes amid fading optimism about the possibility of ending the war in the Middle East in the near term, as uncertainty surrounds negotiations between the United States and Iran, a situation that is currently pushing global oil prices higher and renewing concerns about global inflation.

Price Overview

Gold prices today: gold fell 2.1% to $4,412.90, down from the session opening level of $4,506.04, after reaching a high of $4,544.55.

At Wednesday’s settlement, gold rose 0.7%, marking its second consecutive daily gain, as recovery efforts continued from a four-month low of $4,098.23 per ounce.

US dollar

The dollar index rose about 0.2% on Thursday, extending gains for the third consecutive session, reflecting the continued strength of the US currency against a basket of major and minor currencies.

As is widely known, a stronger US dollar makes gold, which is priced in dollars, less attractive to buyers holding other currencies.

The rally comes as investors continue buying the dollar as a preferred safe-haven asset, with the Iran war approaching its fifth week and the difficulty of reaching a ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran.

Global oil prices

Global oil prices rose about 3% on Thursday, extending gains for the second consecutive day, amid renewed concerns over supply disruptions from the Middle East and the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Rising oil prices are likely to renew concerns about accelerating inflation across most parts of the world and increase pressure on policymakers at global central banks to raise interest rates.

Iran war developments

US President Donald Trump said that Iran is making strong efforts to reach an agreement to end nearly four weeks of fighting, contradicting remarks by Iran’s foreign minister, who said the country is reviewing a US proposal but does not intend to hold talks to end the conflict.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said that although there is no dialogue or negotiations with the United States, various messages have been exchanged through intermediaries.

Araghchi added in an interview with state television on Wednesday that conveying messages through friendly countries and clarifying positions or issuing necessary warnings does not constitute negotiations or dialogue.

Trump later said on Wednesday during an event in Washington that Iranian leaders are “negotiating” and are eager to reach a deal, but are reluctant to say so publicly.

The New York Times reported that the United States has sent Iran a plan consisting of 15 key points to end the war in the Middle East.

Sources said a one-month ceasefire will be announced under a mechanism being developed by Witkoff and Kushner, with negotiations on the fifteen points to take place during the ceasefire period.

US interest rates

Amid rising oil prices, and according to the CME FedWatch tool, markets reduced pricing for the probability of keeping US interest rates unchanged at the April meeting from 96% to 93%, while the probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike increased from 4% to 7%.

To reassess these expectations, investors are closely monitoring further economic data releases from the United States, in addition to tracking comments from Federal Reserve officials.

Gold outlook

Rajat Bhattacharya, chief investment strategist at Standard Chartered, said that although gold initially rose due to safe-haven demand at the start of the Iran conflict, prices have recently declined.

Bhattacharya added that this pattern is often repeated during periods of market stress, as investors raise liquidity to meet margin calls or take profits where possible, while the recent strength of the US dollar has also weighed on demand for gold.

SPDR fund

Holdings of the SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, declined by 0.57 metric tons on Wednesday, bringing the total to 1,052.42 metric tons, the lowest level since December 15.