Nickel prices edged higher on Wednesday, supported by a stronger US dollar against most major currencies and mixed market expectations for the industrial metal.

UBS analysis last week indicated that the global nickel market is likely to remain in surplus until 2026, despite recently announced production cuts.

The report noted a “significant surplus” from 2022 through 2024, adding that current prices and market behavior already reflect weak fundamentals. Analysts do not anticipate a near-term demand recovery, citing declining stainless steel output and limited prospects for battery demand growth.

On the supply side, some progress toward rebalancing the market was made in 2024, with around 250,000 tonnes in production cuts and project delays totaling another 140,000 tonnes. Still, UBS believes these measures are insufficient, as Indonesia continues to add new production capacity despite some limitations in ore availability.

Although global nickel demand has shown relative resilience compared to other base metals in recent years, oversupply has led to output reductions in the stainless steel sector in both China and Indonesia. UBS expects nickel demand to grow by 4–5% annually between 2025 and 2028, down from 9% annually between 2021 and 2024.

While UBS forecasts smaller surpluses in the 2025–2028 period, they are still expected to be “large enough to drive up refined nickel inventories on the London Metal Exchange (LME).” The report also pointed out that the current nickel price sits in the upper quartile (75%) of the global cost curve — a level that has historically offered price support — but warned that nickel has traded within the cost curve range for extended periods before.

Second Half Outlook

Analysts now anticipate a significant rebound in nickel prices during the second half of 2025, driven by a shortage of nickel ore and mine closures in Indonesia.

In mid-June 2025, the Indonesian government revoked mining licenses for several nickel mines after discovering they were operating on protected islands, where mining is legally prohibited. Though these four mines represented a small share of Indonesia’s total annual output, they accounted for a large portion of the country's remaining high-grade nickel ore reserves.

Even before the mining halt, declining ore quality — particularly medium and high-grade deposits — had already begun to weigh on Nickel Pig Iron (NPI) production.

Separately, EU member states agreed to a sweeping overhaul of customs procedures to align with digital and global trade developments. However, the first phase of changes will not take effect until 2028 and will initially apply only to e-commerce firms, as part of a long-term plan to reform the EU’s customs framework.

Meanwhile, the US dollar index rose 0.2% to 98.3 by 16:20 GMT, reaching a session high of 98.4 and a low of 97.9.

In trading, spot nickel prices climbed 0.5% to $15,007 per tonne by 16:30 GMT.

Bitcoin prices showed little movement on Thursday, while the broader cryptocurrency markets remained trapped in a narrow range amid persistent concerns over rising US tariffs, prompting investors to remain risk-averse.

Reciprocal tariffs introduced by US President Donald Trump officially went into effect on Thursday, imposing levies ranging from 10% to 50% on several major global economies. On Wednesday, Trump also announced a 100% tax on all semiconductor imports, set to be enforced in the coming weeks.

Bitcoin rose by 0.3% to $114,521.4 as of 01:31 a.m. Eastern Time (05:31 GMT).

Bitcoin Stuck in Tight Range Amid Tariff and Economic Uncertainty

The world’s largest cryptocurrency has mostly traded between $110,000 and $115,000 over the past week, as overall risk appetite weakened.

While there have been some bullish signals — notably continued accumulation by major holders such as Strategy (NASDAQ: MSTR) and Metaplanet Inc (Tokyo: 3350) — these factors have not been enough to spark a breakout, especially after Bitcoin’s pullback from record highs above $123,000 in mid-July.

Broader risk sentiment has been dampened by concerns over the economic impact of Trump’s tariffs, alongside signs of slowing global growth.

Last week’s disappointing US employment data was a key flashpoint for markets. While it boosted expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, it also raised fears of a broader slowdown in the US economy.

Although crypto markets are not directly impacted by tariffs or economic data, their speculative nature makes them sensitive to swings in market sentiment.

Bitcoin has also faced persistent profit-taking following its recent highs.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs See Four Straight Days of Outflows

Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) saw net outflows for four consecutive days through Tuesday, with a total of nearly $1.5 billion exiting the funds, according to data from aggregator SoSoValue.

While there was a modest $91.55 million inflow on Wednesday, it was not enough to offset prior outflows.

Trump’s Tariff Threats Weigh on Bitcoin Sentiment

Trump’s reciprocal tariffs came into effect Thursday. Over the week, Bitcoin traded within a narrow band between $113,000 and $116,000, highlighting market indecision as traders awaited a major catalyst. Any new trade-related developments could trigger fresh volatility in crypto markets.

According to research firm K33 Research, Bitcoin’s 30-day volatility hit a one-year low of 1.33%, while its 7-day volatility stood at 1.2%, following a nearly two-year low of 0.76% recorded on July 30 — the lowest since September 2023.

Despite the lack of a clear trend and subdued volatility, growing conviction that the Federal Reserve will resume rate cuts in September is adding optimism for riskier assets like Bitcoin.

According to CME’s FedWatch tool, market participants now see over a 90% chance that the Fed will lower borrowing costs in its next policy meeting. Traders also expect at least two more 25-basis-point cuts by year-end.

Separately, a $58 billion US bond auction showed the weakest foreign demand in a year, forcing domestic banks and investors to absorb the excess — an early signal that if the trend persists, the Fed may face pressure to resume quantitative easing, a scenario that could boost Bitcoin’s appeal as a hedge.

Signs of Rebounding Institutional Demand

Data from SoSoValue shows tentative signs of institutional interest. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a modest $91.55 million inflow on Wednesday, ending the four-day outflow streak. However, flows remain well below levels seen around July 10 — just before Bitcoin reached its all-time high of $123,218 on July 14.

Low-Volume Price Zones Emerge as New Accumulation Ranges

Analytics firm Glassnode reported Wednesday that Bitcoin has dropped below the lower limit of the current accumulation zone at $116,000, entering a low-liquidity “air gap” region between $110,000 and $116,000. Historically, such zones often become accumulation areas where buyers step in at perceived discounts.

The report also noted that the short-term holder (STH) spent output profit ratio (SOPR) dropped to 45%, below the neutral threshold, indicating a relatively balanced market. Around 70% of the short-term Bitcoin supply remains in profit, with a near-even mix between profit-taking and loss realization.

Bitcoin Price Forecast: Continued Consolidation Likely

Bitcoin closed below the lower consolidation boundary of $116,000 at the end of July, then dropped about 3% over the next two days to test its 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) near $113,182. This EMA aligns closely with the prior swing high of $111,980, marking a key support area.

Prices have since rebounded slightly and were trading around $114,900 as of Thursday.

If Bitcoin manages a daily close above $116,000, it could target the key psychological level of $120,000.

The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits around 50, signaling market indecision, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains bearish after a negative crossover on July 23.

If Bitcoin closes below the 50-day EMA at $113,182, further downside could test the prior peak from May 22 at $111,980.

The Bank of England on Thursday released details of the interest rate vote following the August 7 meeting, showing that 5 members voted in favor of a 25 basis point rate cut, while 4 members voted to keep rates unchanged.

The vote outcome contradicted market expectations, which had anticipated that 8 members would support a 25 basis point cut, with only one member voting to hold rates steady.

The Bank of England on Thursday announced its interest rate decision following the August 7 meeting, cutting rates by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00% — the lowest level since February 2023. The move was in line with market expectations and marks the third rate cut by the Bank of England this year.