Nickel prices edged lower on Wednesday, pressured by a stronger US dollar against most major currencies and mixed forecasts surrounding the industrial metal.

UBS analysts forecast a global nickel surplus persisting through 2026, despite recent announcements of production cuts. The bank’s report noted a “significant surplus” in the market from 2022 to 2024, stating that current nickel prices already reflect weak fundamental outlooks. Analysts also see little near-term recovery in demand, citing lower stainless steel output and a diminishing likelihood of a rebound in battery-related demand.

While supply-side adjustments have made some progress toward rebalancing the market in 2024 — including 250,000 tonnes of announced production cuts and 140,000 tonnes of delayed projects — UBS believes these efforts remain insufficient. Indonesia continues to add new production capacity despite some constraints in ore availability.

Although global demand for nickel has shown resilience compared to other base metals in recent years, oversupply has forced output cuts in the stainless steel sector in both China and Indonesia. UBS projects nickel demand will grow at a solid pace of 4% to 5% annually between 2025 and 2028, down from 9% annually from 2021 to 2024.

UBS expects smaller market surpluses between 2025 and 2028, but they will remain “large enough to lead to a build-up in refined nickel inventories on the London Metal Exchange (LME).” The report notes that current LME nickel prices sit in the top 75% of the cost curve — a historically supportive level — but warns that nickel has previously traded within the cost curve for extended periods.

Second Half of 2025 Could Bring Rebound

Analysts now expect a significant price rebound for nickel in the second half of 2025 due to a tightening ore market and mine closures in Indonesia.

In mid-June 2025, the Indonesian government revoked mining licenses for several nickel mines after discovering that extraction was occurring on legally protected islands. While these four mines represented a small portion of Indonesia’s total annual output, they contained much of the country's remaining high-grade nickel ore reserves.

The declining quality of Indonesian ore — especially medium and high-grade deposits — had already begun to negatively affect Nickel Pig Iron (NPI) production even before the mining suspensions.

EU Customs Reform and Dollar Strength

Separately, EU member states agreed on a broad overhaul of the bloc’s customs system aimed at aligning with digital transformation and global trade dynamics. However, the first phase of reforms — limited to e-commerce firms — will not take effect until 2028 as part of a long-term strategy.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index rose 0.6% to 99.4 by 15:28 GMT, hitting a high of 99.5 and a low of 98.7.

As for commodities trading, spot nickel prices declined by less than 0.1% to $14,900 per tonne at 15:39 GMT.

Bitcoin prices edged slightly lower in Wednesday trading, extending losses for the week as traders remained largely cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision and the August 1 deadline set by President Donald Trump to impose new tariffs.

The world’s largest cryptocurrency fell 0.8% to $117,911.3 by 01:32 a.m. Eastern Time (05:32 GMT), after trading relatively flat following its mid-July rally past the $123,000 mark.

While Bitcoin remains on track for strong July gains, the recent surge has left it vulnerable to profit-taking. It also received limited support from “Strategy” (the new name for MicroStrategy, listed on Nasdaq as MSTR), despite the company announcing it had raised $2.5 billion to purchase 21,021 bitcoins.

Fed decision and tariff threats limit crypto momentum

Markets broadly adopted a wait-and-see stance ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy decision on Wednesday. The central bank is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged, despite mounting pressure from Trump and his allies to begin cutting rates.

Some analysts believe the Fed may hint at a less hawkish outlook, given rising concerns over the economic impact of Trump’s tariffs and signs of a cooling labor market.

Still, uncertainty around the Fed’s direction has kept traders defensive. Bitcoin posted only limited gains even after the recent trade deal between the US and the European Union.

Although the EU deal marks progress in Trump’s broader effort to restructure global trade, many major economies still face the threat of steep US tariffs starting Friday, August 1. Trump has made clear he does not intend to extend the deadline, which could trigger duties ranging from 15% to 50% on several key trading partners.

While interest rates and tariffs do not directly affect cryptocurrencies, they significantly influence overall market sentiment, which in turn impacts speculative assets.

“Strategy” raises $2.5 billion, buys 21,021 bitcoins

On Tuesday, Strategy – led by Michael Saylor – announced it had raised approximately $2.5 billion through a new issuance of preferred shares.

The company used the proceeds to acquire around 21,021 bitcoins at an average purchase price of $117,256 each, bringing its total holdings to 628,791 bitcoins.

Kraken reportedly seeks $500 million at $15 billion valuation

The Information reported Tuesday evening that cryptocurrency exchange Kraken – ranked 14th globally by daily trading volume – is aiming to raise $500 million in a funding round targeting a $15 billion valuation.

The move comes in tandem with similar efforts by other exchanges, as platforms seek to capitalize on renewed institutional interest in digital assets. This shift, alongside optimism for more crypto-friendly policies under a second Trump term, has helped fuel Bitcoin’s strong 2025 rally.

PayPal sparks crypto momentum with 400M-user payment integration

PayPal ignited another wave of excitement in the crypto market after announcing it will enable more than 400 million users to make payments with Bitcoin and over 100 other cryptocurrencies.

This isn’t just a minor app update – it could mark a turning point in Bitcoin’s evolution into a mainstream payment method, paving the way for the long-awaited goal of hitting $250,000 by 2025.

Part of the new “Pay with Crypto” initiative, the feature allows US merchants to accept crypto payments using wallets like MetaMask, Coinbase, and Kraken. It supports instant conversion of cryptocurrencies into fiat or stablecoins like PYUSD at the moment of purchase.

The system makes crypto payments seamless for businesses of all sizes, offering new models for fast settlement, low fees, and even a 4% annual yield on PYUSD balances.

With instant conversion, merchants won’t have to worry about price volatility – they’ll receive payments in dollars, while crypto-savvy consumers can pay with their coins. This removes a major obstacle to real-world crypto adoption and brings Bitcoin closer to functioning as an actual currency rather than “gold in a vault.”

MicroStrategy continues to dominate headlines with its relentless bitcoin buying spree. As the leading cryptocurrency edges near its all-time highs, many wonder why Michael Saylor and his team have yet to take profits.

Instead, MicroStrategy’s strategy appears clear: accumulate as much bitcoin as possible — regardless of price or market volatility.

Another Major Purchase Round

On Tuesday, co-founder and executive chairman Michael Saylor announced via X that MicroStrategy had acquired an additional 21,021 bitcoins between July 21 and July 28. The purchase totaled approximately $2.5 billion, with an average price of $117,256 per bitcoin.

Following this latest acquisition, MicroStrategy now holds a record-breaking 628,791 bitcoins, purchased at an average price of $73,273 each, with a total value of approximately $46.08 billion.

A High-Stakes Strategy

Saylor first committed to bitcoin in 2020 as a hedge against inflation. Initially, the company used its cash reserves to buy bitcoin, but later turned to convertible debt and equity offerings to fund further purchases.

In 2024, Saylor reaffirmed his commitment by announcing plans to raise $42 billion over the next three years to continue expanding bitcoin holdings.

So far in 2024, bitcoin has returned 64%, a fact Saylor celebrates. He views each additional bitcoin as a powerful growth lever, positioning MicroStrategy as a unique case in financial history.

This aggressive approach has drawn admiration and curiosity in equal measure from crypto investors. By buying bitcoin near historic highs, MicroStrategy sends a strong message: the asset remains valuable even at elevated prices.

Moreover, the company is transparent about its objectives — to maximize shareholder value by making bitcoin a central pillar of its financial strategy.

Metaplanet Follows Suit

Japanese firm Metaplanet has also expanded its bitcoin holdings, acquiring 780 additional bitcoins between July 15 and July 27 for $92.53 million — at an average price of $118,622 per coin.

With this move, the company’s total bitcoin holdings now stand at 17,132 units, worth roughly $1.73 billion, with an average acquisition cost of $101,029 per coin.

This mirrors MicroStrategy’s bold approach and reflects growing institutional confidence in digital assets.

Oil prices fell on Wednesday as investors closely monitored US President Donald Trump’s latest ultimatum to Russia over the war in Ukraine, as well as his threats to impose tariffs on countries that continue trading Russian oil.

Brent crude futures for the most actively traded contract dropped by 58 cents, or 0.81%, to $71.10 a barrel by 10:14 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude also declined by 58 cents, or 0.84%, to $68.63 per barrel.

The September Brent contract, which expires later on Wednesday, fell 59 cents, or 0.81%, to $71.92 a barrel.

This drop follows a strong session on Tuesday, when oil futures closed at their highest levels since June 20.

On Tuesday, Trump announced that he would begin taking action against Russia — including imposing secondary tariffs of 100% on its trading partners — if there is no progress in ending the war within the next 10 to 12 days. This new ultimatum significantly shortens the previous deadline of 50 days.

John Evans, analyst at PVM Associates, noted in a briefing that China and India are the primary beneficiaries of Russian crude, but India is more exposed to potential fallout.

He added, “Alternative sources of crude will need to be found, and while Saudi Arabia and its OPEC partners are willing and able to fill the gap, the time required for this adjustment will offer additional short-term support to prices.”

Analysts at JPMorgan wrote that China is unlikely to comply with US sanctions, while India has signaled its readiness to do so. This divergence could impact up to 2.3 million barrels per day of Russian oil exports.

Vandana Hari, founder of oil analytics firm Vanda Insights, said: “The supply risk premium — which has added about $4 to $5 per barrel in recent days — is expected to remain unless President Putin takes conciliatory steps.”

Meanwhile, US Treasury Secretary Scott Besant warned during a press conference in Stockholm that China — the largest buyer of Russian oil — could face substantial tariffs if it continues purchasing oil from Moscow.

However, Barclays analyst Amarpreet Singh expressed skepticism that Russian barrels will exit the market anytime soon.

He explained that low energy prices remain a top priority for the Trump administration, and Russia’s ability to circumvent Western sanctions since the invasion of Ukraine has made its exports more resilient against price cap mechanisms.